June 2021

[donsutherland1]

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

the prediction for 111 at Seattle on Monday is astonishing.  Do you think NYC/Long Island could ever see that kind of heat?  Seattle has never even gotten higher than 103 before, while JFK has reached 104 so I think with the right set up it's possible.

 

In a few decades with a general business-as-usual energy policy, the right synoptic set up might produce such extremes. But it would still be a very rare event.

[Rtd208]

Brutal out there.

Current temp 84/DP 70/RH 64%

[Stormlover74]

41 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

showering in Piscataway 

Pouring in Plainfield 

Picked up a quick .24"

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

I cant wait until we have another 1966......

 

The most impressive calendar day all-time warm season record for the NE in recent years may have been the 80° low in BTV.

 

[lee59]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

the prediction for 111 at Seattle on Monday is astonishing.  Do you think NYC/Long Island could ever see that kind of heat?  Seattle has never even gotten higher than 103 before, while JFK has reached 104 so I think with the right set up it's possible.

 

I'm seeing with the national weather service a forecast high 104

[dmillz25]

85/70 here. Fml

[LoboLeader1]

Down right miserable to be doing working outdoors today.

Temp 77

Humidity: 74%

Dew Point: 68.0 F 

[uncle W]

4 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Florida style pattern has arrived.  Dewpoints into or near 70s.  Clouds probably in the way of many 90s today but more sun starting Sunday will get most there. Season of the Western Atlantic Ridge.  Ridge backs west over the area through early July with high heights and 850 temps >18c,  plenty of mid 90s and some upper 90s on the sunnier days, but expect (much like Florida) storms to fire each day Sun (6/27) - Thu (7/1).  

Beyond there, a split and a reverse ECM now maintains ridging stronger and front and any closed off low well west into the Ohio valley, while the GFS has the ULL come through between 7/2 - 7/4.  Id say take the compromise, thie W Atlantics ridge means business and beyond the July 4th weekend it looks to remain warm to hot overall.

first thing I thought of when I went out this morning was how much it reminds me of Florida...so far today is saved by a thin line of showers along the coast...the line goes down to Virginia...I bracing for the heat...praying there will be some relief from it like you dont see in Florida...

[LibertyBell]

16 minutes ago, uncle W said:

first thing I thought of when I went out this morning was how much it reminds me of Florida...so far today is saved by a thin line of showers along the coast...the line goes down to Virginia...I bracing for the heat...praying there will be some relief from it like you dont see in Florida...

we need a dehumidifier in the worst way.  If the western states can use cloud seeding to increase their rainfall by 15% why can't we have a dehumidifier to reduce our humidity by 15%?

 

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, Will - Rutgers said:

showering in Piscataway 

Very heavy downpour here that delivered a quick 0.35". A pleasant surprise that I won't have to water the garden this weekend. With only isolated downpours today, I figured I'd have the usual bad luck and get nothing.

[uncle W]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

we need a dehumidifier in the worst way.  If the western states can use cloud seeding to increase their rainfall by 15% why can't we have a dehumidifier to reduce our humidity by 15%?

 

how about a pipe line of water from the great lakes to the west...desalination of Ocean water too...

[stemwinder]

1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

Very heavy downpour here that delivered a quick 0.35". A pleasant surprise that I won't have to water the garden this weekend. With only isolated downpours today, I figured I'd have the usual bad luck and get nothing.

We got that brief downpour here in the W Windsor/Princeton area.  About .35 as well.  

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, uncle W said:

how about a pipe line of water from the great lakes to the west...desalination of Ocean water too...

that would be perfect and would fix so many problems.  2021 is I fear going to be beyond anything we've seen before.  We're not going to escape the effects here either, looks like food prices are going to go way up with all this heat and drought out there.

[uncle W]

18 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

that would be perfect and would fix so many problems.  2021 is I fear going to be beyond anything we've seen before.  We're not going to escape the effects here either, looks like food prices are going to go way up with all this heat and drought out there.

nothing can be as bad as it was in the mid 1960's...or the 1930's out west...

[weathermedic]

77/73 at my station

[Rtd208]

Current temp 88/DP 75/RH 66% 

[SnoSki14]

4th of July weekend still doesn't look great. Gfs likely too progressive.

[uncle W]

down to 78 after heavy showers...

[Cfa]

Heavy sun showers in Bayonne. Nice to finally see convection.

[doncat]

Couple showers moved thru si.... 0.08 and 0.25 at my two gages. Hi temp of 83°.

[winterwarlock]

8 hours ago, bluewave said:

The 4th of July weekend still looks a bit uncertain as would be expected from a week out. An upper low stalls in the GL and OV while a piece of the WAR tries to hold on. The historic Western Ridge builds over the top and results in high pressure across southern Canada. With a little luck, the slow moving boundary comes through Friday into Saturday rather than the 4th on Sunday. This is the current Euro idea with high pressure pushing the convection south of our area by then.

 

All things considered  look at the forecast for this weekend and early next week 7-8 days ago. 3-5 inches of rain and ark posts last week. I dont put much stock in these 7 day runs which really have been poor the past few months and then change as we get closer

[uncle W]

2 hours ago, uncle W said:

down to 78 after heavy showers...

shot up to 88 now with the Sun out...

[forkyfork]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That was due the models underestimating the strength of the WAR from 7-10 days out. But every WAR amplification is followed by a pulse down. So when this heatwave begins to fade later next week, then the heavy convection chances will come. The big question is how quickly the slow moving front will clear the area. With a little luck, things clear out by the 4th. The best convection chances have followed our late May and early June heatwaves. Even with the remarkable WAR pattern in recent years, there are going to be breaks between major 594 dm + WAR amplifications. We still aren’t too the point of a constant 594dm ridge during the summer

still, it's kind of unsettling to see this so early. the war climo peak is late july through mid august 

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

still, it's kind of unsettling to see this so early. the war climo peak is late july through mid august 

We are in new territory with the magnitude of these simultaneous PACNW and NE ridge amplifications. The PACNW and SW Canada  have all-time heat and 500mb heights. The 500mb heights for us are near the highest for the month of June. Pretty extreme to be happening at the same time. 

 

[nycwinter]

32 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

still, it's kind of unsettling to see this so early. the war climo peak is late july through mid august 

maybe  we will have a cooler end to summer..

[uncle W]

there were a lot of summers with cool endings growing up in the 1960's...1963 had three torrid heat waves with the last one coming in late July...August and September 63 was one of the coolest on record...the year before in 1962 had a much cooler second half of Summer...recent years have seen summer hold on till mid September...

[donsutherland1]

A very warm and humid air mass now covers the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Under partly sunny skies, temperatures could approach or reach 90° in parts of the region tomorrow. A shower or thundershower is possible. The warmth will continue through at least mid-week next week.

Meanwhile, out West a historic, if not unprecedented heat event, is now underway. The ongoing epic heatwave in the Pacific Northwest fried numerous June monthly records. Preliminary high temperatures included:

Eugene, OR: 103° (old record: 99°, 2015) ***New June Record***
Kamloops, BC: 103° (old record: 101°, 2006) ***New June Record***
Lillooet, BC: 109° (old record: 98°, 2002) ***New All-Time Record***
Lytton, BC: 111° (old record: 104°, 2006) ***New All-Time Record***
Portland: 108° (old record: 102°, 2006) ***New All-Time Record***
Seattle: 102° (old record: 90°, 2006) ***New June Record***
The Dalles, OR: 110° (old record: 103°, 2017) ***Tied June Record***
Vancouver: 87° (old record: 86°, 2002) ***New June Record***
Victoria, BC: 95° (old record: 85°, 2002) ***New June Record for the 2nd Consecutive Day***
Yakima, WA: 104° (tied record set in 2015)

This heatwave will further intensify tomorrow. Numerous all-time high temperature records will likely be smashed, some by large margins. After Monday, the core of the heat will shift somewhat to the north and east. Readings will remain much above normal in parts of eastern Washington State, Oregon, Idaho, and eastern British Columbia.

Records for select cities:

Kamloops, BC:
June 27: 99° (37.1°C), 2006
June 28: 100° (37.7°C), 2008
June 29: 102° (39.1°C), 2008

June record: 103° (39.5°C)
All-time record: 105° (40.8°C)

Portland:
June 27: 98°, 2000
June 28: 100°, 2008
June 29: 97°, 1951

June record: 108°
All-time record: 108°

Seattle:
June 27: 92°, 2015
June 28: 91°, 1995 and 2008
June 29: 93°, 1987

June record: 101°
All-time record: 103°

Spokane:
June 27: 102°, 2015
June 28: 105°, 2015
June 29: 98°, 1939

June record: 105°
All-time record: 108°

Climate change has increased the frequency, magnitude, and duration of extreme heat events in the United States and worldwide. Further increases are likely in coming decades as the world's climate continues to warm.

During the 1971-00 period, there was a statistical 0.9% probability that the temperature would reach or exceed 90° during June 26-28. For the 1991-20 period, that figure had increased to 2.0%. That's an implied 55% increase tied to climate change. Actual outcomes saw Seattle record 90° temperatures on 1.1% of days within that period during 1971-00 and 4.4% during the 1991-20 timeframe. For Portland, the statistical probability of a 90° day during the June 26-28 period was 6.2% during the 1971-00 period and 10.4% during the 1991-20 period. That's an implied 40% increase tied to climate change. The actual outcomes were 6.6% during the 1971-00 period and 12.2% during the 1991-20 period. That actual outcomes exceeded statistical outcomes is consistent with ongoing warming.   

In large part on account of Phoenix's recent extreme heat event, there is an implied 89% probability that June 2021 will become Phoenix's warmest June on record with a mean temperature near 95.0°. The existing record of 94.8° was set in 2013 and tied in 2016.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around June 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

The SOI was +5.83 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.456 today.

On June 24 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.308 (RMM). The June 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.532 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.0° (2.0° above normal).

 

[wdrag]

Obviously depends on persistence for PWAT over our subforum through 8PM July 5,  and so the the several (June 26) GFS op cycles of 4+ and now 3+ on the12z/2e6  EC, may end up too high for a MAX isolated point total.  So lets' unscientifically cut the 7 to 3.5... max total somewhere in the subforum by July 5.... Not too hard to come by within one 3 hours merging cluster of storms.

The uncertainty is where persistence will occur between June 28th-July 4. PWAT, almost throughout that period is 1.8" or above near NYC...  and Thickness near 576 with weak boundaries, suggests to me some big storms (damaging wet downbursts) coming in the high CAPE air this coming week. Dates and where??  Based on what I've seen I am expecting two days of SVR in the subforum this week. Whether extensive or not??  but seems hard to miss big storms that are capable of producing localized FF and/or wind damage.  No topic from myself because while it might be a little early in the summer, I just look at background thicknesses in the dead of summer (not looking at climo) and consider this within the norm. IF it becomes evident that we can have storms gain attention of a sizable percent of our forum, will try to generate a topic but reserved for now - just monitoring cyclicly.  

 

By the way I see NJ did nice today with many 0.1 to 1/4" amounts, even an isolated .49 per data.  GFS convective output has been offering this for quite a while and even the conservative EC.

 

Worthy of monitoring GFS convective output in the subforum, especially ending 18z and 00z 6 hour time periods. and convective leftovers ending 06z.  There should be something daily somewhere in our subforum through ~July 4. 

[MJO812]

[SACRUS]

6/26

EWR: 86
TTN: 85
PHL: 85
New Brnswck: 85
LGA: 85
BLM: 83
TEB: 83
NYC: 83
ACY: 82
JFK: 80
ISP: 78