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December 2021


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8 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

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Records were set on both Dec 31 1965 (63F) and Jan 1 1966 (62F) and that temperature was probably observed at midnight as I recall it was thundering and lightning outside right around New Years Eve at that moment in time. I have the vague recollection of it being closer to 70F than that, perhaps it was a few degrees warmer over there than at the Park. The record high mins for both days were also set (51F Dec 31 and 52F Jan 1). That 52F on Jan 1 1966 was probably towards late evening, the overnight "low" was probably closer to 60 F. 

Looking at my data base I see that the six warmest NYE max temps are 1965 (63F), 1932 (62F), 1992 (61F) and 1895, 1936, 1990 (all 60F). The warmest NYD temps are 1966 (62F), 1919 (61F), 1973,1979,2005 (all 60F), and 1885 (59F). More recently, 58F in 2019 tied by 1876. 

No reason it couldn't be warmer though, Jan 2 1876 had 68F for a record high and Dec 29 1984 was 70F. 

Looks like 1884-85 had a similar situation to 1965-66 as the high on Dec 31 1884 was 58F. 

 

 

Mercifully, if I remember correctly, the 1965-6 records were set at the beginning of a long NYC subway strike,  and some people were able to walk to work in the mild weather.

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Interesting to see that the previous Texas records were in 1933 because that was actually quite a cold month in the northeastern US and was followed by a near normal January and one of the coldest Februaries on record in 1934. The ridge must have been quite a bit narrower in 1933 than it has been this past month. Nov 1933 was also a cold month like it was to some extent this year. 

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The last day of December is averaging  49degs.(45/53), or +15>>>+12 nowadays.

Month to date is  43.5[+4.3].     December will end at  43.7[+4.6].

Today: 53-55, wind w. to s., rain by early Sat. AM.

First 7 days of January are already 38/50 = 44, or +10>>>+8 nowadays.

50*(95%RH) here at 6am.{was 49* at 3am}.    52* at 11am.

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Several stations will finish 2021 in top 5 warmest years. You can see how many top 10 warmest there have been in recent years.  The minimum temperature for the year was also among the warmest on record.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2021 57.9 1
2 2012 57.8 0
3 1990 57.5 0
4 2020 57.3 0
- 2011 57.3 0
5 2016 57.2 0
- 1998 57.2 0
6 2010 57.0 0
- 2006 57.0 0
- 1973 57.0 0
7 1991 56.9 0
8 2002 56.5 0
- 1993 56.5 0
9 2017 56.4 0
10 1999 56.3 0


 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2012 55.2 0
2 1998 55.0 0
3 2020 54.9 0
4 2021 54.7 1
- 2016 54.7 0
5 1999 54.3 0
6 2017 54.2 0
- 2011 54.2 0
- 1991 54.2 0
- 1990 54.2 0
7 2010 54.0 0
8 2006 53.9 0
9 2018 53.7 0
10 2002 53.6 0


 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2002 18 0
2 2021 16 1
3 1949 15 0
- 1937 15 0


 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2021 13 1
- 2020 13 0
- 2006 13 0
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Morning thoughts…

It will be mostly cloudy with some showers today. It will be unseasonably mild. High temperatures will likely reach mainly the lower and middle 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 52°

Newark: 55°

Philadelphia: 57°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 40.7°; 15-Year: 41.7°

Newark: 30-Year: 41.2°; 15-Year: 42.4°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 42.5°; 15-Year: 43.6°

2022 will begin with unseasonable warmth.

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December 2021 is finishing with a monthly mean temperature of 43.8° in New York City. That was the 3rd warmest December on record. Records go back to 1869. 5 of the 10 warmest December cases have occurred since 2000. 9 of the 10 warmest December cases have occurred since 1980.

2022 will begin with more unseasonable warmth. But a turn toward cooler weather lies ahead in the medium-range.

In the South, more near record and record heat prevailed. Preliminary records included:

Albany, GA: 87° (old record: 81°, 1951)
Baton Rouge: 84° (old record: 81°, 1974)
Charleston, SC: 78° (tied record set in 1984 and tied in 1996)
Charlotte: 73° (old record: 70°, 1996)
College Station, TX: 83° (old record: 82°, 1951)
Corpus Christi: 84° (tied record set in 2011)
Galveston: 80° (old record: 74°, 1921)
Houston: 84° (old record: 82°, 1974)
Lake Charles, LA: 80° (old record: 78°, 1933, 1934, 1964)
Meridian, MS: 84° (old record: 79°, 1951)
Mobile: 81° (old record: 78°, 1988)
Montgomery, AL: 83° (old record: 81°, 1951)
New Orleans: 83° (old record: 81°, 1971)
Pensacola: 79° (old record: 77°, 1971 and 1996)
Raleigh: 74° (old record:P 72°, 1929)
Savannah: 81° (old record: 80°, 1973 and 2015)
Shreveport: 81° (tied record set in 1951 and tied in 1964)
Tampa: 83° (tied record set in 2006 and tied in 2015 and 2018)

In addition, Houston recorded its 18th 80° day of this month. The old December record was 10 days, which was set in 2012. The 18 days also matches the November record that was set in 1927. Houston also recorded its December record 8th consecutive 80° day. The old record of 5 consecutive days was set during December 3-7, 1998 and tied during December 24-28, 2016. Houston concluded December with a monthly mean temperature of 67.8°. That demolished the longstanding December mark of 64.4° from 1933. It was also high enough to tie 1909's November average, which was the 3rd warmest November on record.

January will very likely commence with an AO-/PNA- pattern. That typically favors somewhat cooler than normal readings in the East. For NYC, the January 1-10, 1991-2020 mean temperature for such cases was 33.5° (normal: 34.8°).

Late in the first week of January, the PNA could go positive. As that happens, the prospects for measurable snowfall could increase. Since 1990, 66% of days with 1" or more snow in New York City occurred when the PNA was positive. In addition, 81% of days with 4" or more snow occurred when the PNA was positive.

The latest guidance suggests that temperatures could head toward seasonal levels and then below seasonal levels as the first week of January progresses. The coldest air will likely remain confined to the Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, and western and central Canada during that time. Afterward, the cold could press farther south into at least the northern Middle Atlantic and Ohio Valley regions. The colder pattern could last for two or perhaps three weeks before it breaks down. Thus, it could begin to break down sometime in the January 15-20 timeframe.    

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around December 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter.

The SOI was +16.19 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.516 today.

On December 29 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.052 (RMM). The December 28-adjusted amplitude was 2.308 (RMM).

 

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3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

December 2021 is finishing with a monthly mean temperature of 43.8° in New York City. That was the 3rd warmest December on record. Records go back to 1869. 5 of the 10 warmest December cases have occurred since 2000. 9 of the 10 warmest December cases have occurred since 1980.

2022 will begin with more unseasonable warmth. But a turn toward cooler weather lies ahead in the medium-range.

In the South, more near record and record heat prevailed. Preliminary records included:

Albany, GA: 87° (old record: 81°, 1951)
Baton Rouge: 84° (old record: 81°, 1974)
Charleston, SC: 78° (tied record set in 1984 and tied in 1996)
Charlotte: 73° (old record: 70°, 1996)
College Station, TX: 83° (old record: 82°, 1951)
Corpus Christi: 84° (tied record set in 2011)
Galveston: 80° (old record: 74°, 1921)
Houston: 84° (old record: 82°, 1974)
Lake Charles, LA: 80° (old record: 78°, 1933, 1934, 1964)
Meridian, MS: 84° (old record: 79°, 1951)
Mobile: 81° (old record: 78°, 1988)
Montgomery, AL: 83° (old record: 81°, 1951)
New Orleans: 83° (old record: 81°, 1971)
Pensacola: 79° (old record: 77°, 1971 and 1996)
Raleigh: 74° (old record:P 72°, 1929)
Savanah: 81° (old record: 80°, 1973 and 2015)
Shreveport: 81° (tied record set in 1951 and tied in 1964)
Tampa: 83° (tied record set in 2006 and tied in 2015 and 2018)

In addition, Houston recorded its 18th 80° day of this month. The old December record was 10 days, which was set in 2012. The 18 days also matches the November record that was set in 1927. Houston also recorded its December record 8th consecutive 80° day. The old record of 5 consecutive days was set during December 3-7, 1998 and tied during December 24-28, 2016. Houston concluded December with a monthly mean temperature of 67.8°. That demolished the longstanding December mark of 64.4° from 1933. It was also high enough to tie 1909's November average, which was the 3rd warmest November on record.

January will very likely commence with an AO-/PNA- pattern. That typically favors somewhat cooler than normal readings in the East. For NYC, the January 1-10, 1991-2020 mean temperature for such cases was 33.5° (normal: 34.8°).

Late in the first week of January, the PNA could go positive. As that happens, the prospects for measurable snowfall could increase. Since 1990, 66% of days with 1" or more snow in New York City occurred when the PNA was positive. In addition, 81% of days with 4" or more snow occurred when the PNA was positive.

The latest guidance suggests that temperatures could head toward seasonal levels and then below seasonal levels as the first week of January progresses. The coldest air will likely remain confined to the Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, and western and central Canada during that time. Afterward, the cold could press farther south into at least the northern Middle Atlantic and Ohio Valley regions. The colder pattern could last for two or perhaps three weeks before it breaks down. Thus, it could begin to break down sometime in the January 15-20 timeframe.    

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around December 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter.

The SOI was +16.19 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.516 today.

On December 29 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.052 (RMM). The December 28-adjusted amplitude was 2.308 (RMM).

 

In addition San Juan, PR will have a top ten warmest December with nine of the ten warmest Decembers from 1995 onward. Records began in 1956.

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10 hours ago, bluewave said:

40° and warmer Decembers have become much more common in recent years.

 

3A337ECC-9443-44BD-909F-FF8CC07BD95E.thumb.jpeg.0d0de81b641dc115c5b9e32f07c9be55.jpeg

 

 

The beginning decades had one 40 degree winter and lots below 30. This plays into why snow is so commonly associated with Christmas.  
December 89 is one of my most distinct early weather memories. Playing on the ice on the frozen canals where i grew up. The continuous cold and very minimal snow. Which all came from a couple clippers.  

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23 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

The beginning decades had one 40 degree winter and lots below 30. This plays into why snow is so commonly associated with Christmas.  
December 89 is one of my most distinct early weather memories. Playing on the ice on the frozen canals where i grew up. The continuous cold and very minimal snow. Which all came from a couple clippers.  

That month was full of disappointment 

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3rd warmest December in NYC with many of the top ranking years since the late 90s.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2015 50.8 0
2 2001 44.1 0
3 2021 43.8 0
4 1984 43.7 0
5 2006 43.6 0
6 2011 43.3 0
7 1998 43.1 0
8 1982 42.7 0
9 1990 42.6 0
10 1891 42.5 0
11 1994 42.2 0
12 1923 42.0 0
13 2012 41.5 0
14 1996 41.3 0
- 1953 41.3 0
15 1979 41.1 0
16 1956 40.9 0
- 1931 40.9 0
17 1971 40.8 0
18 2014 40.5 0
- 1965 40.5 0
19 1957 40.2 0
20 2018 40.1 0
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  • 1 month later...
On 1/1/2022 at 7:27 AM, bluewave said:

3rd warmest December in NYC with many of the top ranking years since the late 90s.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2015 50.8 0
2 2001 44.1 0
3 2021 43.8 0
4 1984 43.7 0
5 2006 43.6 0
6 2011 43.3 0
7 1998 43.1 0
8 1982 42.7 0
9 1990 42.6 0
10 1891 42.5 0
11 1994 42.2 0
12 1923 42.0 0
13 2012 41.5 0
14 1996 41.3 0
- 1953 41.3 0
15 1979 41.1 0
16 1956 40.9 0
- 1931 40.9 0
17 1971 40.8 0
18 2014 40.5 0
- 1965 40.5 0
19 1957 40.2 0
20 2018 40.1 0

very difficult to get a good winter with a December average of 40+

Just picking through this list from bottom to top the notable ones are 1957-58, 2014-15, 1982-83, 2015-16.  Some of these were one big snowstorm winters like 1982-83 and 2015-16.  2014-15 was a real standout because of how cold it got from Jan 20 through Mar 20.   And it was the only non strong el nino out of the 4, as a matter of fact it wasn't an el nino at all.  Was 1891-92 snowy?  I'm not familiar with what happened that winter, but it looks like it was the only 1800s winter that had a December average of 40+

 

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