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MN Transplant

February 10-12, 2021 Winter Event

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9 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

This thread has a completely different tone versus DT update 20 minutes ago....

Where does DT live again?

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Doesn't this kind of make more sense though for typical "climo" on these kinds of very weak non amplifying WAA waves?  I don't remember too many like this that produced a foot of snow around here like the Euro was tossing out for days.  Maybe I am forgetting some...but these are more typically light to moderate events.  

Yeah, I didn't buy the 12" stuff.  But with a long duration event, a widespread 4-8" seems doable.  Probably this works better in a Nino than a Nina.  Whether it's the Nina or something else, we've definitely struggled to "close" these snow events we've had.  We've lost ground in the last 48-72 hours every time this year.  

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Do Kuchera totals ever verify?  It seems like since I've been following them for several years they're almost always universally high.

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Just now, jaydreb said:

Sounds like too much doom and gloom. Blend these 3 models and most of us are happy, right?

F04DD9BA-8224-41EE-B0B4-0B7424166B6B.png

AB5B561D-FE41-49CF-9F0A-A94296974E5D.png

D588F603-A4CE-4089-AAFE-2FDE206134F9.png

Sure if you wanna forecast based just off Kuchera snow maps...but for instance the EURO only shows .25-.3 preciptation in the Baltimore metro...that aint piling up to 5" over 30 hours like that euro snow maps shows

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5 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Why the hell would DT hit the submit button on that post before the 12z Euro came out? :lol:

What's his handle on Twitter? Or do you have a link? 

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2 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Sure if you wanna forecast based just off Kuchera snow maps...but for instance the EURO only shows .25-.3 preciptation in the Baltimore metro...that aint piling up to 5" over 30 hours like that euro snow maps shows

Ok fair point.  Blend these then.  

34F497D0-FE1C-4A5D-9589-49A2E8371B78.png

0CD1C31D-1D8D-4D88-8B65-D4B0B3B0F669.png

347C38A1-30EB-4C77-9438-84FB058DB6D6.png
 

EDIT: Amazing how far apart GFS and Euro are with respect to precip in central VA.  

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4 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Sounds like too much doom and gloom. Blend these 3 models and most of us are happy, right?

F04DD9BA-8224-41EE-B0B4-0B7424166B6B.png

AB5B561D-FE41-49CF-9F0A-A94296974E5D.png

D588F603-A4CE-4089-AAFE-2FDE206134F9.png

These are clown maps. You can cut them in half at least. 

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1 minute ago, jaydreb said:

Ok fair point.  Blend these then.  

34F497D0-FE1C-4A5D-9589-49A2E8371B78.png

0CD1C31D-1D8D-4D88-8B65-D4B0B3B0F669.png

347C38A1-30EB-4C77-9438-84FB058DB6D6.png

Yeah, if the GFS and Canadian are more correct then most of us end up happy. Not trying to be doom and gloom. The euro wasnt encouraging but the rest of the 12z suite wasnt terrible

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2 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Ok fair point.  Blend these then.  

 

 


 

EDIT: Amazing how far apart GFS and Euro are with respect to precip in central VA.  

GFS managed to pretty much miss my yard with both waves. I am inclined to believe it. :lol:

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2 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Yeah, if the GFS and Canadian are more correct then most of us end up happy. Not trying to be doom and gloom. The euro wasnt encouraging but the rest of the 12z suite wasnt terrible

Yeah, I get it.  We want the Euro to be the most juiced, not the least.  And of course we have to worry about trends.  

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5 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Do Kuchera totals ever verify?  It seems like since I've been following them for several years they're almost always universally high.

Kuchera tends to do pretty well imby.  I am at 1550' and get higher than 10:1 frequently.  I also can get lower than 10:1 of course, but Kuchera usually sniffs this out reasonably well also.

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Just now, Baltimorewx said:

Yeah, if the GFS and Canadian are more correct then most of us end up happy. Not trying to be doom and gloom. The euro wasnt encouraging but the rest of the 12z suite wasnt terrible

I'd take the Euro/NAM over those two at this point. But at this point my confidence in 50 miles give or take is extremely low, which is becoming a good thing as we move away from the bullseye. 

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Just now, WesternFringe said:

Kuchera tends to do pretty well imby.  I am at 1550' and get higher than 10:1 frequently.  I also can get lower than 10:1 of course, but Kuchera usually sniffs this out reasonably well also.

Maybe it's because my elevation is only like 105ft and about 1/4 mile from the bay.  

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Hmmm this looks to be trending substantially drier from 0z with the high pressure and cold air winning out.   

Mentioned this early this morning we could be looking at a non event for many in my north of rout 50 maybe 1-2 inches


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6 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Ok fair point.  Blend these then.  

EDIT: Amazing how far apart GFS and Euro are with respect to precip in central VA.  

Great point.  I don't think any one particular model has nailed every event this winter.  Best to take a blend which would still be a nice event in DC.

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That central VA qpf on the GFS is wild compared to everything else.

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3 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

12z QPF roundup for posterity... still pretty significant differences in northern extent of precip:

image.thumb.png.11438d1c851e4782791955ef6ee60e11.png

The freakout over the euro really is odd given the GFS was the worst one.  Even the crazy NAM is a good event.

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EPS total qpf.  Wetter than the OP but drier than 6z.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ma-total_precip_inch-3152800.png

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27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Rvarookie What part of this "confuses" you?  The euro has shown a distinct decrease in QPF and snowfall for 90% of everyone in this forum the last 5 runs in a row.  That is a pretty bad trend when we are this close to the event.  

Confused on how much the trend continues vs hopeful not too much to screw mby

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1 minute ago, H2O said:

The freakout over the euro really is odd given the GFS was the worst one.  Even the crazy NAM is a good event.

Every single one of those is pretty good for the southern folks but that GFS, it's almost an inverse image of the others.  Weird stuff.

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4 minutes ago, LP08 said:

That central VA qpf on the GFS is wild compared to everything else.

Euro is kind of on an island with a dry wave 1.  GFS is definitely on an island with a paltry wave 2.  

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7 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

12z QPF roundup for posterity... still pretty significant differences in northern extent of precip:

image.thumb.png.11438d1c851e4782791955ef6ee60e11.png

thanks for this. really good visual of what all are showing. I will happily take .3 qpf and whatever snow falls. 

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26 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Sounds like too much doom and gloom. Blend these 3 models and most of us are happy, right?

F04DD9BA-8224-41EE-B0B4-0B7424166B6B.png

AB5B561D-FE41-49CF-9F0A-A94296974E5D.png

D588F603-A4CE-4089-AAFE-2FDE206134F9.png

I just averaged MBY and it came to 6.66 Uh huh. :devilsmiley:

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4 minutes ago, H2O said:

The freakout over the euro really is odd given the GFS was the worst one.  Even the crazy NAM is a good event.

Depends where you live lol..Il ltake the .6 on the GFS over the .3 on the Euro

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