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January Long Range Disco Thread

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Just now, Ji said:

yes we need to see blue over our house. There has been no blue on the models and no white in your yard so yes...if you dont see blue...there is legit concern

Nah, I dont look at weather/life like you do.....my wife woulda left me a LOONNNGGGGGG time ago.

Try taking a look from a realist perspectve...not the 1 run that gave you 12+.  It really helps.

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1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

Nah, I dont look at weather/life like you do.....my wife woulda left me a LOONNNGGGGGG time ago.

Try taking a look from a realist perspectve...not the 1 run that gave you 12+.  It really helps.

i actually dont get excited about blue on the maps unless i see it 3-4 runs in a row. But everytime we have a good trend, the next 3-4 runs are 5 steps back. thats the realistic perspective. 

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Just now, Ji said:

euro is going to be close--closer than the GFS Or para

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

but.....

 

theres no BLUE over your house......

 

toss it.

 

Good lord you need to change your name to flip flop

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Just now, RedSky said:

Euro is trying hard to make it blue day 8

 

now that is blue---but that looks like playing with fire haha

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

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Just now, pasnownut said:

but.....

 

theres no BLUE over your house......

 

toss it.

 

Good lord you need to change your name to flip flop

did you see the rest of the run.....blue 

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:

euro is going to be close--closer than the GFS Or para

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

This is the period my weatherbug app says to expect snow at my house.  Lock it in.  

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Just now, Ji said:

now that is blue---but that looks like playing with fire haha

You should by a lifetime supply of Dramamine.....they say it really helps.

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Just now, IronTy said:

This is the period my weatherbug app says to expect snow at my house.  Lock it in.  

finally a model that shows what is suppose to happen in a blocking pattern. Not a cutter like GFS(which should be de-activated until we get it right) shows

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Just now, pasnownut said:

You should by a lifetime supply of Dramamine.....they say it really helps.

seeing blue to me makes all the difference. Now i have a model that is one you would like to have in your corner. Now it means shit if it shows rain at 00z which it will likely do

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Just now, Ji said:

seeing blue to me makes all the difference. Now i have a model that is one you would like to have in your corner. Now it means shit if it shows rain at 00z which it will likely do

but as RedSky pointed out...it's on an island...still nice to see blue and it fits more than a cutter...its a nice start

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Just now, BristowWx said:

but as RedSky pointed out...it's on an island...still nice to see blue and it fits more than a cutter...its a nice start

i would say the GGEM supports it somewhat no?

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_33.png

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3 minutes ago, Ji said:

i actually dont get excited about blue on the maps unless i see it 3-4 runs in a row. But everytime we have a good trend, the next 3-4 runs are 5 steps back. thats the realistic perspective. 

and at any given day or timestamp during a "good" period, you can often find blue over your house.  Yes, we also see the same trends you see, but just dont flip sh!t every 6 hours.  You've been at this almost as long as i have and should know that very rarely do we get into longwave stable patterns that just are chalk fulla blue over your house.  Of late, we've become experts at bootleggin more times than not.  Regardless, the upcoming period will continue to show you blue at varying intervals on varying models...and when we start seeing consensue build...I'll get excited right along w/ you.  Until then....keep it real.

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seems like the models with high pressure are giving us the blue.....even though it isnt the best CAD ever.

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6 minutes ago, Ji said:

finally a model that shows what is suppose to happen in a blocking pattern. Not a cutter like GFS(which should be de-activated until we get it right) shows

 

Screenshot_20210113-135344.png

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Just now, Ji said:

seems like the models with high pressure are giving us the blue.....even though it isnt the best CAD ever.

Ops need time grasshopper.........

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8 minutes ago, RedSky said:

ECM is the only model showing this nice snow, :yikes:

 

 

i mean you have the euro, the gfs and GGEM. 2/3 are showing something fun

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

i mean you have the euro, the gfs and GGEM. 2/3 are showing something fun

I believe this time it works out, if it's still 2 out of 3 at 0z

 

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Euro is a nice psychological boost.   But it changes every 12 hours and has no support.   Just this once, can we get something to f*cking stick
It was on the verge of something big last night right? So 2 good runs in a row?

Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk

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6 minutes ago, Ji said:

weatherbug must see the 850 temps at -22

My sources assure me that it's a proprietary model that takes into account all the dynamical(tm) data.

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The GFS, Para, CMC, and ECMWF all show a wave moving E/NE out of the texas/arkansas area mid-late next week. It's even there on the JMA and NAVGEM and ICON. For 8 days out its something worth looking at... looking for crumbs here lol

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Great atmospheric parameters, coldest point in the year, the most common time these storms show themselves near day 8.  I honestly don't know what possibly could go wrong. Other then those 10,000 other things.

 

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29 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Euro is trying hard to make it blue day 8

 

Instead of day 10 we have a day 8 threat on the Euro. That is actually something substantial to take with more cautious optimism. If it continues to get closer as it has been for a couple days we may be in legit tracking business in the MR thread! I'm hopeful on this one....the tellies say this is real.

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22 minutes ago, Ji said:

seems like the models with high pressure are giving us the blue.....even though it isnt the best CAD ever.

Guidance picks up CAD better as we get closer. Especially under a block with 50/50 confluence. 

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