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June 2021 Discussion/Obs


CAPE
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7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Just had some loud thunder but nothing around on radar. Baseball practice is cancelled so that one shower did it’s job.

Radarscope shows that a rogue lightning bolt struck between Jessup and Severn MD... but a lot closer Jessup (~3/4 of the way to Jessup from Severn).

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45 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

In the cruel kick-in-the-junk irony category i see Stephens city getting bullseyed with a shower while I have clear blue skies out here.

Dude it looks like Ireland here. I think we can survive a few rainless days.

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Guidance is generally backing off on the more widespread heavy rain potential for tomorrow into the weekend. Trend is for the front to push through faster and slow/stall further south, with HP nosing down from the NE. Would make for a really nice weekend, but for areas that miss the scattered pulsed convection in the weakly forced/weak flow regime, rain chances might come down to the frontal passage itself. Looks like any wave(s) that develop along the stalled boundary will mostly impact areas to the south.

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Guidance is generally backing off on the more widespread heavy rain potential for tomorrow into the weekend. Trend is for the front to push through faster and slow/stall further south, with HP nosing down from the NE. Would make for a really nice weekend, but for areas that miss the scattered pulsed convection in the weakly forced/weak flow regime, rain chances might come down to the frontal passage itself. Looks like any wave(s) that develop along the stalled boundary will mostly impact areas to the south.

Drought??

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I had a few drops at some point overnight. Registered nothing in the rain gauge. Probably a slightly better chance over here today, but again not really much of any forcing to initiate lift, so most likely storms will pop due to terrain influences, and along local boundaries. Maybe right along the bay and the immediate coast if a sea breeze develops.

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