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February 10-12, 2021 Winter Event


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1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Got some bad news boss, looks like another jog south. I'll wait till the run is closer to done before making a firm assessment though.

Yup. Stronger confluence in Maine (that's been the trend since 0z today), overall less energetic shortwave. Pretty sure the Euro is now the farthest south with wave 2. Bummer. 

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2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

I don't expect anyone to listen but 50-75 mile shifts on globals run over run really doesn't mean much. The only "trend" I see has been detailed already with the "pac man" dry air bite out of the NE periphery of the shield. I (We) have seen that before. Feb 2014 & 15 had some similar "erosion" with a few events. Euro could be spot on but I'd wait another 24 hours before spiking sour lemons. If your yard is still under the "general idea" you should still be thrilled. Lasering into to fine details starts with 0z tonight imo but even then... We're talking 50-100 miles in total distance here. That can happen in real time. 

Bump, because panic from some.

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Looking at the snow maps, less amped might be the best way to put it. Not sure it really moved all that south... just not nearly as impressive.
18z
1613109600-Jufg3ji5o44.png&key=f2fd3cd28529e4ef1cdb9b68aa5d081c63831e2d2919aa22b1453f163973c120
12z
1613109600-atUSikIUXbM.png&key=f17509165bfbb564b708522588305de4827cbf869efcd47df0289b00fdcfa44a
 
The euro and ensembles took us from 13 inches to 3 in one day....2 days before the event. I don't buy it..the euro is acting like a jv model
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Assuming a 17/1 ratio per Kuchera, DC-area could get close to 5".  Limiting the upper bound to a more realistic 12/1 yields 3-4".   Of course, temperatures may reach the mid 30s on Thursday afternoon during the lull.  So we could lose a bit due to melting by the time of the 2nd wave, which is forecast to drop 0.2-0.3" of snow per hour - for several hours 

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