donyewest

Yeah, I don't have time for discord, so you'll never see me post there.

Agreed but the 99.99% winter season temperature-snow relationship run for what would be most of of my, and probably some of yinz, lifetime is essentially = 1 (unless I'm discussing with a statistician because they are all sticklers, in which case, my apologies lol).

Furthermore, I have managed to get KPIT to concede that there are data quality issues w.r.t. temperature records when the NWS office took official measurements downtown before the move to Moon (airport). They have admitted that the records are biased because of all the surrounding industry - hot rolls of steel and giant coke ovens increase surrounding temps, surprise. So comparing record highs from 188x and the like to now is intellectually dishonest. Put another way: Even with the biased high temperature readings from the past, the presumption was that there would still be snow in the winter because surrounding areas were cooler in relation, but now Moon is as cool (read: same temp) as the surrounding countryside so it requires a totally different mindset.

I would beg to differ, credit to Brian Brettschneider @Climatologist49:

Only took 2 days and we're back above average for the month for daily high temp. (We were already above for daily low.)

Pfft, not this guy. I keep receipts and hold grudges LOL Seriously though...I pay attention because a deficit is a deficit does a trendline make. It's like gambling: You lose, come back to the table to lose again, and then try to play catchup but odds are not in your favor. Snow is the only respite against the gloom of winter rain and swamp-humid days that run for most of the calendar year. Especially now that I have a kid, I want them to enjoy winter as much as me, and appreciate cold weather...not be one of those people loving a +25F run in the middle of winter because they are cooold and don't own sweaters?

Coming from the south, I always opt to be cautious when there's ice in the forecast, but there's a big ol' nothing in Butler.

0.1" does for me if we trend towards the high end. My steep Pittsburgh driveway with that kinda ice is no bueno.

Sure does. No gradual warmups (or cool downs) here.

When I die, I want weathermen to be my pallbearers so they can let me down one more time.

Drove through the Cranberry snow burst and it was really nice to see. Sun came out up here in Butler. You'd think it were coming down heavy with how slow the drivers were taking it

Finally got some snow worth talking about! I've been so busy with work that I haven't had time to be upset at the lack of winter weather.

I've been watching discussions around this and there appears to be a lot of apprehension on the hurricane outlook because of how anomalously high the Atlantic SSTs presently are. I tried to find studies on the balance point between Atlantic SSTs versus Nino intensity and there aren't many, prob because aren't many samples, ha. Heck, this blurb shows an 1899 analog which did have an active hurricane season. ECMWF pure model-based forecast just came out aggressively for an above-average season. Thing is, Nino shear is not as intense in the Gulf and mid-latitudes, and if there is a dip in Nino intensity or a block then the window may open for a hurricane to rapidly intensify. A hurricane, whether slowed/widened from shear or super cat 5, would ride up whatever high pressure region *cough*Bermuda/Azores*cough* available and that could open us up to a threat.

I was almost right!

Don't much care for this preview.