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Jan 31st - 33rd Storm Obs and Disco like it's 1979


Bob Chill
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7 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Some of you are getting sleepy right now, You're draggin' baby.

No sleep. NONE! Stay the fook up! This is your first real major snowstorm in FIVE YEARS! Drink coffee as though you are on a winning streak in Craps at MGM National Harbor overnight! Take Uppers, meth, whatever it will take to keep you all awake!

WE ARE TALKIN SNOW HERE! This is NOT to be missed!

I got somethin' for y'all for the overnight! This, is when it gets good!

 

 

Screenshot_20210131-021344_Chrome.jpg

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20 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Some of you are getting sleepy right now, You're draggin' baby.

No sleep. NONE! Stay the fook up! This is your first real major snowstorm in FIVE YEARS! Drink coffee as though you are on a winning streak in Craps at MGM National Harbor overnight! Take Uppers, meth, whatever it will take to keep you all awake!

WE ARE TALKIN SNOW HERE! This is NOT to be missed!

I got somethin' for y'all for the overnight! This, is when it gets good!

 

I miss the severe weather in Austin when I lived there. How's that been lately? I missed Juno and Jonas on Long Island which was rough enough for me to move back up. ;) 

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26 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I miss the severe weather in Austin when I lived there. How's that been lately? I missed Juno and Jonas on Long Island which was rough enough for me to move back up. ;) 

Since I've been down here, we have been fortunate not to get too much severe. It rains a LOT less here than in N VA. We see strong winds with some fronts in the cool season. But, no severe thunderstorms and no tornadoes and we generally never have to worry about hurricanes. They hit Houston, we are safely too far west.

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Just now, Jebman said:

Since I've been down here, we have been fortunate not to get too much severe. It rains a LOT less here than in N VA. We see strong winds with some fronts in the cool season. But, no severe thunderstorms and no tornadoes and we generally never have to worry about hurricanes. They hit Houston, we are safely too far west.

Hopefully that picks up soon. In my time there there (Jan 2015-Nov 2016) was a F1 that went less than a mile from me, decent hail events (best I saw was a golf ball severe event, luckily for me my car was under a canopy), a 80 mph bow echo and numerous other severe/tornado warnings. Anything I experienced on LI severe wise beneath paled in comparison. 

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The 06z RGEM begins to hint at explosive development off the coast by late Monday, looks like bad news for LI and se MA snow potential but possibly returning a stronger potential for MD-DC-VA as a lot of Atlantic moisture is going to be forced aloft and uppers are still marginally favorable (more than a few miles from the shore at least). Some place in PA will probably top four feet at this rate. If that's not too far from the PA-MD line then some place in MD could top three feet. This could get very interesting. 

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3 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

The 06z RGEM begins to hint at explosive development off the coast by late Monday, looks like bad news for LI and se MA snow potential but possibly returning a stronger potential for MD-DC-VA as a lot of Atlantic moisture is going to be forced aloft and uppers are still marginally favorable (more than a few miles from the shore at least). Some place in PA will probably top four feet at this rate. If that's not too far from the PA-MD line then some place in MD could top three feet. This could get very interesting. 

I’ll bet nobody in Maryland gets a foot much less 2 or 3. Do you ever post realistic expectations?

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10 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

The 06z RGEM begins to hint at explosive development off the coast by late Monday, looks like bad news for LI and se MA snow potential but possibly returning a stronger potential for MD-DC-VA as a lot of Atlantic moisture is going to be forced aloft and uppers are still marginally favorable (more than a few miles from the shore at least). Some place in PA will probably top four feet at this rate. If that's not too far from the PA-MD line then some place in MD could top three feet. This could get very interesting. 

Justin Berk?

Starting to see some flurries. Waiting on my 2 feet lol

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11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Hugging the Euro and 6z ICON for the coastal. Both get some nice banding here. Mount Holly seems less enthused about the potential lol.

The pretty maps.

1612342800-Sbf3LRjVcQY.png

1612321200-Uj3iuqBIvSg.png

One of the pieces of guidance I like to look at and others should too is the HRW WRF-NSSL which does a fairly decent job in the mesoscale and isn't as prone to crazy convective feedback issues like some of the CAM's. It's a pretty areawide 5-8" through 00z Tuesday with more snow afterwards, but the run ends since it only goes out to 48 hrs. It has you in 4-6" fairly easily. I'd be curious to see it's 12z run. I'm dissecting the HREF next and seeing what kind of signals I can deduce in terms if WAA snow, then coastal in a probabilistic sense. I'm going to try to make a rough map forecast, albeit late, for what I think might occur. I still want to see a picture of your house in the snow :) 

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Just now, MillvilleWx said:

One of the pieces of guidance I like to look at and others should too is the HRW WRF-NSSL which does a fairly decent job in the mesoscale and isn't as prone to crazy convective feedback issues like some of the CAM's. It's a pretty areawide 5-8" through 00z Tuesday with more snow afterwards, but the run ends since it only goes out to 48 hrs. It has you in 4-6" fairly easily. I'd be curious to see it's 12z run. I'm dissecting the HREF next and seeing what kind of signals I can deduce in terms if WAA snow, then coastal in a probabilistic sense. I'm going to try to make a rough map forecast, albeit late, for what I think might occur. I still want to see a picture of your house in the snow :) 

Thanks @MillvilleWx and everyone for the awesome analysis! Much appreciated!

Light Snow and 28 NW of Fredericksburg 

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