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SVR-PRE (ELSA) potential NYC subforum Tue-Fri morning July 6-9, 2021


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7 hours ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Currently in the middle of the absolutely nuttiest storm I’ve seen in years. I have now gone nearly 40 minutes of being able to observe constant flashes of lightning. Some kind of outflow/gust front contributed to chopping off something big from a tree; will have to investigate in the morning. 
 

edit: intensity is beginning to quickly back down, thankfully, but the flashes continue. Powerful stuff. 

8 hours later note: the lightning flashes went on for another near-half hour after this, for a full hour and 10 minutes of lightning. That’s a personal record for my books for how many consecutive flashes and length of time of being able to observe lightning. 

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This according to NHC.

Rawinsonde data and GOES-16 RGB airmass imagery show an upper-level 
shortwave trough over the southeastern United States to the west of 
Elsa, and the global models forecast this system to follow the 
cyclone northeastward and take on a negative tilt.  This should 
result in increasing upper-level divergence over Elsa, which in turn 
should lead to some strengthening as the storm moves near or over 
the east coast of the United States.  The 00Z ECMWF model is not as 
bullish on intensification as its previous run, but it and the 00Z 
UKMET still call for strengthening, and even the weaker GFS 
forecasts the favorable upper-air pattern.  Based on this, the new 
intensity forecast shows a little more strengthening than the 
previous forecast.
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Can't believe I am under a warning

NYZ078-081730-
/O.NEW.KOKX.TR.W.1005.210708T0920Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.UPG.KOKX.TR.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Northwest Suffolk-
520 AM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning means tropical storm-force winds are
expected somewhere within this area within the next 36 hours

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
    - Huntington
    - Smithtown
    - Port Jefferson

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Tropical storm force winds remain
      possible
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 10-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39
      to 57 mph
        - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
          previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm
          force.
        - PREPARE: Efforts to protect property should now be
          underway. Prepare for limited wind damage.
        - ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind
          becomes hazardous.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
        - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
          mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
        - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
          uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees
          are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown
          over.
        - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within
          urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving
          conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.
        - Scattered power and communications outages.

* STORM SURGE
    - No storm surge inundation forecast

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Little to no storm
      surge flooding
        - The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the
          previous assessment.
        - PLAN: There is little to no threat of storm surge flooding.
          Rough surf, coastal erosion, and life-threatening rip
          currents are possible.
        - PREPARE: Little to no preparations for storm surge flooding
          are needed.
        - ACT: Follow the instructions of local officials. Monitor
          forecasts.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
        - Little to no potential impacts from storm surge flooding.

* FLOODING RAIN
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 1-3 inches, with locally
          higher amounts

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for major
      flooding rain
        - The flooding rain threat has increased from the previous
          assessment.
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
          major flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are
          likely.
        - PREPARE: Strongly consider protective actions, especially
          if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding.
        - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
          action will likely result in serious injury or loss of life.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive
        - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and
          rescues.
        - Rivers and streams may rapidly overflow their banks in
          multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches
          may become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and
          barriers may become stressed.
        - In hilly terrain, destructive runoff may run quickly down
          valleys, and increase susceptibility to rockslides and
          mudslides.
        - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
          communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or
          washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover
          escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of
          moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions
          become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some
          weakened or washed out.

* TORNADO
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few
      tornadoes
        - The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
          previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a
          few tornadoes.
        - PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to
          tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before
          hazardous weather arrives.
        - ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter
          quickly.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
        - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the
          execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
        - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with
          power and communications disruptions.
        - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings,
          chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or
          overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off,
          shallow rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown
          off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.

* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
    - http://scoem.suffolkcountyny.gov
    - https://weather.gov/nyc
    - https://ready.gov/hurricanes
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6 minutes ago, psv88 said:
Can't believe I am under a warning

NYZ078-081730-
/O.NEW.KOKX.TR.W.1005.210708T0920Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.UPG.KOKX.TR.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Northwest Suffolk-
520 AM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning means tropical storm-force winds are
expected somewhere within this area within the next 36 hours

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
    - Huntington
    - Smithtown
    - Port Jefferson

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Tropical storm force winds remain
      possible
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 10-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39
      to 57 mph
        - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
          previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm
          force.
        - PREPARE: Efforts to protect property should now be
          underway. Prepare for limited wind damage.
        - ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind
          becomes hazardous.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
        - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
          mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
        - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
          uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees
          are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown
          over.
        - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within
          urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving
          conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.
        - Scattered power and communications outages.

* STORM SURGE
    - No storm surge inundation forecast

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Little to no storm
      surge flooding
        - The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the
          previous assessment.
        - PLAN: There is little to no threat of storm surge flooding.
          Rough surf, coastal erosion, and life-threatening rip
          currents are possible.
        - PREPARE: Little to no preparations for storm surge flooding
          are needed.
        - ACT: Follow the instructions of local officials. Monitor
          forecasts.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
        - Little to no potential impacts from storm surge flooding.

* FLOODING RAIN
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 1-3 inches, with locally
          higher amounts

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for major
      flooding rain
        - The flooding rain threat has increased from the previous
          assessment.
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
          major flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are
          likely.
        - PREPARE: Strongly consider protective actions, especially
          if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding.
        - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
          action will likely result in serious injury or loss of life.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive
        - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and
          rescues.
        - Rivers and streams may rapidly overflow their banks in
          multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches
          may become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and
          barriers may become stressed.
        - In hilly terrain, destructive runoff may run quickly down
          valleys, and increase susceptibility to rockslides and
          mudslides.
        - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
          communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or
          washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover
          escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of
          moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions
          become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some
          weakened or washed out.

* TORNADO
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few
      tornadoes
        - The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
          previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a
          few tornadoes.
        - PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to
          tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before
          hazardous weather arrives.
        - ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter
          quickly.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
        - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the
          execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
        - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with
          power and communications disruptions.
        - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings,
          chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or
          overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off,
          shallow rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown
          off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.

* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
    - http://scoem.suffolkcountyny.gov
    - https://weather.gov/nyc
    - https://ready.gov/hurricanes

I thought winds have to be over 39 mph. 

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Just now, MJO812 said:

Not shocking since this isn't going to be a sub 1000 low.  The rain will be the biggest  impact from this.

At this point it looks like a toss up if we actually see much over 1.5” here inland. Coastal areas should still be good for 2-4” I would think 

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6 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Most of the bad weather with this storm is well to the north and east. So I would think our worst weather will happen when the center of Elsa is over the Delmarva area into southern New Jersey.

it does interact with a front, but agree, it's a 6-9 hr period of heavy rain for some areas, mainly overnight tonight.    

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50 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Exactly 

People hear tropical storm and freak out 

My dad called me this morning to tell me he put away his outdoor furniture and to ask what I thought. In his defense he had major damage from Isaias. The general public isn’t spending time analyzing models like we are.  The strongest winds should stay out in eastern Suffolk where even there, there will be minimal impacts. Flash flooding will be the take away from this one.

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While we could see some 40+ mph gusts on the front and back ends, the heavy rains should be the big story.

A83FC9A1-6557-436F-8E34-3EBA73E9810C.png.704491396a426cae7669459468f7766b.png
 

C7AE14BE-B3CB-4137-A2E3-2B619B117EEB.png.ffb3fbf76786a0e0e4ead6739f8c4eb6.png

A72F83D3-96E9-4601-B010-C57B773D30A7.png.c29fbeba528e8da9e5861ec63d6f1da4.png

I picked up 2.55" of rain on Tuesday with the storms that moved thru the region. It looks like another 3-5" could be on tap for me from this afternoon thru tomorrow morning. 

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Just now, Brian5671 said:

yeah both 12z's cut way back....but it's the NAM so who knows

It's all a timing issue with the speed of the cold front coming in Friday night. The longer the system takes it get up here the further East it will likely end up.

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