SVR-PRE (ELSA) potential NYC subforum Tue-Fri morning July 6-9, 2021

[ForestHillWx]

Hauling azz as well. Limits the potential. 

[Brian5671]

Just now, ForestHillWx said:

Hauling azz as well. Limits the potential. 

yeah it's gone by mid morning Friday could see that moving up a few more hrs based on latest trends

[MJO812]

Rgem has a few inches of rain and strong winds for the coast. 

[stemwinder]

14 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

And there's another batch forming to the west 

Got over an inch from the last of that batch.  More today, perhaps?

Looking forward to Friday's possible rain.  I'm not a Grinch, but I love coastals in July, tropical or otherwise.

 

[MJO812]

Joe Bastardi

"interaction with non tropical feature will cause Elsa to pack Isaias like  punch in the NE and MA. s to se winds cause more tree damage than NW at same speed   2 reasons, 1) most strong NW gusts in winter,. 2. Trees lean SE ( especially pines) Better lift. Prepare for outages"

[crossbowftw3]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Joe Bastardi

"interaction with non tropical feature will cause Elsa to pack Isaias like  punch in the NE and MA. s to se winds cause more tree damage than NW at same speed   2 reasons, 1) most strong NW gusts in winter,. 2. Trees lean SE ( especially pines) Better lift. Prepare for outages"

Pretty nonsensical to just say that

[Stormlover74]

37 minutes ago, stemwinder said:

Got over an inch from the last of that batch.  More today, perhaps?

Looking forward to Friday's possible rain.  I'm not a Grinch, but I love coastals in July, tropical or otherwise.

 

I think elsa mostly misses us with the best rains but we'll see

[MJO812]

Cmc

[forkyfork]

10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I think elsa mostly misses us with the best rains but we'll see

i think we're good for 2-4" with a sharp cutoff over western nj

[crossbowftw3]

Three day QPF..

[Snowlover11]

severe thunder storm watch inbound 

[IrishRob17]

 

[Brian5671]

euro is a quick hitter with Elsa-thurs-night friday AM 1-3 inches depending on locale

[IrishRob17]

 

[SRRTA22]

Im wondering if the HWRF is out to lunch with how far west Elsa gets. It scoots offshore in NJ but it would get far enough west where tornados and supercells would be a threat. Have to monitor

[SnoSki14]

If this pattern continues deep into summer we'll def see more tropical threats.

WAR keeps flexing its muscles.

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

If this pattern continues deep into summer we'll def see more tropical threats.

WAR keeps flexing its muscles.

Agree.    An an active year so far so no absence of threats.

[stemwinder]

3 hours ago, Snowlover11 said:

severe thunder storm watch inbound 

Radar shows a line forming already near Stroudsburg PA. 

Edit) not amounting to anything an hour later, unlike yesterday.  Later perhaps?  

[stemwinder]

Tropical Storm Watch posted by Mt Holly for some parts of area.

 

[Brian5671]

18z NAM says what tropical storm rains?

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[doncat]

15 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

18z NAM says what tropical storm rains?

-

3km....

[forkyfork]

the nam is god awful with TCs

[MJO812]

32 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

18z NAM says what tropical storm rains?

-

Check 3k nam

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Check 3k nam

yeah looks more realistic.   

[SnoSki14]

Severe threat looks dead today. Nothing over the region 

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Severe threat looks dead today. Nothing over the region 

yeah I was surprised to see a watch for here given the better dynamics further north.  3K nam does show some action around 9pm.   

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Agree.    An an active year so far so no absence of threats.

It’s only a matter of time before a long track MDR formed major gets caught in that sling shot. Had Isais been a major at its Carolina landfall we would have had wind gusts over 100mph. Hardwood trees fail around 90mph something we have just avoided. Complete Puerto Rico style destruction of the power grid and potentially hundreds of billions to bury all the new lines. 
Great weather week overall! Last night was awesome, unfortunately tonight’s threat is doa 

[bkviking]

Kudos to Walt for sniffing out all the intrigue this week when he started thread last weekend. 

[crossbowftw3]

12 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

It’s only a matter of time before a long track MDR formed major gets caught in that sling shot. Had Isais been a major at its Carolina landfall we would have had wind gusts over 100mph. Hardwood trees fail around 90mph something we have just avoided. Complete Puerto Rico style destruction of the power grid and potentially hundreds of billions to bury all the new lines. 
Great weather week overall! Last night was awesome, unfortunately tonight’s threat is doa 

The threat of a major in this day in age across the northeastern megalopolis is something I feel that is about just as likely as a major ice storm; both are simply inevitable and both will cause massive grid issues. Who knows how CONED/NYSEG/what have you will respond to that.

[lee59]

Tropical Storm Watch now extended to south shore of long Island