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January Long Range Disco Thread


yoda
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13 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

GEFS are pretty adamant that the coldest anoms in the NH shift to NA in the LR.  Not saying its good or bad for snow prospects but its impressive to see how quick the extreme cold fades across east Asia and forms in NA.  Cross polar flow stole it right out from under them....

The Mongolian Ji must be lamenting the loss.  

05D29D4B-BBC0-4D1B-B3C8-9F14A6FCFE7F.jpeg

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Just now, Chris78 said:

Meh. Not sure that helps our snow chances.  I'd rather have just cold enough  than "vodka cold ".

It’s probably not vodka.  Looks cold but not silly cold.  It seems like we need almost everything right to get snow.  I don’t remember it being this hard in the past but maybe I’m forgetting.  

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25 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

It’s probably not vodka.  Looks cold but not silly cold.  It seems like we need almost everything right to get snow.  I don’t remember it being this hard in the past but maybe I’m forgetting.  

Seems like we need to check the box on 10 things for us to snow. And if we are missing 1 of those items  then it's no snow for you lol.

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1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

Seems like we need to check the box on 10 things for us to snow. And if we are missing 1 of those items  then it's no snow for you lol.

-NAO but not too negative

cold but not too cold

PNA ridge precisely located over a two block radius of Boise, ID

 

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Ed was on this first, now  Accu- weather and others going crazy.  Time will tell.  

So things have happened quicker than I expected. Was also expecting minimal westerly flush down but this is greater than expected. When this is complete I expect another trop blocking response. Keeping an eye on possible split to reinforce this.
 
 
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48 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

The GEFS looks pretty freakin cold at the end of the run.  Incoming vodka it appears

Yeah I'm wondering if we actually enter a clipper pattern (after years without one) under the block/ridge for a bit with some overunning events ejecting out of the SW undercutting the ridge off the W Coast as the blocking relaxes. We've had those patterns before and I have a suspicion we may ne headed that route when the cold finally begins to enter the US after the 15th.

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2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

No he will post the real one soon..Gotcha!.....Will?  Anyone?  Bueller?

Mean snow maps give me a sense if the pattern has any potential, no more, no less.  Truthfully, I have learned more than five days out don’t look at anything but pattern.  Everyone in here is smart enough to know that you should not take one run of any model and take it as gospel.  Here, enjoy the 12Z EURO for another 4 hours...

6EFC57F2-E2B7-4276-BCA0-E13001B8456F.png

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@psuhoffman

 

Psu Interestig comments by Anthony here wondering what to make of it.

If forcing shifts later in the month of January especially with the latest forecast that show cold over the Eastern United States do you care to elaborate on what your feelings are regarding the progression of forcing in the West Pac. 

Replying to
I've been thinking about preseason/years like 88-89 showing up. Then I see the pattern ahead, etc. & tropical forcing reorganizing to Maritimes for Feb. You have to wonder if we see a rapid flip to very cold in W-C US. This would be a lot easier if polar state was more 1980s like
 
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11 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

HH Eps for the weekend system has the MC Hammer sw that rotates around the 50/50 much weaker and further north at 84 hr . Something to watch for any further trending at 0z and 6z tomorrow.  

Are you and I the only ones who think this has a shot? The changes on the gfs were significant

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For anybody that thinks looking at a snow map from the gfs has any merit consider this ... on the 15th the gfs has rain in western Pa and ne Ohio with thickness under 528 and 850’s around -10 in January. Sign on the dotted line if you think that bullshit is happening. 

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1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

Probably not.. plenty of people who remain silent lol. Honestly I think DC and esp S.Md ,eastern shore definitely still in play . Even in mby there's a sliver of hope.  Timing has slowed.  It's a early Sat system on much guidance.  We need positive changes to continue tomorrow though . 

We need that southern energy to slow down a little, amp a little more, get the whirlpool in the ne to lift out just a tad and the hammer to keep weakening. Get those, I know it’s a lot, and this could come up. You can see it wants to but when it hits that confluence it just goes. It also weakens. 

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I thought the NAM actually looked promising early on.  ULL further north, less confluence and appeared to be a north shift. Then it just gets its face shoved in the sand by the vort coming down from the north.  Cant wait until we can extrapolate for the 1/11 threat.

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