SVR-PRE (ELSA) potential NYC subforum Tue-Fri morning July 6-9, 2021

[BxEngine]

So after 4 hours of tarmac sitting after being diverted from Jfk to acy…i had to drive through this to get home tnite. Was the most continuous display of lightning i have ever seen.

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, psv88 said:

Your area is awful for all types of weather

Not when we get 30 inch snowstorms   I compare our weather to DC and ACY and I feel a lot better about it   it's all relative!

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I was in Merrick and it was gusting 45-55 for what seemed like 7-10 minutes 

I wonder if these winds will be stronger than what we get in Elsa?  It almost seemed like last year's TS for awhile this evening

 

 

[Rtd208]

Picked up 2.55" of rain for the day yesterday.

[wdrag]

The original intent of the thread was to highlight SVR, especially Wed (which occurred a day earlier- yesterday) and ELSA related PRE, which now is ELSA.  

Today-Wed-the 7th:  While wind fields aloft are weaker than yesterday, they are westerly and combined with HIGH CAPE and decent PWAT, should still result in SVR's, though fewer than yesterday I78 northward. I think we're looking at more hailers today as compared to yesterday, due to TT probably 50-52,  and also wet microbursts. Timing 4P-10P and even develop east onto western LI. SPC has marginal risk as of the predawn evaluation... I like their east-west depiction of the threat region. Spotty max 3" amounts possible.

Thursday the 8th: Adding the potential for SVR. Looks like enough separation from ELSA and enough CAPE/Instability for southwest to northeast moving SVR (few) storms, probably developing sooner than todays. The primary threat region is eastern PA over to just nw of I95 in NJ and then across se NYS and nw CT.  There is some supercell signal but for now, not emphasizing.

Ensembles as of 06z/7 are still edging northwest on the track.  Please follow NHC track.  imo only, I think we'll need tropical headline considerations for coastal NJ/LI se New England. IF the consistent modeling of the op EC is to be believed, we're looking at 40-50 KT gusts for portions of e LI and certainly a swath of 2-4" 12 hour heavy rain somewhere near I95 Friday morning.  This all TBD and so it is best to follow NWS guidance. 

Am off line most of the day after 9A.  

[MJO812]

[bluewave]

22 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

WAR once again being stronger than forecast nudging track further west.

This is a continuation of the stronger WAR with a more tucked in storm track like the last several years.

New run

Old run

[Rjay]

[Intensewind002]

8 hours ago, LIWeatherGuy29 said:

Very true... Same issue with Snowstorms

Here in SW Suffolk we usually get some good totals, especially in long island jackpot storms like January 2015 and February 2013, but as long as I've been alive (21 years but still), we have never gotten a jackpot, besides maybe during the 2018 winter.... I suppose the one thing i get to brag about is the fact that I'm probably one of the few people on here who got more than 20" of snow in both Jan 2015 and Jan 2016

[Intensewind002]

17 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Yikes, I doubt it'll be that strong, but driving home from work in that on friday morning won't be fun

[crossbowftw3]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

Easily can chop some of that off but somewhere on LI easily gets a gust between 50 and 70. Suspect TS warnings would be needed by this afternoon’s cycle if things stand. For us inland folks wind threat should be nominal at best. 

[IrishRob17]

 

4 hours ago, wdrag said:

 

Today-Wed-the 7th:  While wind fields aloft are weaker than yesterday, they are westerly and combined with HIGH CAPE and decent PWAT, should still result in SVR's, though fewer than yesterday I78 northward. I think we're looking at more hailers today as compared to yesterday, due to TT probably 50-52,  and also wet microbursts. Timing 4P-10P and even develop east onto western LI. SPC has marginal risk as of the predawn evaluation... I like their east-west depiction of the threat region. Spotty max 3" amounts possible.

 

 

 

Upgraded to Slight again today

 

[MJO812]

[wdrag]

Am off line til at least 430P.. haven't studied anything since 4A, but the cards on the table for the next 3 days.  How they're played by nature, still a little undecided but there will be pockets of significant short term impacts...,  especially I80-LI northward  Follow SPC, NHC, local NWS and our own participant evaluations as we move forward.

 

 

[wdrag]

Lastly. Per Bluewave and others on smoke...  Unsure but dont think the smoke layer interfered with with yesterdays convection?  Please correct me if I'm wrong.

 

CoCoRAHS amounts from yesterday and Power Outages as of 10A this morning are residual summary impacts from yesterday. 

 

 

[HeadInTheClouds]

Got blasted with severe storm yesterday afternoon. 10-15 minutes of fury with quarter sized hail and 70mph winds. Lost power for 8 hours and parts of town still without. Trees and power lines down everywhere. Hoping there is no repeat later today. 

[forkyfork]

i'm really liking tomorrow. warm front overhead, very high dewpoints, elsa approaching, and height falls from a disturbance to the west

[dmillz25]

14 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i'm really liking tomorrow. warm front overhead, very high dewpoints, elsa approaching, and height falls from a disturbance to the west

Very nice. Hopefully today delivers as well

[White Gorilla]

27 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Got blasted with severe storm yesterday afternoon. 10-15 minutes of fury with quarter sized hail and 70mph winds. Lost power for 8 hours and parts of town still without. Trees and power lines down everywhere. Hoping there is no repeat later today. 

Same here and still without power 

[hudsonvalley21]

8 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Same here and still without power 

Ouch, bad day without a/c.  Hopefully everyone gets power back soon.

[forkyfork]

 

[Newman]

Lots of low level 0-1km veering on the 3k NAM for NYC tomorrow afternoon. Limited CAPE and surface heating though compared to recent events.

[MJO812]

Right over NYC

Expect Tropical Storm Watches soon

[Brian5671]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Right over NYC

Expect Tropical Storm Watches soon

strengthens back to a TS over land moving at that speed?  I have my doubts on that.  

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

strengthens back to a TS over land moving at that speed?  I have my doubts on that.  

Enhanced by the incoming trough.  Similar to the Euro.

[FPizz]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

strengthens back to a TS over land moving at that speed?  I have my doubts on that.  

I was thinking that too.  Its over land for 700+ miles. 

[Intensewind002]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

strengthens back to a TS over land moving at that speed?  I have my doubts on that.  

Probably due to baroclinic forcing, I think. Kinda similar to Isaiah last year

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Intensewind002 said:

Probably due to baroclinic forcing, I think. Kinda similar to Isaiah last year

Yep

But this isn't going to be as strong as Isisas.

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yep

But this isn't going to be as strong as Isisas.

Also moving NE vs straight north for Isias which brought the wind field over and east of NYC

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Also moving NE vs straight north for Isias which brought the wind field over and east of NYC

Yep

This will most likely be some gusts and heavy rain bands.