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February 10-12, 2021 Winter Event


MN Transplant
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27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Rvarookie What part of this "confuses" you?  The euro has shown a distinct decrease in QPF and snowfall for 90% of everyone in this forum the last 5 runs in a row.  That is a pretty bad trend when we are this close to the event.  

Confused on how much the trend continues vs hopeful not too much to screw mby

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7 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

12z QPF roundup for posterity... still pretty significant differences in northern extent of precip:

image.thumb.png.11438d1c851e4782791955ef6ee60e11.png

thanks for this. really good visual of what all are showing. I will happily take .3 qpf and whatever snow falls. 

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Part of the issue is also the duration, and we are talking about 2 waves over 2 days. Maybe the cold this time will work a bit more magic than past storms. But even in  D.C and close-in suburbs, I don't know how you can feel that confident that .6 of precip over two days is really going to get the job done, when you consider how dense environments/pavement have a tendency to eat away at snow, even with below-freezing temperatures.  A 2 to 4 inch snow over two days could easily really end being a very minor event, when you see what remains.

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Just now, real said:

Part of the issue is also the duration, and we are talking about 2 waves over 2 days. Maybe the cold this time will work a bit more magic than past storms. But even in  D.C and close-in suburbs, I don't know how you can feel that confident that .6 of precip over two days is really going to get the job done, when you consider how dense environments/pavement have a tendency to eat away at snow, even with below-freezing temperatures.  A 2 to 4 inch snow over two days could easily really end being a very minor event..

As a resident of DC for almost 30 years... it does snow here contrary to popular opinion. I don’t think this will have any problem sticking. Every time we have a snow drought period it’s really impacted the boards psyche. 

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1 minute ago, chris21 said:

As a resident of DC for almost 30 years... it does snow here contrary to popular opinion. I don’t think this will have any problem sticking. Every time we have a snow drought period it’s really impacted the boards psyche. 

I am  not saying it won't stick, but one key of a  good DC snow is at some point you need at least some good rates, or you tend to lose almost as much as you are gaining, especially if this is broken up over two daylight cycles.  Temperatures may help this time, but temperatures usually end up warmer than modeled in the city, absent at least some good rates at some point during the "storm"

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2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Well, we are here sitting with a min of 0.5” QPF after not having a warning-level event in a couple of years.  Not feeling bad about northern MD.

and you shouldn't! I've got 17" so far this year, leaps and bounds better than last year. Hope you guys score this time. 

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Just now, caviman2201 said:

Can someone smarter than me tell me what they're thinking about ratios on this? Seems plenty cold but soundings show very little lift in the DGZ for this event. WxBell showing Kuchera ratios around 8-10:1. Does that seem reasonable?

For me it really depends on the rate of preciptation...Im sure somebody with more knowledge about DGZ and all that can chime in, but some of the soundings probably show crappy rates and therefore not great ratios.  Light pixie dust just doesnt pile up

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1 minute ago, Baltimorewx said:

For me it really depends on the rate of preciptation...Im sure somebody with more knowledge about DGZ and all that can chime in, but some of the soundings probably show crappy rates and therefore not great ratios.  Light pixie dust just doesnt pile up

This won’t be a pixie dust type snow. Not in this setup. 

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10 minutes ago, real said:

Part of the issue is also the duration, and we are talking about 2 waves over 2 days. Maybe the cold this time will work a bit more magic than past storms. But even in  D.C and close-in suburbs, I don't know how you can feel that confident that .6 of precip over two days is really going to get the job done, when you consider how dense environments/pavement have a tendency to eat away at snow, even with below-freezing temperatures.  A 2 to 4 inch snow over two days could easily really end being a very minor event, when you see what remains.

Accurate, and sadly what is most likely to happen. Unless things look better at 18z and 00z, this will likely just be a nice long stretch of uneventful, conversational snow for DC proper. 
 

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7 minutes ago, GATECH said:

Gonna hug the Mar 9, 1999 example the @Deck Pic threw out yesterday.  That was a surprise over-performer, similar setup.  I think the models have set the goal posts between Richmond and Baltimore, other than that Radar watching time tomorrow evening.

I like that analogy.  That was a distinct overperformer and very location dependent. it was dumping snow in Fairfax during the morning rush while it was doing almost nothing over the beltway in Silver Spring.  

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10 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

It’s not”drying up” because it does not predict but rather right now is covering the drier example base. 6 and 12 hours from now another example will be given 

Yes... you are right the models are programmed not to attempt to produce the most accurate simulation each run, but to intentionally jump all over the place and show every possible outcome so that we can...I dunno your motive here is a little unclear...screw with snow weenies?  And...they do this because EVERY weather agency in the world, public and private, even ones that compete with each other, encompassing tens of thousands of people, are all in bed as part of some HUGE conspiracy to...again your motive is kinda weak here...I guess they just recruit a bunch of people who have no morals and want to fool the public and screw with snow weenies and they all come together across dozens of countries and agencies for that goal!  I am so glad we have you to shine a light on this.  

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Watch issued for eastern West Virginia and western Maryland for 5-8" for part one. 

 

Garrett-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-
Western Highland-Eastern Highland-Hampshire-Hardy-Western Grant-
Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton-
Eastern Pendleton-
223 PM EST Tue Feb 9 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8
  inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of western Maryland, western Virginia and
  eastern West Virginia.

* WHEN...From Wednesday evening through Thursday morning.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS... Additional snow is expected Thursday
  afternoon through Friday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

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9 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

Can someone smarter than me tell me what they're thinking about ratios on this? Seems plenty cold but soundings show very little lift in the DGZ for this event. WxBell showing Kuchera ratios around 8-10:1. Does that seem reasonable?

The ratio conversation was a couple of pages back.  Around 10:1 or slightly under was the consensus, so yes, 8-10:1 seems reasonable.

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5 minutes ago, jayyy said:

This won’t be a pixie dust type snow. Not in this setup. 

Why not?...If the overall QPF and rates arent there, and its just light stuff, cant it be pixie dust? Especially in a WAA event? The WAA event last Sunday on Jan 31 with the WAA associated with the miller B was a lot of pixie dust for me outside of about 90 mins of good rates that gave me most of my 4" of snow

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11 minutes ago, real said:

I am  not saying it won't stick, but one key of a  good DC snow is at some point you need at least some good rates, or you tend to lose almost as much as you are gaining, especially if this is broken up over two daylight cycles.  Temperatures may help this time, but temperatures usually end up warmer than modeled in the city, absent at least some good rates at some point during the "storm"

Just using the GFS output for the sake of discussion, but I do think we will see some accumulations and not have issues sticking.  Much colder airmass than the last storm thank god.   

Part 1: Temp at 32 for onset of precip tomorrow night 00z.  Overnight 0.2 QPF with temps around 30.  

Part 2: Thursday daytime lull, temps in the low 30s, all the roads mostly melt out on their own.

Part 3: Temp in the 20s for onset at 06z Friday.  Overnight 0.2 QPF with temps falling into the lower 20s.

If this scenario played out you'd see 1-3 inches in part 1 which would melt and compact a bit during the day Thursday with another 1-3 inches on top of that.  

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