LibertyBell Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 8 hours ago, bluewave said: This would be a great winter pattern. I guess that means that August heat is going to be canceled too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 nice and breezy outside, about to rain though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 The last 7 days of July are averaging 79degs.(70/88), or +1. Month to date is 76.3[-1.3]. July should end near 76.9[-0.6]. The Summer to date at 54 Days In is +0.6. July should be the third BN Month this year. So when was the last year with at least 7 BN Months(just in case)? Anyone know? Thanks. 70*(85%RH), here at 6am, overcast, streets wet. 69* at 6:30. Reached 82* at 2:30pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 This is the 15th day in July so far with rain in NYC. It’s the most since 1996. So NYC is getting closer to only the 3rd 10.00” July. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of JulClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Precipitation >= .01 Missing Count 1 1871 20 0 2 1992 16 0 - 1988 16 0 - 1969 16 0 - 1958 16 0 - 1945 16 0 - 1919 16 0 - 1915 16 0 - 1901 16 0 - 1887 16 0 3 1996 15 0 - 1938 15 0 - 1897 15 0 - 1889 15 0 2021 15 6 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of JulClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 1889 11.89 0 2 1975 11.77 0 3 1897 9.56 0 4 2021 9.21 7 5 1928 8.89 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 25, 2021 Author Share Posted July 25, 2021 No threads from myself: This afternoon seems like I-95 or south of I78, especially central/s NJ for an isolated or sct potentially SVR storm. SPC HREF starts a bit further northwest of I95. Confidence low. Will only react w a thread if SPC upgrades or a watch issues. This coming workweek: Low confidence w best chance Thursday when wind fields aloft are strongest. However, Thursday on the 00z/25 EC OP is not quite as robust as the 12z/24 cycle. Laying low for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 5 hours ago, LibertyBell said: I guess that means that August heat is going to be canceled too With all the blocking, areas just N and W of NYC could see 50s next weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 Morning thoughts… Earlier this morning, New York City picked up 0.49”. That brought the July total to 9.70”. As a result 2021 moved past 1897 when 9.56” of rain fell to become the 3rd wettest July on record. Today will be variably cloudy and more humid. Showers and thundershowers are possible this afternoon and evening. Temperatures will rise to the middle and upper 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 83° Newark: 89° Philadelphia: 88° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 85.1°; 15-Year: 86.2° Newark: 30-Year: 86.9°; 15-Year: 88.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.8°; 15-Year: 88.8° Tomorrow will be partly cloudy and very warm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 22 minutes ago, bluewave said: With all the blocking, areas just N and W of NYC could see 50s next weekend. Just had two mornings of 58 for the low in Muttontown on Friday & Saturday. I’ll take these cooler summer mornings as they come, a welcomed break. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 25, 2021 Author Share Posted July 25, 2021 only.02 in Wantage early today. NO SPC upgrade in their 846AM D1 update. No thread from myself on this potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 A strangely wet .03 this morning. I guess that it has been so wet that it doesn't take much at all to be soggy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 Only .02 here as well with those light showers that moved through earlier. Another shower incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 Picked up 0.24" of rain so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 29 minutes ago, uofmiami said: Just had two mornings of 58 for the low in Muttontown on Friday & Saturday. I’ll take these cooler summer mornings as they come, a welcomed break. This is the first time in the post 2010 era that Newark experienced such a big monthly maximum temperature drop from June to July. Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Jun Jul Season Mean 96 100 +4 2021 103 97 -6 2020 93 96 +3 2019 93 99 +6 2018 96 98 +2 2017 99 98 -1 2016 91 99 +8 2015 93 98 +5 2014 92 96 +4 2013 96 101 +5 2012 99 104 +5 2011 102 108 +6 2010 98 103 +5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 back to very humid conditions today.. i had forgotten what it felt like.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 74/68 and .27 in the bucket from the earlier rains. Satellite does show more breaks in the clouds so we will see how warm it gets today. Warmer pattern today through Thu (7/29), with Tue perhaps being the hottest day with 850 temps >16c in parts and may allow the warmer spots mid to perhaps upper 90s range in the extreme. We are skirting the north edge of the heat and bit more ridging would mean stronger heat and cooler if the flow pushed more northerly. So could see a day (wed) back near normal before warmup ahead of the front. Beyond there a bit back and forth next weekend Fri (7/30) - Sun (8/1) where there looks to be cooler air followed by a brief return (12-24) hours of some heat and that looks like Sunday (8/1). Could be interesting with such a contrast of the heat and cooler weather near the regios. Beyond there Aug looks to open cooler before more heat from the west pushes east and we'll see if the W. Atlantic ridge builds west in the Wed 8/4 and beyond period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: With all the blocking, areas just N and W of NYC could see 50s next weekend. Next weekend looks interesting as the 00Z ECM 24 hours later has heat just south of the region and temps near 90 on Sunday 8/1 for a brief period. With still a week out you wonder if it trends more cooler (troughy) or if it corrects warmer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 I am not sure if the image is cached (24 hours prior) for some reason but none the less some breaks in the mostly cloudy conditions approaching the area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 21 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Next weekend looks interesting as the 00Z ECM 24 hours later has heat just south of the region and temps near 90 on Sunday 8/1 for a brief period. With still a week out you wonder if it trends more cooler (troughy) or if it corrects warmer. This is one of the more impressive temperature gradients that we have seen this time of year. So an up and down temperature pattern. With all the quick changes, there will be something for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 See if the smoke messes up the temps for Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 Is there a picture somewhere of the Central Park weather station location. A current picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: This is one of the more impressive temperature gradients that we have seen this time of year. So an up and down temperature pattern. With all the quick changes, there will be something for everyone. Cool summer for the northeast continues 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 22 minutes ago, lee59 said: Is there a picture somewhere of the Central Park weather station location. A current picture. The pictures I have seen show a fenced in area with trees nearby. I don't see foliage right on top of it. Some pictures show the instruments in sun and others in shade. I don't know how updated the pictures are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 5 hours ago, CIK62 said: The last 7 days of July are averaging 79degs.(70/88), or +1. Month to date is 76.3[-1.3]. July should end near 76.9[-0.6]. The Summer to date at 54 Days In is +0.6. July should be the third BN Month this year. So when was the last year with at least 7 BN Months(just in case)? Anyone know? Thanks. 70*(85%RH), here at 6am, overcast, streets wet. 69* at 6:30. Remember these are the new averages 1990-2020…so BN is to be expected at times especially the first year into the new cycle. We are AN based on 1980-2010…so we aren’t really “BN”… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 22 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Cool summer for the northeast continues We above normal even based on the 1990-2020 higher norms…it’s been humid and plenty of hot days. A few very cool days skewing the mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 11 minutes ago, psv88 said: We above normal even based on the 1990-2020 higher norms…it’s been humid and plenty of hot days. A few very cool days skewing the mean north and east of the city/long island is the dividing line. ewr is +1.2 for july Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 35 minutes ago, psv88 said: We above normal even based on the 1990-2020 higher norms…it’s been humid and plenty of hot days. A few very cool days skewing the mean Was at a friends house in Long Island yday and consensus was this is a cool summer so far, lack of 90 degree days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 40 minutes ago, psv88 said: We above normal even based on the 1990-2020 higher norms…it’s been humid and plenty of hot days. A few very cool days skewing the mean Right now this July would be normal using the 1971 to 2000 Norms. -1.3 for Park and lga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 I'm curious as to why anyone would expect a below normal season with the way our climate is warming. If I was a met or long range forecaster I would always go with above normal temps And I would probably be right 90% of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 My stations norms are based on my full 43 years of record and july is exactly normal to this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 NYC is on the verge of getting 10" of rain this month...the last time NYC had a month with 10" or more was in 2013... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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