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Bob Chill

Jan 31st - 33rd Storm Obs and Disco like it's 1979

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Just now, Kmlwx said:

I don't think the RGEM is a "terrible" model - but when it was the only one showing the banding arcing all the way back for the DC-Balt corridor I knew it was probably going to cave. That's when I tempered my expectations and buckled in for the WAA. 

Mechanics of a NS transfer are often hostile here for climo reasons and it's hard to beat that. The handoff kills the waa and if the handoff/re-development pushes the max north of us it's something my yard rarely recovers from. 

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1 minute ago, wxtrix said:

no, it’s not. good grief.

no need to be snippy about it!  Your avatar is perfect for you

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Just now, osfan24 said:

I just don't get how the coastal low is going to develop so far south and we totally whiff. It's in a good spot for us to get crushed and similar to previous storms that crushed us.

Off the DE/MD border coastline isn't going to do it for us. Would like it a decent bit south and east of there with the tuck. I glanced at a bunch of the models earlier and they seem to be focused in that area. Down off Norfolk or even a little north of there would be much better IMO. 

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Just now, Kmlwx said:

I don't think the RGEM is a "terrible" model - but when it was the only one showing the banding arcing all the way back for the DC-Balt corridor I knew it was probably going to cave. That's when I tempered my expectations and buckled in for the WAA. 

The Rgem seems kinda like the ukie to me.  More often than not if its out on a limb it doesn’t lead the way.  BTW I think the para has had the NYC jackpot for a while now, if that does indeed happen it’ll be a good performance for it IMO. 

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2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

I don't think the RGEM is a "terrible" model - but when it was the only one showing the banding arcing all the way back for the DC-Balt corridor I knew it was probably going to cave. That's when I tempered my expectations and buckled in for the WAA. 

I always thought the RGEM's biggest issue was it had a cold bias.

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2 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I just don't get how the coastal low is going to develop so far south and we totally whiff. It's in a good spot for us to get crushed and similar to previous storms that crushed us.

More goes into play here than surface low location. We need h5/h7 to have proper passage, and we need the trough to have a correct tilt. Without these things, there’s no precip shield building on the W flank of the storm. Everything gets firehosed to the NW of the storm into NJ and NYC. We’re caught between 2 storms. Again. 

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Snow tapering off in Southern AA county. Snowed lightly since 7:00 am. 1/2” so far and temps rising now at 32.1/30. Up from 29 at 7:00

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1 minute ago, mappy said:

i highly suggest you stop fretting about radar and models and enjoy whats falling. so much better that way. 

I have been outside all morning with my 2 year old daughter fully enjoying it. But it doesn’t change how I only have 3” and it’s the lightest pixie dust in history with a dry a lot approaching. 

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I have a real question.

If everything either had a wild swing leading up to this exact moment or totally overplayed it, why do you have confidence that Monday into Tuesday is a complete loss based on the same models?

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Just now, LeesburgWx said:

I have been outside all morning with my 2 year old daughter fully enjoying it. But it doesn’t change how I only have 3” and it’s the lightest pixie dust in history with a dry a lot approaching. 

okie dokie. you do you friend. enjoy what falls. 

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Just now, LeesburgWx said:

I have been outside all morning with my 2 year old daughter fully enjoying it. But it doesn’t change how I only have 3” and it’s the lightest pixie dust in history with a dry a lot approaching. 

I like your creative way of not actually saying the bad word ;)

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Just now, understudyhero said:

I have a real question.

If everything either had a wild swing leading up to this exact moment or totally overplayed it, why do you have confidence that Monday into Tuesday is a complete loss based on the same models?

Because the closer in, the better they get. And this is a Miller B that typically always develops too far N for us. I’m thinking tomorrow will be a complete bust but I’m gonna try to enjoy what we get today. Even though the 3K NAM struggles to get me to even 3” before the mix 

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Just now, understudyhero said:

I have a real question.

If everything either had a wild swing leading up to this exact moment or totally overplayed it, why do you have confidence that Monday into Tuesday is a complete loss based on the same models?

You must be new here hahahaha.  
 

Btw FATTIES in Takoma park outta nowhere.  

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1 minute ago, jayyy said:

More goes into play here than surface low location. We need h5/h7 to have proper passage, and we need the trough to have a correct tilt. Without these things, there’s no precip shield building on the W flank of the storm. Everything gets firehosed to the NW of the storm into NJ and NYC. We’re caught between 2 storms. Again. 

One thing that always bothered me about this one was the trough orientation. It always seemed slightly positive to neutral and our big ones show the trough negative.

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Just now, understudyhero said:

I have a real question.

If everything either had a wild swing leading up to this exact moment or totally overplayed it, why do you have confidence that Monday into Tuesday is a complete loss based on the same models?

There wasn't a "wild swing" with the WAA (part 1) of the storm. The shifts have been with the transfer to the coast and the Monday/Tuesday part of the event. The low location and the upper level stuff has adjusted just a touch to be unfavorable for us. 

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3 minutes ago, understudyhero said:

I have a real question.

If everything either had a wild swing leading up to this exact moment or totally overplayed it, why do you have confidence that Monday into Tuesday is a complete loss based on the same models?

Unfortunately yes because much uncertainty from coastal re-development process has been removed now. Surprises are possible always but 100 mile surprises are a bit much at this point if you ask me. I'll gladly take a surprise but so for this is going down like a long list of similar storms. Thankfully not as bad as a cluster of storms that have scarred even the most hardened weenie

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Just now, JakkelWx said:

The radar is slowly filling in from the west. Snow is definitely lighter and there is a little more than a coating on the ground, eyeballing it. Seems like the coastal is starting to take over

Have large snowflakes with moderate snow in Easton...makes me wonder where the sleet line is lurking

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1 minute ago, JakkelWx said:

The radar is slowly filling in from the west. Snow is definitely lighter and there is a little more than a coating on the ground, eyeballing it. Seems like the coastal is starting to take over

nope. 

Capture.JPG

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1 minute ago, JakkelWx said:

The radar is slowly filling in from the west. Snow is definitely lighter and there is a little more than a coating on the ground, eyeballing it. Seems like the coastal is starting to take over

the low is in Kentucky. come on.

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12z RGEM and Icon are still solid for MD going through the day with ~0.5” of QPF before any mix. 

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2 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Better rates and flakeage here while listening to Vince Guaraldi's Charlie Brown album.

Skating is such a great song and can be listened to all winter.

34 here, light snow, streets and siewalks wet. Taking first official measurement soon. Probably about 1”.

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7 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

There wasn't a "wild swing" with the WAA (part 1) of the storm. The shifts have been with the transfer to the coast and the Monday/Tuesday part of the event. The low location and the upper level stuff has adjusted just a touch to be unfavorable for us. 

I think his point is... who’s to say the low won’t actually transfer a touch further south and that models are wrong about what they show right now? I understand the question - but, as someone said, models gets better as we get closer, not worse. There’s also simply not enough confluence to our N to push this thing further south. Models have been weakening the Confluence slowly but surely for days.
 

Meanwhile, it’s only 17 degrees at my parents house in Rockland county NY leading up to this. Pretty Unreal. 1.5” of QPF headed their way with 12:1+ ratios for sure. 

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Just now, jayyy said:

I think his point is... who’s to say the low won’t actually transfer a touch further south and that models are wrong about what they show right now? I understand the question - but, as someone said, models gets better as we get closer, not worse. There’s also simply not enough confluence to our N to push this thing further south. Models have been weakening the Confluence slowly but surely for days.

physics, chemistry, oceanography, and mathematics

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