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TheSnowman

1/31 - 2/2 Obs. / Nowcast

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5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

How did NYC, BWI and DC do?

Wasn't far off with my 25 million guess over 12 inches

20210202_215250.jpg

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4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Took my son to see the waves. There is no snow near the water.  Big differences in like 2 miles. 

Should have came to the NH seacoast! We didn’t jack but conditions here were awesome. 12” of paste, blizzard conditions on the immediate coast (Porstmouth was close, I bet I met criteria here) and the waves slamming over the Hampton wall made quite the show. Trying to decide what to do with the foot of icy seawater that’s found it’s way into my driveway courtesy of NHDOT plows with the snow banks acting like a nice soup bowl...

 

C6A507E6-8967-4ACF-9C17-6BA5D0B496C9.jpeg

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41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 Here is the Final Call for yesterday's winter storm:

 

FINAL%2BCALL.png
 

 

And what verified for the sake of comparison:

 

Verify.png

 

While this was a good forecast overall, there were three rather glaring issues that distinguished this particular efforts from some of the best forecasts.

1) The residual forcing from the parent system that infiltrated western New England was a bit stronger than indicated on the Final Call. A range of 8-16" would have been a more accurate representation.

2) The area of subsidence in the CT river valley was overstated. A general 8-12 swath would have sufficed, as opposed to the 4-8" and 6-10" ranges employed. This is likely related to the forcing from the original parent low remaining somewhat stronger across western New England, as alluded to in forecast critique #1. This likely negated some of the subsidence and down sloping that otherwise plagues the CT river valley in deep layer easterly flow events.

3) The snowfall gradient near the eastern Mass coast was about as sharp as has ever been witnessed, thus this was obvious underemphasized in the forecast. The thermal layer in the lower half of the atmosphere near the immediate north shore, and over much of southeastern Mass, the cape and islands was not able to overcome the marine influence as much as anticipated.

Other slight critiques interior northeast Mass, where a couple of 20" reports from West Newbury and Wilmington slightly exceeded the 12-18" forecast range. Additionally, the 12-18" range over southwestern CT should have been extended slightly further to the northeast, given the stronger forcing with the parent low.

Final Grade: B-

 

 

What would you give the NWS for a grade?

nws.jpg

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Ray, I give you an A for effort but a C overall. The local weather community: private/professional/and enthusiast, choked and choked like dogs for extreme Southern and eastern sections. The forecast across the board including among respected professionals was absolutely pitiful in these areas and no one is immune from criticism for this busted forecast. Newport and New Bedford's 6-8 on the main page BOX graphic and 5-9 in the point and clicks was the weather version of Bill Buckner in game 6. 

 

I have neither fans nor followers but my 2-4 inch call for my backyard was absolutely perfect. 

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29 minutes ago, ScottieBird said:

Ray, I give you an A for effort but a C overall. The local weather community: private/professional/and enthusiast, choked and choked like dogs for extreme Southern and eastern sections. The forecast across the board including among respected professionals was absolutely pitiful in these areas and no one is immune from criticism for this busted forecast. Newport and New Bedford's 6-8 on the main page BOX graphic and 5-9 in the point and clicks was the weather version of Bill Buckner in game 6. 

 

I have neither fans nor followers but my 2-4 inch call for my backyard was absolutely perfect. 

Yea, respectfully disagree. I think B- covers it...I think you are a bit biased bc the forecast busted in your back yard, which sucks...I get it. But for the region as a whole, it was decent....flawed, and thus not great, but decent.

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46 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, respectfully disagree. I think B- covers it...I think you are a bit biased bc the forecast busted in your back yard, which sucks...I get it. But for the region as a whole, it was decent....flawed, and thus not great, but decent.

Ray, thanks for respectfully disagreeing. My comments were partially tongue in cheek. I'm a fan of your weather analysis, your sense of humor and have been for many years.

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15 hours ago, PhineasC said:

I need @Jebman shoveling support up here. So many decks to clear.

Are the battery powered snow blowers any good for like 10" or so?

Might have to make a special trip up there to help you shovel the snow off all those decks lol. I dont know if the battery powered snowblowers will work in 10 inches of snow. You could try it. 

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6 hours ago, ScottieBird said:

Ray, I give you an A for effort but a C overall. The local weather community: private/professional/and enthusiast, choked and choked like dogs for extreme Southern and eastern sections. The forecast across the board including among respected professionals was absolutely pitiful in these areas and no one is immune from criticism for this busted forecast. Newport and New Bedford's 6-8 on the main page BOX graphic and 5-9 in the point and clicks was the weather version of Bill Buckner in game 6. 

 

I have neither fans nor followers but my 2-4 inch call for my backyard was absolutely perfect. 

Try nailing a forecast that had 22 inches in Newburyport on the ocean but nada in Gloucester 10 miles south or 12 inches in Westerly RI but 2 on the coast in Charleston RI 7 miles away.

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8 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Storm total? Not by Greg’s method though. 

Up to 16" now, still snowing lighty. It actually snowed nicely yesterday afternoon, but it was all white rain with temps sitting at 34⁰

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46 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Up to 16" now, still snowing lighty. It actually snowed nicely yesterday afternoon, but it was all white rain with temps sitting at 34⁰

Yup. That’s what I have.

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3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

From Stein’s article about the odd totals near the coast 

D7EF6BDE-695D-40CB-90A3-89EB8868BEAA.jpeg

Love me some coastal front. Getting blizzard conditions with a ESE wind was new to me as the front sat just a mile to my NW late that night.  Don't think I have seen trees pasted on the ESE side before up here 

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9 hours ago, DotRat_Wx said:

LBSW

20210202_215902.jpg

that little "peninsula" of blue in central NH was on most of the models for several days leading up to the storm. what was the impetus for that? Like, what would cause that gap in between the yellow/orange to the north and south?

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Still snowing only a 4-6 hour break yesterday midday now 52 of 56 hours of snow now. 18.8” after adding another .8” last night.  This is Kevin’s infamous days and days of snow finally, it does actually happen! 

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