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CAPE

June 2021 Discussion/Obs

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Valid Tuesday June 08, 2021 to Monday June 14, 2021

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT May 31 2021

Synopsis: Model guidance shows mid-level high pressure established across the East at the beginning of the forecast period, bringing with it the potential for record high temperatures for the Northeast. This high pressure is forecast to lessen over the course of the week, keeping temperatures warm, but less concerning from a health perspective. Periods of enhanced onshore flow out of the western Gulf of Mexico have occurred across portions of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley over the last month, with another event possible at the start of Week-2. Locally heavy rainfall and river flooding may result across portions of the Southern Plains and Mississippi Valley. Mid-level low pressure is forecast over the Bering Sea and near the Pacific Coast throughout Week-2, but given the ongoing dry season for both locations no associated precipitation hazards are anticipated.

Hazards

  • Moderate risk of excessive heat for portions of the Northeast, Tue-Wed, Jun 8-9.
  • Slight risk of excessive heat for portions of the Northern and Central Plains, Upper and Middle Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast, Tue-Sat, Jun 8-12.
  • Slight risk of heavy rain for portions of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley, Tue Jun 8.
  • Flooding possible for portions of East Texas and Louisiana.

Detailed Summary

For Thursday June 03 - Monday June 07: WPC Days 3-7 U.S. Hazards

For Tuesday June 08 - Monday June 14: At the beginning of Week-2 consensus exists among the ensemble means of the GEFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models regarding anomalous ridging located near Montreal. This setup is likely to help drive the 582 dm isohypse into Canada, a sign of potentially record-breaking heat during early to mid-June for the Northeast. The National Blend of Models reflects this, despite the substantial forecast lead time, with forecast highs (and associated daily records) on June 8th of 90F for Burlington, VT (91F), 91F for Bangor, ME (92F), and 88F for Caribou, ME (87F). Calibrated reforecast guidance shows a 10-20% chance of record highs from roughly Boston northward, supporting a moderate risk of excessive heat on June 8th and 9th. Reforecast guidance also indicates a slight risk of excessive heat stretching from the Dakotas eastward to the Atlantic, with the southern extent as far south as the U.S. capital region, for June 8th-12th.

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Mount Holly AFD on the heavy rain potential this week-

The pattern will quickly become more active heading into Wednesday night and Thursday. Expect a long southwesterly fetch generated by a broad dome of high pressure over the Western Atlantic and a deepening upper level trough that moves over the eastern CONUS. This will push a PWAT surge in over the region and between these features, we`ll have a slow moving/stagnant frontal system that be the trigger for fairly widespread shower activity heading into Thursday evening. We`ve opted to including mention of heavy rain at this time after collaborating with neighboring offices and with WPC. WPC`s Excessive Rainfall Outlook is carrying a D3 Marginal Risk and this is well supported over the PHI forecast area. From a synoptic point of view we`re looking at the potential for a Maddox Synoptic pattern to develop over the Mid Atlantic. Guidance at the surface has been a bit inconsistent, however aloft, the guidance looks to be in decent agreement. We`ll have a slow moving trough aloft with a deep moisture plume ahead. In the mid levels, BUFKit shows deep southwesterly moist flow from basically the surface up to 300mb with a slight veering profile. At the surface we`ll have a slow moving/stalled frontal system over the region. So when you add up those features, along with deep warm cloud depths, small MBE vectors, PWAT`s approaching 1.7-1.9" which would be in close to the 90th percentile should that verify, and storms that develop on the boundary rather than move off, the potential exists to see some localized flooding Thursday night. We`ll certainly need to keep an eye out for trends to see how things shake out over the next couple of guidance cycles but for at least the last 4 guidance cycles the potential has been there.

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Happy Climatological Summer! 

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28 minutes ago, mappy said:

Happy Climatological Summer! 

And it will feel like summer in earnest by this weekend, and especially next week.

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14 minutes ago, CAPE said:

And it will feel like summer in earnest by this weekend, and especially next week.

Good. Pool was 76 last week before the rain, got down to 68 afterwards, need some sun and warmth to warm that baby back up so momma can enjoy

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3 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

I'll take NW Montana for the win please

A tad nippy, but that would still be late morning out there. Hard to turn down highs in the 50s/60s for me though lol.

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18 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

That is one funny looking map -- MD to FL basking in low to mid 80s while northern New England bakes in upper 90s

Just the orientation of the ridge. It wont last long up there- probs a day or 2. We are gonna bake down here next week for multiple days.

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This is what almost everyone here has been jonesing for. :whistle:

I know y'all wont get tired of it over the next 3 months or so.

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14 minutes ago, CAPE said:

12z GFS has low to mid 90s for DC all next week then tops it off with 100 the following Monday lol.

YESSS

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

This is what almost everyone here has been jonesing for. :whistle:

I know y'all wont get tired of it over the next 3 months or so.

bring it. 

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1 hour ago, mattie g said:

DrOugHt11!1!!1

Euro even drier through D10. Going to get crispy again :(

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20 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Marginal risk for excessive rain tomorrow then we bake.

It us. One of the things we just do well

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15 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro even drier through D10. Going to get crispy again :(

We flood before we crisp.  

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18 hours ago, CAPE said:

12z GFS has low to mid 90s for DC all next week then tops it off with 100 the following Monday lol.

 

18 hours ago, CAPE said:

This is what almost everyone here has been jonesing for. :whistle:

I know y'all wont get tired of it over the next 3 months or so.

NOT from this corner, YUCK! 

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17 minutes ago, mattie g said:

It’s going to be about 90 for a few days - beyond that, who knows? The freaking drama...

:lol:

Beyond that? This is it for the next 5 months lol. 

Sun trying to peak out

70 degrees 

 

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Mean upper ridge shifts west on the ens means by mid month. Probably would bring us just typical heat and not as humid.

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_55.png

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9 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Mean upper ridge shifts west on the ens means by mid month. Probably would bring us just typical heat and not as humid.

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_55.png

mmmmm... NW flow events

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