• Member Statistics

    16,260
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    PoZitron20
    Newest Member
    PoZitron20
    Joined
yoda

January Long Range Disco Thread

Recommended Posts

Since other thread was nearing 2500 posts, new thread been give.  

12z EURO was a nice run to see... and with JMA onboard :lmao: and GFS close by with its h5 progression... could we be talking about some snow early next week for the WxUSAF storm?

  • Like 7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Euro does indeed nuke us next week but there is no real cold air within 100s of miles, gonna be dicey if it plays out like that. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Euro does indeed nuke us next week but there is no real cold air within 100s of miles, gonna be dicey if it plays out like that. 

Define "real cold air"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Define "real cold air"

At the peak of the storm (00z Wed) you'd have to go to like I81 or State College to find temps at or below 32 while it's in the mid 30s in immediate DC metro.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Work forced me to miss the Euro run. But oh man. Thing is the GFS was actually pretty close to the same deal. Just missed by a little bit. Gonna be a fun week of tracking. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said:

At the peak of the storm (00z Wed) you'd have to go to like I81 or State College to find temps at or below 32 while it's in the mid 30s in immediate DC metro.

Too early to worry about that imo. Euro probably a bit over phased. Man is that a sweet kink in the H5 pattern on euro and JMA. I’d take this everyday over suppressed weak waves 

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Wentzadelphia said:

Too early to worry about that imo. Euro probably a bit over phased. Man is that a sweet kink in the H5 pattern on euro and JMA. I’d take this everyday over suppressed weak waves 

I wouldn't say I'm worried, I'm happy to see a modeled storm that doesn't miss us.  I'm just being cautious because with those temps it's better not to go in with huge expectations (at least where I live in urban heat island hell).  

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, DCTeacherman said:

I wouldn't say I'm worried, I'm happy to see a modeled storm that doesn't miss us.  I'm just being cautious because with those temps it's better not to go in with huge expectations (at least where I live in urban heat island hell).  

This far out - thermals are the least concern. I think we should all be looking at the H5 pattern and how it matches or doesn't match with the surface result. Inside of 120 we can start sweating thermals. Not saying we won't have temp issues - but remember - the best storms usually do have their share of mixing and thermal problems. We'll see. Too early for now. 

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 2
  • Weenie 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Haven’t dug into the individual members but certainly a signal on this panel for a coastal.  Get that MSLP deeper and more west but since this is 7 days out, this is a good signal.

image.thumb.png.789a2944d2eff2048bf8db1b52d315cb.png

and this one

image.thumb.png.fbb3d418b9dee4c1048babb2ae4138a8.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

WRT to 12z EPS, the mean/individual members are not as wound up as the OP. It would argue all snow for everyone north of St. Mary's city. Hope we see the GFS start to catch on.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I dont think anyone mentioned it in the other thread. But the UKIE looks good at 144. Already starting to phase. Would have been a nice storm IMO. 

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I dont think anyone mentioned it in the other thread. But the UKIE looks good at 144. Already starting to phase. Would have been a nice storm IMO. 

But Ji said it’s never been right

  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

WRT to 12z EPS, the mean/individual members are not as wound up as the OP. It would argue all snow for everyone north of St. Mary's city. Hope we see the GFS start to catch on.

common man you know the EPS mean wil never be as wound up as the OP especially that far out

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
48 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Haven’t dug into the individual members but certainly a signal on this panel for a coastal.  Get that MSLP deeper and more west but since this is 7 days out, this is a good signal.

image.thumb.png.789a2944d2eff2048bf8db1b52d315cb.png

and this one

image.thumb.png.fbb3d418b9dee4c1048babb2ae4138a8.png

Looks good. Would love to see the individual members for 12z ens 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

Looks good. Would love to see the individual members for 12z ens 

About 35 are whiffs for early next week.  The other 15 are acceptable.  

0D7D38F6-A9B0-4BD4-ADE9-67B41F1EC908.png

46691266-5BC4-4E4D-9B0D-EE6974CD5606.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

About 35 are whiffs for early next week.  The other 15 are acceptable.  

0D7D38F6-A9B0-4BD4-ADE9-67B41F1EC908.png

46691266-5BC4-4E4D-9B0D-EE6974CD5606.png

Thanks. Yea, so op is not really supported all that much. Still good to see a potential window though

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

Thanks. Yea, so op is not really supported all that much. Still good to see a potential window though

I think it’s fairly supported at this range but there’s still a lot of spread because we are a week out.  It does seem to be on the extreme edge of the solutions though.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

Thanks. Yea, so op is not really supported all that much. Still good to see a potential window though

You're looking at the wrong thing for "support" at that range.  This looks VERY supportive.  

supportive.thumb.png.be64c67400071edf62ae0ab19b1f7fe4.png

  • Like 10
  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You're looking at the wrong thing for "support" at that range.  This looks VERY supportive.  

supportive.thumb.png.be64c67400071edf62ae0ab19b1f7fe4.png

Idk but this seems like 2018 to me. :guitar:

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.