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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas


40/70 Benchmark
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9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

John, there is zero doubt this particular ENSO event is well coupled with the atmosphere. I understand the HC ENSO dampening phenomenon, but this one has had very robust MEI and atmospheric foot print all along. It's no coincidence this year...its la nina. I mean, there is usually going to be SOME intraseasonal forcing variation, but this one is def not in the same ball park as the past several ENSO events. Def the most impressive event since the super el Nino and most impressive la nina since 2010-2011.

...

Hope you had a good morning opening presents in with icing going on... nice.

As far as your concern above, absolutely ... well, most likely. But yeah of course it is.   No argument at all. 

Like I stated - and still believe will be the case ... - this year will have shared real-estate, sometimes more ... sometimes less reflecting the La Nina, relative to climate expectations - " ..I thought this year would pass the hemisphere in and out of La Nina.."   ( just to be clear - ) ..

Certainly so far since say, mid November, this journey's been consistent with La Nina destructive interference ...  some telecon correlations - MJO being one of them,  not correlating well, or like behaving weird.

Frankly, as far as the HC damping stuff - that needs clarity too:  The 'damping' part as an HC effect, is a hypothesis that as far as I am aware, only on my part.  But I'm sure with the vast number of heads in the business, I'm not the only one scratching head.. It's not about that.  Just that it's not sent through rigor.  That said, HC expansion in and of its self, that much is not hypothesis. It's empirical.   The HC part of the total Walker circulation model has/begun to expand outside of the ENSO over recent decades ... That is by virtue of geometry ( really ...) disconnecting the equatorial ENSO's direct latent heat diffusion model, ever more; that separation is the damping. It's not so much a physical damping like holding it down; more so the lowering the ability of ENSO's direct modulation because of the growing disconnect. 

The advent of a powerful +EAMT signal in the late mid range/ .. especially extended blends, that would tend to modulate the Pacific circulation toward a newer paradigm than recent weeks. 

Whatever emerges: does it constructively vs destructively interfere with La Nina.  Early indicators appear to suggest latter, as more and more individual GEF/EPS members ( using that metric indirectly ...) are beginning to emerge for Phase 8.  Plus, the AO is is correcting down.  It'll be interesting to see these indexes over the coming dayts, because if they continue to emerge this way, that would be competing against the La Nina footprint, and could herald one of those times when we hemisphere less reflects the cool ENSO mode.  

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