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MN Transplant

December 16/17 Winter Event

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9 minutes ago, Kleimax said:

The NWS has 12-18 inches for me in Owings mills in the WSW... not seeing how that’s possible. Even the updated snowfall map of 8-12 doesn’t seem likely. 

What about news channel 8?

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In all seriousness though if there ever was a storm for novice chasers, this is it. If this crazy gradient verifies, those of us in the coastal plain who have never chased have a rare opportunity to chase from cold rain to a foot of snow and be back before our boss notices we left. :D

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4 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

 

If your windshield washer fluid froze at 30 degrees (or even 0 degrees, for that matter), it's not windshield washer fluid. 

I agree. Usually I use the orange Rain-X stuff and it's great. This is stuff the dealer put in. It's crap.

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45 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Cold air stuck in the Valley. Blue ridge is our friend in this instance. But with the track being shown i will be surprised if we don't mix some even here. 

i don’t see it—every model has strong frontogenesis over us to drive up our snow totals versus having to hope for the deformation band snows.

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5 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

In all seriousness though if there ever was a storm for novice chasers, this is it. If this crazy gradient verifies, those of us in the coastal plain who have never chased have a rare opportunity to chase from cold rain to a foot of snow and be back before our boss notices we left. :D

Yeah I'd be tempted to do my 33-mile mini chase to Greenbrier Park off I-70 but man even there is looking dodgy now. 

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3 minutes ago, Warm Nose said:

This is a cold rain 'near miss' and/or sleet fest for most here. Fun while it lasted ... it follows a similar pattern, we should be used to it by now.

i wouldnt give up yet. Here is the NAM by 21z before the changeover. namconus_asnow_neus_12.png

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2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

The 12k is pretty ugly. Is the I-81 corridor still getting their HECS? LOL

At least down this way back to back runs of some pretty nasty ice accretion. .60” or higher. Even half of that would not be good down this way. 

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Just now, clskinsfan said:

Are you gonna see a flake? LOL

At this rate maybe just a few to start and then sleet and dryslot/drizzle. The models are really showing a dryslot here with the last few runs. This storm sure fell apart. NAM drives precip up to my place in Randolph now, very different from prior good runs here. 

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1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

At this rate maybe just a few to start and then sleet and dryslot/drizzle. The models are really showing a dryslot here with the last few runs. This storm sure fell apart. NAM drives precip up to my place in Randolph now, very different from prior good runs here. 

I wouldn't mind thump --> mix --> rain --> dryslot.  It's better than hours and hours of heavy rain at 35 degrees.  

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3 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

I wouldn't mind thump --> mix --> rain --> dryslot.  It's better than hours and hours of heavy rain at 35 degrees.  

Yeah, the NAM unfortunately shows more mixing out toward I-81, but it seems to be depicting more sleet than rain in DC with the temp not getting much above 32-33.

 

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12 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

I agree. Usually I use the orange Rain-X stuff and it's great. This is stuff the dealer put in. It's crap.

Stealership strikes again

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The 3km is quite the disaster all the way up to New York - not a single flake in DC, nobody east of 81 gets more than 5 inches, Philly gets 3 and NYC like 5.

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3k NAM doesn't change anyone west of I-95 over to rain it seems, but it has some horrendous amounts of freezing rain and ice compared to last run. 

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1 minute ago, chris21 said:

Yeah, the NAM unfortunately shows more mixing out toward I-81, but it seems to be depicting more sleet than rain in DC with the temp not getting much above 32-33.

 

I'm actually kind of excited for this storm.  Give me a few hours of steady/heavy snow during the day tomorrow then whatever happens is gravy.  Dry slot would be ideal so maybe the ground is still white when it gets cold after the storm.  This is a nice way to pad stats if we can do 1-3 or 2-4 on the WAA.  

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1 minute ago, TL97 said:

The 3km is quite the disaster all the way up to New York - not a single flake in DC, nobody east of 81 gets more than 5 inches, Philly gets 3 and NYC like 5.

tenor.gif

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I said a while ago a lack of precip could be an issue even for those with good temps and was told the models all showed “plenty of liquid” and “this thing is juiced.” LOL

As predicted, those with decent temps will waste precious time with light rates and spitting snow. That dry slot is massive. 

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