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December 2021


MJO812
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13 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Don't Try to Pretty Her Up.......THE UGLY PIG   "DecemberNita" comes to the party already dolled up in  "Red Rouge" lipstick!

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.202112.gif

given the cold water south of Alaska that is a possible outcome.  Seems that AK has some cold winters when that cold pool is present and we torch

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33 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The December long range forecasts were looking more interesting at the start of December last year.

 

arent second year la ninas usually really bad for us?

its la ninas that come after el ninos that are really good

and we are in the middle of the negative pdo cycle anyway

 

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11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

arent second year la ninas usually really bad for us?

its la ninas that come after el ninos that are really good

and we are in the middle of the negative pdo cycle anyway

 

We are basically in the stretch of another 1971-1975 or 1949-1956 the last few years...in general you are better off being out west.  I think once we can get the AMO to flip negative we might be better off...not sure the Pac state is changing anytime soon...even El Nino winters right now might act La Nina like

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48 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

arent second year la ninas usually really bad for us?

its la ninas that come after el ninos that are really good

and we are in the middle of the negative pdo cycle anyway

 

It’s tough to generalize about ENSO sequences during the winter. Last winter was more like an El Niño than a La Niña. Something happened in the late summer this year which lead to the supercharged fall +EPO vortex. That’s what caused the record -PDO drop. So the Pacific Jet is setting records more than we would typically see from just a La Niña alone. This is pretty much the opposite of the 13-14 and 14-15 record NE Pacific warm blob and +PDO/+NPM. Those record warm SSTs were driven by the record -EPO blocking. So the North Pacific has experienced unprecedented volatility in a single decade. Expressions of ENSO states have often been influenced and altered by these extreme pattern swings. Past analogs don’t really do what has been happening over the last decade justice.

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2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

given the cold water south of Alaska that is a possible outcome.  Seems that AK has some cold winters when that cold pool is present and we torch

That’ll be the outcome this winter with no NAO help. We need something to slow the PAC jet down. We see already how it’s blasting into the lower 48 but there’s been some help from Atlantic blocking. That might be going away soon. 

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The biggest question for all of winter is whether this la nina behaves more East based or more central Pacific based. Negative PDO plus East based la nina is a -NAO signal. +NAO for central based. This relationship is for JFM.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/30/9/jcli-d-16-0376.1.xml?tab_body=fulltext-display#fig3

full-jcli-d-16-0376.1-f2.thumb.jpg.03032b674b381b839edafc5ca0c80583.jpg

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1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

I can't believe people are already panicking.  Maybe this is a normal winter for us where it snows after winter.

I don’t know if I’d call it panic, but the guidance is looking pretty unfriendly for pre-Xmas cold and snow over the past few days.  Reality bites sometimes.  I still think we’ll get our chances between boring periods.  

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12 hours ago, bluewave said:

The December long range forecasts were looking more interesting at the start of December last year.

 

Last night’s ensembles (EPS, GEFS, GEPS) were extremely ugly, +EPO, +AO, -PNA, +NAO, as far as the eye can see and they all have lost the -WPO look they had been advertising as well. The new CFS and CANSIPS runs for the month of December were equally as terrible 

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4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Last night’s ensembles (EPS, GEFS, GEPS) were extremely ugly, +EPO, +AO, -PNA, +NAO, as far as the eye can see and they all have lost the -WPO look they had been advertising as well. The new CFS and CANSIPS runs for the month of December were equally as terrible 

Keep the golf courses open!

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November ended at 46.2[-1.8].

The first 8 days of December are averaging  44degs.(39/49), or +4.

The GFS does not even reach 32 for the next 17 days!  Wet snow near the 9th?   CAR  DEC2015 WHERE R U?

Reached 42 here yesterday.

Today: 45-48, wind w., m. sunny.

42*(56%RH) here at 6am.     41* at 7am.       44* at 9am.       46* at 10am.      48* at Noon.     50* at 2pm.

 

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34 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Last night’s ensembles (EPS, GEFS, GEPS) were extremely ugly, +EPO, +AO, -PNA, +NAO, as far as the eye can see and they all have lost the -WPO look they had been advertising as well. The new CFS and CANSIPS runs for the month of December were equally as terrible 

The EPS weeklies first started showing this pattern for mid-December back on November 11th.

1699E45A-C6C5-4FD7-98E4-0949B3519287.thumb.png.372bc01aed02b5c3f83afdf6bb9c3c1d.png

 

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53 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Last night’s ensembles (EPS, GEFS, GEPS) were extremely ugly, +EPO, +AO, -PNA, +NAO, as far as the eye can see and they all have lost the -WPO look they had been advertising as well. The new CFS and CANSIPS runs for the month of December were equally as terrible 

It's a blowtorch pattern.  Not Nina climo whatsoever which gives me hope for Jan-March. 

The last mega December torch led to Jan 2016. 

That being said you can't compare 2015 to now either. If blocking doesn't materialize then it'll probably end up like 2011-2012, a strong analog this year. 

And I'm good with that honestly. A nice mild, dry winter ain't bad at all. Just hope it doesn't eff up spring and we get March like weather next 5-6 months. 

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8 hours ago, MJO812 said:

I can't believe people are already panicking.  Maybe this is a normal winter for us where it snows after winter.

Agreed. Christmas would be considered long term guidance and we know how that can change by then. It would just be too bad if we had to so heavily rely on blocking this winter.

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14 minutes ago, mattinpa said:

Agreed. Christmas would be considered long term guidance and we know how that can change by then. It would just be too bad if we had to so heavily rely on blocking this winter.

It’s ridiculous.

Then you realize it’s the same guys doing the same thing over and over again…in an echo chamber.

Look at the screen names…same 5 guys. It’s always gonna be +4.

Meanwhile is 35 out. Enjoy your December

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9 hours ago, MJO812 said:

I can't believe people are already panicking.  Maybe this is a normal winter for us where it snows after winter.

Yeah, looking back to March and April 2018 we had almost a seasonal snowfall in 5 weeks. Of course we had last Feb too. 

They were SSWE driven, which is probably what we will need again, but it has happened before and can happen again.

In the mean time we enjoy energy savings.

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33 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

It’s ridiculous.

Then you realize it’s the same guys doing the same thing over and over again…in an echo chamber.

Look at the screen names…same 5 guys. It’s always gonna be +4.

Meanwhile is 35 out. Enjoy your December

Agree

Those were the same people who canceled winter last year.

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Morning thoughts...

Today will be variably cloudy, breezy, and a bit milder. Temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 40s across much of the region. Likely high temperatures include:

New York City (Central Park): 46°
Newark: 50°
Philadelphia: 50°

Tomorrow will be noticeably milder as a cold front pushes toward the region.

Normals:
New York City: 30-Year: 48.7°; 15-Year: 49.0°
Newark: 30-Year: 49.3°; 15-Year: 49.8°
Philadelphia: 30-Year: 50.3°; 15-Year: 50.9°

30-Day Verification:

New York City (Central Park):
Average daily forecast: 52.1°
Average temperature: 52.6°
Average error: 1.1°

Newark:
Average daily forecast: 56.0°
Average temperature: 55.8°
Average error: 1.2°

Philadelphia:
Average daily forecast: 55.0°
Average temperature: 55.6°
Average error: 1.3°

 

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