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Hurricane Ida's Remnants


SnowenOutThere
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21 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

If the weenie jumpers are this bad on Sept 1 - can you imagine what this place is going to be like on December 5th when we are getting shafted by a minor snow event?

The way the climate has been going, the first credible snow threat for the immediate metro area won't arrive till the first week of January; early December is probably going to be in the low sixties.

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I don’t remember there being much sun before the Ivan outbreak, but that was a long time ago so memory may not be reliable. 
 

Last night’s storm was IMBY frankly the most impressive nighttime thunderstorm since … well, the derecho, probably. I slept through the one that caused the Arlington tornado earlier this year.

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Howard County schools closing 3 hours early.    

SPC Mesoanalysis shows that we have work to do in terms of instability along the I-95 corridor to ramp up the threat.    The likely earlier arrival of the forcing will give less time for heating, but I'm absolutely not ready to lower the threat yet.

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Just now, high risk said:

Howard County schools closing 3 hours early.    

SPC Mesoanalysis shows that we have work to do in terms of instability along the I-95 corridor to ramp up the threat.    The likely earlier arrival of the forcing will give less time for heating, but I'm absolutely not ready to lower the threat yet.

Warm front just above DC?

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3 minutes ago, high risk said:

Howard County schools closing 3 hours early.    

SPC Mesoanalysis shows that we have work to do in terms of instability along the I-95 corridor to ramp up the threat.    The likely earlier arrival of the forcing will give less time for heating, but I'm absolutely not ready to lower the threat yet.

This system seems to be moving quicker than originally forecast. It looks like the best chance for a brief spin up from I-95 west will be with that cluster of cells near CHO.

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Just now, Paleocene said:

Montgomery County -- nothing on early dismissal yet. I'm surprised, we're usually one of the first to jump.

Washington County and Frederick County also holding out, it seems. Given that all of the neighbors to the north, west, and east are either cancelled or releasing early, I'm a little surprised.

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56 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

1.3" so far.  It's a solid rain event, very beneficial.   But its just been some moderate rain at times.  I'll take it, but this is a rather boring event.

Well if you can bore your way to about a 2” rain event I’d say that’s a win. Nobody wants a 6” rain event where 3/4 of it just runs off and causes flooding. A good steady 2” will fix you up

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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

My inkling is that very rare water into the basement isn’t worth a major intervention. 

@WxUSAF Don't worry but work quickly: I got water, 0.25~0.50", across half my finished basement last week from a thunderstorm dumping 2.5-3" in ~2hrs via a basement window well.  I freaked out and worked through the night to get the water up, started a dehumidifier, and then grabbed 2 smaller ones on sale.  Been running them all and RH is 35%; the water didn't even reach the drywall, it was absorbed by the 2x4 frames.  As long as it isn't reoccurring or consistently moist down there then you should be fine (3x coats of moisture barrier on the walls here in soggy wstrn PA).

Also bought an automatic pump from Harbor Freight should anything close to that try to happen again.

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Updated morning AFD from LWX 

AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1049 AM EDT Wed Sep 1 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Remnants of Ida will impact the area today through early Thursday as
it exits to the north and east. High pressure will build over the
area late Thursday and into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Mid morning update: Previous forecast remains on track. Current
surface analysis shows the remnant low pressure center
associated with Ida centered along the WV/VA border to the west
of Roanoke. A large shield of moderate to heavy rain has
developed across western MD and the WV Panhandle as Ida`s
remnant wind field interacts with a mid-latitude trough located
off toward our north and west. To the east of the Blue Ridge,
conditions are mostly dry this morning, and visible satellite
shows breaks in the cloud cover developing across southeastern
Virginia. These breaks in the cloud cover are expected to work
their way northward along/east of the I-95 corridor for a few
hours later this morning, providing some daytime heating ahead
of Ida`s remnant circulation. A prominent band of showers and
developing cumulus is evident on both radar and satellite from
roughly CHO southward into NC. This band of showers is expected
to mature into thunderstorms, some of which will become
supercellular, as it translates northeastward into the
destabilizing airmass further east. This band is expected to be
the main focus for severe weather this afternoon, and should
progress through the area from southwest to northeast between
roughly noon and 6 PM. Given the environment in place, these
storms may be capable of producing tornadoes, as well as some
instances of damaging straight line winds. CAMs hint that
another line of storms may develop later this afternoon into
this evening behind this initial line, but hodographs look less
favorable for tornadoes with the second round of storms.
However, the threat for severe thunderstorms will remain non-
zero.

Flash flooding will be possible across western MD and the WV
Panhandle with the steadier precipitation, and may also be
possible further to the east on a more localized basis in
association with individual thunderstorms. Instantaneous
rainfall rates may be very high with any supercells that
develop, as the strong rotating updrafts process large
quantities of the high moisture content air. Instantaneous rainfall
rates of 4-5 inches per hour were observed overnight with the
single large supercell that traversed the forecast area.
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