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April Discobs 2021


George BM
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Yay we got added in! :lol:

 

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
232 PM EDT Thu Apr 29 2021

DCZ001-MDZ013-VAZ053-054-300245-
/O.EXA.KLWX.HW.A.0002.210430T1500Z-210501T0900Z/
District of Columbia-Prince Georges-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-
Including the cities of Washington, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill,
Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Reston,
Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia,
Arlington, Alexandria, and Falls Church
232 PM EDT Thu Apr 29 2021

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Potential for west-northwesterly wind gusts of 60 mph.

* WHERE...The District of Columbia, Prince Georges County in
  Maryland, and Arlington and Fairfax Counties in Virginia including
  the independent cities of Alexandria, Fairfax and Falls Church.

* WHEN...From Friday morning through late Friday night.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power
  lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The highest wind may occur in two waves:
  one Friday afternoon, and a second Friday evening.
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@nj2va approves!

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
232 PM EDT Thu Apr 29 2021

MDZ001-VAZ503-WVZ501-505-300245-
/O.NEW.KLWX.FZ.A.0003.210501T0400Z-210501T1300Z/
Garrett-Western Highland-Western Grant-Western Pendleton-
Including the cities of Mountain Lake Park, Oakland, Grantsville,
Hightown, Bayard, Mount Storm, and Riverton
232 PM EDT Thu Apr 29 2021

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 31 possible.

* WHERE...In Maryland, Garrett County. In Virginia, Western
  Highland County. In West Virginia, Western Grant and Western
  Pendleton Counties.

* WHEN...From late Friday night through Saturday morning.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor
  plumbing.
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No thanks LWX re wind from their afternoon AFD

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure is expected to deepen steadily near New England
Friday, and a secondary cold front will follow Friday afternoon
and evening. This will cause strengthening winds across the
region, with a rather notable late season non-convective wind
event appearing increasingly likely.

The latest guidance shows steep lapse rates from the surface
into the mid levels of the atmosphere, where winds of well over
60 mph are forecast (about 5000 to 10000 feet above the ground).
While not all of this wind is unlikely to consistently mix all
the way to the ground, gusts of 50 to 55 mph are still likely
at the surface, with peak gusts to around 60 mph possible. The
highest wind may come in two waves: one with peak diurnal mixing
generally between 1 PM and 5 PM behind the secondary cold front,
and another with the mid-level trough axis during the evening.

The wind probably won`t die down more appreciably until very
late Friday night or early Saturday morning. The extended period
of wind and leafed-up trees may lead to more widespread power
outages and tree damage.

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Mount Holly is still bullish on the damaging wind potential as well.

A strong weather system remains on track to affect the region on Friday. We are expecting very windy conditions from early Friday afternoon through much of Friday night. Gusts over 45 mph are likely, and gusts to near 60 mph are possible. Scattered instances of downed trees and power outages are also expected, especially given many trees are now bearing leaves. This will likely be an impactful event. Very little change in the forecast philosophy this cycle. A cold front will be offshore by Friday morning. A strong shortwave trough and associated vort max will rotate through the region during the afternoon hours, which will also send a reinforcing cold front through. This is a dynamically impressive system, with very strong height falls expected in the local area tomorrow afternoon and evening. The approaching shortwave and good jet dynamics will also yield rapid intensification of low pressure departing into the Canadian maritimes, with its pressure dropping near to below 980 mb. At the same time, high pressure will be moving into the Great Lakes, which combined with the deepening low to the northeast will create a very strong pressure gradient, maximized over the mid-Atlantic.

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Here's hoping that everyone has lots of cereal, nuts and other things not needing a refrigerator.

AND a manual can opener for opening tinned meat ((which doesn't need to be cooked)).

((No news on people making a dash for the stores that might lose power...)

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10 minutes ago, arlwx said:

Here's hoping that everyone has lots of cereal, nuts and other things not needing a refrigerator.

AND a manual can opener for opening tinned meat ((which doesn't need to be cooked)).

((No news on people making a dash for the stores that might lose power...)

50-60 mph gust shouldn't cause widespread long duration power outages. 60 mph is right on the line though. Seems like that's the threshold in this area during the warm season for uprooting large trees. Already breezy out there.

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1 hour ago, arlwx said:

Here's hoping that everyone has lots of cereal, nuts and other things not needing a refrigerator.

AND a manual can opener for opening tinned meat ((which doesn't need to be cooked)).

((No news on people making a dash for the stores that might lose power...)

Can't do w/o power here!  Diesel tanks topped off (575 gallons on the gauge) and both gennies ready to spring into action if needed.  Not sure because in our neck of the woods even with 3 phase power all it takes is a dumb limb to hang up and trip out a recloser.  And trimming schedules have fallen way behind, lots of green far closer than 10' to primaries.

We did get a nice shower that put down nearly half an inch.  Gutter on west side overflowing, full of spruce needles I'm sure.  If it were up to me I'd have all these (trees) leveled out but wife says hell no.  There was some lightning picked up but to our south and east, didn't hear thunder but then again it would have had to been on the loud side with the "sizzling of bacon" sound of torrents of water hitting rocks! :D

This time let's hope the wind forecast busts a bit low which they usually do.  Could be like the wind we have a few weeks ago.  Most of deciduous here aren't close to full out but either way once that wind gusts past the old double nickel more than a few times otherwise healthy limbs become widow makers and that's not good.  Definitely don't want the kids playing near the trees.

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Quote

FXUS61 KLWX 301349
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
949 AM EDT FRI APR 30 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE 
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND, THEN SHIFT 
OFFSHORE NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10:00AM UPDATE: HAVE ADDED MOST OF THE DC METRO AND THE BLUE
RIDGE TO THE HIGH WIND WARNING AND MAKE A SLIDE EXPANSION TO THE
WIND ADVISORY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA BASED ON THE LONG DURATION OF
THE WIND AND HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN A SLIGHTLY STRONG WIND FIELD.

NOTE THAT THE EXTENDED DURATION OF STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES.

 

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