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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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  • mappy pinned this topic

We needed a new thread badly - time for some new mojo.  

The persistence of the -PNA is quite something on the 6z GEFS.  But on the plus side, ridging in the NAO/AO domains continues into early January with low heights rotating through the 50/50 region quite consistently.  As the -EPO shifts east some, it pushes the WC trough which helps to mute the SE ridge.  You’d think there’d be some chances with this look.

image.thumb.png.815ac799286d8748fb3f16e82cf3200b.png

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5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

We needed a new thread badly - time for some new mojo.  

The persistence of the -PNA is quite something on the 6z GEFS.  But on the plus side, ridging in the NAO/AO domains continues into early January with low heights rotating through the 50/50 region quite consistently.  As the -EPO shifts east some, it pushes the WC trough which helps to mute the SE ridge.  You’d think there’d be some chances with this look.

image.thumb.png.815ac799286d8748fb3f16e82cf3200b.png

I like that pattern a lot. I don’t think that would be a dry pattern.

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We needed a new thread badly - time for some new mojo.  
The persistence of the -PNA is quite something on the 6z GEFS.  But on the plus side, ridging in the NAO/AO domains continues into early January with low heights rotating through the 50/50 region quite consistently.  As the -EPO shifts east some, it pushes the WC trough which helps to mute the SE ridge.  You’d think there’d be some chances with this look.
image.thumb.png.815ac799286d8748fb3f16e82cf3200b.png
Ice storm
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3 minutes ago, Ji said:
40 minutes ago, nj2va said:
We needed a new thread badly - time for some new mojo.  
The persistence of the -PNA is quite something on the 6z GEFS.  But on the plus side, ridging in the NAO/AO domains continues into early January with low heights rotating through the 50/50 region quite consistently.  As the -EPO shifts east some, it pushes the WC trough which helps to mute the SE ridge.  You’d think there’d be some chances with this look.
image.thumb.png.815ac799286d8748fb3f16e82cf3200b.png

Ice storm

And maybe some front end thumps. I agree

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1 hour ago, Ji said:
2 hours ago, nj2va said:

We needed a new thread badly - time for some new mojo.  
The persistence of the -PNA is quite something on the 6z GEFS.  But on the plus side, ridging in the NAO/AO domains continues into early January with low heights rotating through the 50/50 region quite consistently.  As the -EPO shifts east some, it pushes the WC trough which helps to mute the SE ridge.  You’d think there’d be some chances with this look.

Ice storm

Can you share the features at 500 that favor an ice storm in this setup?  Would like to know what to look for.

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1 hour ago, nj2va said:

Can you share the features at 500 that favor an ice storm in this setup?  Would like to know what to look for.

A bit of a southwest flow into confluence in the east is my take. Likely surface cold in the east with warm air pushing moisture into it. Seems like a perfect cad setup to me.

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Pink on the GFS ensembles now through 168hr 7 days. I've been watching these long term models every day since probably 2001, and I've never seen that deep and long of a 500mb anomaly. And, it's at 55N degrees! 

Some perspective: Dec 1 - Jan 3 will come in at +380dm. In 75 years Since 1948:

2. is +280 in 2010

3. is +230 in 1955. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Nice gefs run 

Was about to post the same. EPO re-establishes itself just after the new year and connects to the NAO. 50/50 heights remain low throughout. Would love to see that EPO ridge shift just a little east though.

Even so...that cold in NW Canada gets released and pushes to the SE. We also see the increased precip anomalies from the Tennessee Valley into the Mid-Atlantic towards the end of the run. That's another thing that's been noticeable for quite a few runs now.

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