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SVR-PRE (ELSA) potential NYC subforum Tue-Fri morning July 6-9, 2021


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2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Agree.    An an active year so far so no absence of threats.

It’s only a matter of time before a long track MDR formed major gets caught in that sling shot. Had Isais been a major at its Carolina landfall we would have had wind gusts over 100mph. Hardwood trees fail around 90mph something we have just avoided. Complete Puerto Rico style destruction of the power grid and potentially hundreds of billions to bury all the new lines. 
Great weather week overall! Last night was awesome, unfortunately tonight’s threat is doa 

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12 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

It’s only a matter of time before a long track MDR formed major gets caught in that sling shot. Had Isais been a major at its Carolina landfall we would have had wind gusts over 100mph. Hardwood trees fail around 90mph something we have just avoided. Complete Puerto Rico style destruction of the power grid and potentially hundreds of billions to bury all the new lines. 
Great weather week overall! Last night was awesome, unfortunately tonight’s threat is doa 

The threat of a major in this day in age across the northeastern megalopolis is something I feel that is about just as likely as a major ice storm; both are simply inevitable and both will cause massive grid issues. Who knows how CONED/NYSEG/what have you will respond to that.

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50 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Severe threat looks dead today. Nothing over the region 

Agreed. HRRR wants nothing to do with us. Develops the convection in PA and moves it NW into upstate NY and the hudson river valley. Its done a great job today thus far. 

Im intrigued by tomorrow actually. Soundings on the NAM are pretty wild for our area. 

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17 minutes ago, psv88 said:

For all of Long Island and the Jersey shore

It's actually kind of hilarious/ridiculous 

 

 

543 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm-force winds are possible
somewhere within this area within the next 48 hours

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
    - Lindenhurst
    - Sayville
    - Patchogue

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39
      to 57 mph
        - PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm
          force.
        - PREPARE: Efforts to protect property should now be
          underway. Prepare for limited wind damage.
        - ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind
          becomes hazardous.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
        - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
          mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
        - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
          uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees
          are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown
          over.
        - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within
          urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving
          conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.
        - Scattered power and communications outages.

* STORM SURGE
    - No storm surge inundation forecast

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Little to no storm
      surge flooding
        - PLAN: There is little to no threat of storm surge flooding.
          Rough surf, coastal erosion, and life-threatening rip
          currents are possible.
        - PREPARE: Little to no preparations for storm surge flooding
          are needed.
        - ACT: Follow the instructions of local officials. Monitor
          forecasts.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
        - Little to no potential impacts from storm surge flooding.

* FLOODING RAIN
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 1-3 inches, with locally
          higher amounts

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for
      moderate flooding rain
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
          moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues
          are possible.
        - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area
          vulnerable to flooding.
        - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
          action may result in serious injury or loss of life.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
        - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations
          and rescues.
        - Rivers and streams may quickly become swollen with swifter
          currents and may overspill their banks in a few places,
          especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams,
          creeks, canals, and ditches may overflow.
        - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken
          foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas
          of rapid inundation at underpasses, low lying spots, and
          poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on
          moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow.
          Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge
          closures.

* TORNADO
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few
      tornadoes
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a
          few tornadoes.
        - PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to
          tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before
          hazardous weather arrives.
        - ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter
          quickly.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
        - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the
          execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
        - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with
          power and communications disruptions.
        - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings,
          chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or
          overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off,
          shallow rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown
          off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.
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2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

It's actually kind of hilarious/ridiculous 

 

 

543 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm-force winds are possible
somewhere within this area within the next 48 hours

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
    - Lindenhurst
    - Sayville
    - Patchogue

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39
      to 57 mph
        - PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm
          force.
        - PREPARE: Efforts to protect property should now be
          underway. Prepare for limited wind damage.
        - ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind
          becomes hazardous.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
        - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
          mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
        - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
          uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees
          are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown
          over.
        - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within
          urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving
          conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.
        - Scattered power and communications outages.

* STORM SURGE
    - No storm surge inundation forecast

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Little to no storm
      surge flooding
        - PLAN: There is little to no threat of storm surge flooding.
          Rough surf, coastal erosion, and life-threatening rip
          currents are possible.
        - PREPARE: Little to no preparations for storm surge flooding
          are needed.
        - ACT: Follow the instructions of local officials. Monitor
          forecasts.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
        - Little to no potential impacts from storm surge flooding.

* FLOODING RAIN
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 1-3 inches, with locally
          higher amounts

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for
      moderate flooding rain
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
          moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues
          are possible.
        - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area
          vulnerable to flooding.
        - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
          action may result in serious injury or loss of life.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
        - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations
          and rescues.
        - Rivers and streams may quickly become swollen with swifter
          currents and may overspill their banks in a few places,
          especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams,
          creeks, canals, and ditches may overflow.
        - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken
          foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas
          of rapid inundation at underpasses, low lying spots, and
          poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on
          moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow.
          Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge
          closures.

* TORNADO
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few
      tornadoes
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a
          few tornadoes.
        - PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to
          tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before
          hazardous weather arrives.
        - ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter
          quickly.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
        - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the
          execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
        - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with
          power and communications disruptions.
        - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings,
          chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or
          overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off,
          shallow rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown
          off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.

It's even worse for my area. max wind gusts of 25 mph.

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40 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said:

Agreed. HRRR wants nothing to do with us. Develops the convection in PA and moves it NW into upstate NY and the hudson river valley. Its done a great job today thus far. 

Im intrigued by tomorrow actually. Soundings on the NAM are pretty wild for our area. 

Tomorrow into Friday look good for severe/storms. 

Plenty of enhancement from Elsa.

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Please don't give up on SVR I80 north between now and 3AM.  Cu are developing near NNJ/NYS line and while the sewd moving line of svr did not materialize south of northern CT this afternoon, WAA SVR appears to be developing across northern PA into southeast NYS attm and possibly soon into extreme nw NJ.  HRRR and FV3 are missing some of the ongoing heavy storms event but the HRRR is picking up on spotty 40-near 50 KT gusts next few hrs as convection appears to fire rapidly late this evening n of I80.  It is stifling out there and that will not go without areas of drenching cooling rain near and N of I80 overnight.

Gotta rest. Back at 5Am ish for the wrap and next events.

 

 

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2 hours ago, Rjay said:

It's actually kind of hilarious/ridiculous 

 

 

543 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm-force winds are possible
somewhere within this area within the next 48 hours

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
    - Lindenhurst
    - Sayville
    - Patchogue

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39
      to 57 mph
        - PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm
          force.
        - PREPARE: Efforts to protect property should now be
          underway. Prepare for limited wind damage.
        - ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind
          becomes hazardous.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
        - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
          mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
        - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
          uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees
          are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown
          over.
        - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within
          urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving
          conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.
        - Scattered power and communications outages.

* STORM SURGE
    - No storm surge inundation forecast

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Little to no storm
      surge flooding
        - PLAN: There is little to no threat of storm surge flooding.
          Rough surf, coastal erosion, and life-threatening rip
          currents are possible.
        - PREPARE: Little to no preparations for storm surge flooding
          are needed.
        - ACT: Follow the instructions of local officials. Monitor
          forecasts.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
        - Little to no potential impacts from storm surge flooding.

* FLOODING RAIN
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 1-3 inches, with locally
          higher amounts

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for
      moderate flooding rain
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
          moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues
          are possible.
        - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area
          vulnerable to flooding.
        - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
          action may result in serious injury or loss of life.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
        - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations
          and rescues.
        - Rivers and streams may quickly become swollen with swifter
          currents and may overspill their banks in a few places,
          especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams,
          creeks, canals, and ditches may overflow.
        - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken
          foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas
          of rapid inundation at underpasses, low lying spots, and
          poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on
          moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow.
          Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge
          closures.

* TORNADO
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few
      tornadoes
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a
          few tornadoes.
        - PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to
          tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before
          hazardous weather arrives.
        - ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter
          quickly.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
        - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the
          execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
        - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with
          power and communications disruptions.
        - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings,
          chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or
          overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off,
          shallow rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown
          off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.

Ehh. Whatever rain we can get this time of year is a win though. 

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3 hours ago, crossbowftw3 said:

The threat of a major in this day in age across the northeastern megalopolis is something I feel that is about just as likely as a major ice storm; both are simply inevitable and both will cause massive grid issues. Who knows how CONED/NYSEG/what have you will respond to that.

Here in CT, the halloween snow storm of 2011, Irene, Sandy and even Isias were disasters here with regard to power restoration.   A Cat 3-4 would take us out for months electricity wise.

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4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Here in CT, the halloween snow storm of 2011, Irene, Sandy and even Isias were disasters here with regard to power restoration.   A Cat 3-4 would take us out for months electricity wise.

After seeing all the damage from the aforementioned storms I can't fathom a cat 3 or worse up here

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14 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

After seeing all the damage from the aforementioned storms I can't fathom a cat 3 or worse up here

1954 Hurricane Carol gave Brookhaven National Labs on Long Island a wind gust of 125mph. Six years later the same location had their lowest barometric pressure of 28.37 from Hurricane Donna. The 1950s into the early 60s was the worst stretch of bad hurricanes in our area.

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Currently in the middle of the absolutely nuttiest storm I’ve seen in years. I have now gone nearly 40 minutes of being able to observe constant flashes of lightning. Some kind of outflow/gust front contributed to chopping off something big from a tree; will have to investigate in the morning. 
 

edit: intensity is beginning to quickly back down, thankfully, but the flashes continue. Powerful stuff. 

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4 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Here in CT, the halloween snow storm of 2011, Irene, Sandy and even Isias were disasters here with regard to power restoration.   A Cat 3-4 would take us out for months electricity wise.

Months? That's encouraging :thumbsup: I agree, it will be a disaster.

3 hours ago, LoboLeader1 said:

Tax day noreaster in 2007 dropped over a foot of rain in this area of Westchester,  which was far worse than TS Irene back in 2011.

But still shy of Floyd in 1999, 14+ inches along the Taconics in Putnam and southern Dutchess and 15-16 in eastern Patterson and Pawling.

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A quick wrap on the svr yesterday...basically further north than expected on my part... but there was some midnight svr in the interior of se NYS. See reports attach. 

 

Please follow all NWS-NHC statements next 24 hours on the previous (yesterday morning risks for today-fro) outlined SVR/FF this afternoon I95 west, and ELSA tonight  

May not be on line til tonight. Will reevaluate Sunday the 11th-Sunday the 18th Fri or Sat for a FF/SVR/Persistent heat headline but no time today. Thanks for all the input, keeping up with reports.  Enjoy the grazer wind (LI) ELSA and torrents I95 east.  Will try a COCoRAHS 2 day summary late today and then a 3 day late Fri or Sat morning.

 

Corrected dates after walking my dog... what was I thinking?   This Sunday-following Sunday.  Let's add that 90-95 to me looks like for the Heat Wave Tue-Sun time frame 13th-18th and won't surprise at near 100F for 1 day, at least KEWR.  Also,  the heat may persist well beyond next Sunday. 708A

Screen Shot 2021-07-08 at 5.57.19 AM.png

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