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April Discobs 2021


George BM
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3 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z EURO (days 8-10) looks atrocious -- see 850mb temp anomaly

Going to the Os game Saturday May 8th as a mothers day present for the moms in our family...good thing we got a skybox for the game:lol:. Looks like a good chance itll be on the cool side, maybe even some rain. Hopefully not a wash

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Just now, Baltimorewx said:

Going to the Os game Saturday May 8th as a mothers day present for the moms in our family...good thing we got a skybox for the game:lol:. Looks like a good chance itll be on the cool side, maybe even some rain. Hopefully not a wash

Good for you. I’m heading up tomorrow for the business person’s special.

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15 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Good for you. I’m heading up tomorrow for the business person’s special.

Yeah, some of the moms in our family are in their 70s to near 80 so figured that would be most comfortable for them. Some coming from NY and some from VA. Should be a nice time regardless. Have fun man!

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Yay wind!

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
359 AM EDT Thu Apr 29 2021

MDZ003>006-008-011-014-503>508-VAZ028-030-031-505>508-WVZ051>053-
291600-
/O.NEW.KLWX.HW.A.0002.210430T1500Z-210501T0900Z/
Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Cecil-
Southern Baltimore-Anne Arundel-Northwest Montgomery-
Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard-
Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-
Frederick VA-Warren-Clarke-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-
Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Morgan-
Berkeley-Jefferson-
Including the cities of Hagerstown, Frederick, Ballenger Creek,
Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Elkton,
Baltimore, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate,
Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda,
Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia,
Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen, Winchester, Front Royal,
Berryville, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, Sterling,
Big Meadows, Wintergreen, Paw Paw, Martinsburg, Charles Town,
and Shepherdstown
359 AM EDT Thu Apr 29 2021

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph
  possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central, north central, northeast and
  northern Maryland, central, northern and northwest Virginia
  and panhandle West Virginia.

* WHEN...From Friday morning through late Friday night.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power
  lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strong wind gusts will arrive behind the
  cold front on Friday morning, and again Friday evening and into
  the night as a powerful system crosses the region.
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Yes we do wind. It almost never underperforms. Latest discussion from Mount Holly-

West to northwesterly winds will increase substantially as the day progresses, especially into the evening hours, as the aforementioned mid-level height falls and cold advection will support efficient mixing to the 850-900 mb levels through at least the early evening. Additionally, the vorticity maxima will cause tropopause folding down to around the 500 mb level, which is often indicative of very steep lapse rates. These factors are expected to preclude any question regarding the unfavorable timing of maximum wind fields during the evening hours (less of the typical diurnal mixing). Just about all of the 00Z guidance suite indicate winds speeds in these levels during this time increasing to 40-50+ kts, which are likely to mix to the ground in the form of frequent wind gusts. Expect sustained winds of 20-25 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph by the afternoon hours, with gusts increasing to the 45-55+ mph range during the evening hours. Sustained winds are forecast to peak in the 30-35 mph range near the coasts and in the higher terrain north and west. At this juncture, Wind Advisory criteria wind gusts (45 mph or greater) appear likely, especially from around 2 PM Friday through around 2 AM Saturday across most of the area. We`ve issued a High Wind Watch for this period given the potential for wind gusts of 55- 60 mph for a few hours, mainly during the evening (7 PM through midnight). Additionally, potential exists for greater impacts than a typical solid Wind Advisory event owing to the green up and foliage on most trees in the area. Falling trees or tree limbs may bring down power lines, potentially resulting in scattered power outages. This will be a very long duration (~12 hr) high wind event, with potentially significant impacts to the area.

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2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Yes we do wind. It almost never underperforms. Latest discussion from Mount Holly-

West to northwesterly winds will increase substantially as the day progresses, especially into the evening hours, as the aforementioned mid-level height falls and cold advection will support efficient mixing to the 850-900 mb levels through at least the early evening. Additionally, the vorticity maxima will cause tropopause folding down to around the 500 mb level, which is often indicative of very steep lapse rates. These factors are expected to preclude any question regarding the unfavorable timing of maximum wind fields during the evening hours (less of the typical diurnal mixing). Just about all of the 00Z guidance suite indicate winds speeds in these levels during this time increasing to 40-50+ kts, which are likely to mix to the ground in the form of frequent wind gusts. Expect sustained winds of 20-25 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph by the afternoon hours, with gusts increasing to the 45-55+ mph range during the evening hours. Sustained winds are forecast to peak in the 30-35 mph range near the coasts and in the higher terrain north and west. At this juncture, Wind Advisory criteria wind gusts (45 mph or greater) appear likely, especially from around 2 PM Friday through around 2 AM Saturday across most of the area. We`ve issued a High Wind Watch for this period given the potential for wind gusts of 55- 60 mph for a few hours, mainly during the evening (7 PM through midnight). Additionally, potential exists for greater impacts than a typical solid Wind Advisory event owing to the green up and foliage on most trees in the area. Falling trees or tree limbs may bring down power lines, potentially resulting in scattered power outages. This will be a very long duration (~12 hr) high wind event, with potentially significant impacts to the area.

Yep,  we do wind rather well in these parts,  and this event has the potential to be a memorable one, due to the long duration as mentioned in the AFD and the peak gusts. Only savings grace is that the ground is not saturated for once.   

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I have to say I enjoy wind.  Most of the events seem to fall short or bust.  I have been doing some (tree) prep work and it looks like the timing of this if it verifies couldn't be worse!  And like the guy that has the snowblower in the shop, that's when the big snow goes bigger so look out!  These pines have strong stumps/roots but they like to break high up making things more dangerous and tedious to clean up.  At least they're nowhere near people or power lines.

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17 hours ago, mattie g said:

@Mrs.J and @WxUSAF...

How much solar do you get in the winter? You'd have to get some, even with the low sun angle, right?

What percentage of your energy use in the winter comes from solar?

 

17 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Minimum is like 300-400 kWh in December and January. Ends up being like 15-20% of total power. Our system doesn’t generate enough to run off credits in the darker months. We end up getting about 6-7 months of the year off the panels more or less. Winter is our biggest power usage from heating, way more then A/C in the summer.

Yea like @WxUSAF said winter is lower. This winter in particular. Our system covers 80% of the household power. Our solar benefits start around Mar and go through Oct/Nov. We live in a TH that the front faces E and the back W. We have a lot of windows, hence the model called the Brightwell. As soon as the DST changes in the spring lights are not on in the house till around 8pm. Also run our AC less than most people. 

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