Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,281
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Jvinch
    Newest Member
    Jvinch
    Joined

SVR-PRE (ELSA) potential NYC subforum Tue-Fri morning July 6-9, 2021


wdrag
 Share

Recommended Posts

Well that was a bigger day than I imagined but in a way not a great surprise given the NW flow case. Attached  a few rainfall amounts, max wind gusts and LSR's.

Wed afternoon: could be another pretty BIG day... my guess is axised more I78-I84 region including w LI.  Instability large. Wind fields 5 kt less and slightly more west to east. Max point rainfall tomorrow may be close to 3".  Today had at least a couple over 2" (pls see examples attached),.

Thu afternoon: Could see newd moving SVR across NJ/NYS.

Early Fri: ELSA impact, could be 2-54 RAIN w Wind gusts 40 kt E LI and s NJ.

Figuring max point rainfall between today's rain and ELSA's ending midday Fri and the Wed-The SVR potential... iso 4.5-6", especially CT.

 

 

 

 

Screen Shot 2021-07-06 at 10.55.23 PM.png

Screen Shot 2021-07-06 at 10.56.10 PM.png

Screen Shot 2021-07-06 at 10.56.54 PM.png

Screen Shot 2021-07-06 at 10.57.52 PM.png

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The original intent of the thread was to highlight SVR, especially Wed (which occurred a day earlier- yesterday) and ELSA related PRE, which now is ELSA.  

Today-Wed-the 7th:  While wind fields aloft are weaker than yesterday, they are westerly and combined with HIGH CAPE and decent PWAT, should still result in SVR's, though fewer than yesterday I78 northward. I think we're looking at more hailers today as compared to yesterday, due to TT probably 50-52,  and also wet microbursts. Timing 4P-10P and even develop east onto western LI. SPC has marginal risk as of the predawn evaluation... I like their east-west depiction of the threat region. Spotty max 3" amounts possible.

Thursday the 8th: Adding the potential for SVR. Looks like enough separation from ELSA and enough CAPE/Instability for southwest to northeast moving SVR (few) storms, probably developing sooner than todays. The primary threat region is eastern PA over to just nw of I95 in NJ and then across se NYS and nw CT.  There is some supercell signal but for now, not emphasizing.

Ensembles as of 06z/7 are still edging northwest on the track.  Please follow NHC track.  imo only, I think we'll need tropical headline considerations for coastal NJ/LI se New England. IF the consistent modeling of the op EC is to be believed, we're looking at 40-50 KT gusts for portions of e LI and certainly a swath of 2-4" 12 hour heavy rain somewhere near I95 Friday morning.  This all TBD and so it is best to follow NWS guidance. 

Am off line most of the day after 9A.  

Screen Shot 2021-07-07 at 3.52.54 AM.png

Screen Shot 2021-07-07 at 3.53.25 AM.png

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

WAR once again being stronger than forecast nudging track further west.

This is a continuation of the stronger WAR with a more tucked in storm track like the last several years.

New run

7ECEBC5E-AEE4-4B70-B18B-70AB0A44B7A0.thumb.jpeg.8517573705c733c3f9ba11511b293850.jpeg

Old run

C855780B-E534-46B8-B01D-7443A744ADA3.thumb.jpeg.4b0c103608dfdfcdf35a4c98c64f6693.jpeg

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, LIWeatherGuy29 said:

Very true... Same issue with Snowstorms

Here in SW Suffolk we usually get some good totals, especially in long island jackpot storms like January 2015 and February 2013, but as long as I've been alive (21 years but still), we have never gotten a jackpot, besides maybe during the 2018 winter.... I suppose the one thing i get to brag about is the fact that I'm probably one of the few people on here who got more than 20" of snow in both Jan 2015 and Jan 2016

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

4 hours ago, wdrag said:

 

Today-Wed-the 7th:  While wind fields aloft are weaker than yesterday, they are westerly and combined with HIGH CAPE and decent PWAT, should still result in SVR's, though fewer than yesterday I78 northward. I think we're looking at more hailers today as compared to yesterday, due to TT probably 50-52,  and also wet microbursts. Timing 4P-10P and even develop east onto western LI. SPC has marginal risk as of the predawn evaluation... I like their east-west depiction of the threat region. Spotty max 3" amounts possible.

 

 

 

Upgraded to Slight again today

 

  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Am off line til at least 430P.. haven't studied anything since 4A, but the cards on the table for the next 3 days.  How they're played by nature, still a little undecided but there will be pockets of significant short term impacts...,  especially I80-LI northward  Follow SPC, NHC, local NWS and our own participant evaluations as we move forward.

 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lastly. Per Bluewave and others on smoke...  Unsure but dont think the smoke layer interfered with with yesterdays convection?  Please correct me if I'm wrong.

 

CoCoRAHS amounts from yesterday and Power Outages as of 10A this morning are residual summary impacts from yesterday. 

 

 

Screen Shot 2021-07-07 at 6.35.29 AM.png

Screen Shot 2021-07-07 at 10.00.20 AM.png

Screen Shot 2021-07-07 at 10.00.43 AM.png

Screen Shot 2021-07-07 at 10.01.08 AM.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

27 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Got blasted with severe storm yesterday afternoon. 10-15 minutes of fury with quarter sized hail and 70mph winds. Lost power for 8 hours and parts of town still without. Trees and power lines down everywhere. Hoping there is no repeat later today. 

Same here and still without power 

  • Sad 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...