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December 16/17 Winter Event


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2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

GFS is slightly better. The more wrapped up look is slowly coming back. Do not give up folks.

Exactly! I always love watching people stream out of the stadium when their team is losing...and then they miss the greatest comeback in team history. Hey, at least you can claim you beat the traffic out right!? :lol:

I feel a few more small positive changes might be coming...

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3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I have tropical tidbits up and the 0 degree isotherm at 850 straddles I-95 and I-95 never gets above -4 at 700mb which would imply rimmed snow or ice pellets. It isn't shoved west like 00z or 06z. This is definitely an improvement. I REALLY hope the NAM is wrong, but it's scored some big coups on thermals in the past. 

Joe, need your thoughts on the GFS. Do you think h7 & h85 closing off has anything to do with the better outcomes on 12z. Tracks are right over us so not ideal, but can't hurt to have it stack a bit? 

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9 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

I think the dismissals of the high last night are looking incorrect. DC built rapidly and steadily overnight and is continuing. 1028 here  right now on a high that is forecasted to be 1032-1036 1000 miles to our north is an excellent  showing down here at this time 

 

 

 

Agreed. Temps were forecasted to be 3-4 degrees higher in Westminster at this time. Holding at 33 with STRONG sun. 

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3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

It has a lot to do with the evolution and where the snow comes from. There isn't much dependency on the backend stuff for us either, it's more WAA driven and enhanced by the low being relatively near before we dry-slot. 

That back end has slowly started to come back though. If it will keep wrapping up there will be a back end

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1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

Joe, need your thoughts on the GFS. Do you think h7 & h85 closing off has anything to do with the better outcomes on 12z. Tracks are right over us so not ideal, but can't hurt to have it stack a bit? 

Yes absolutely. We need the coastal to form and cut off the SE winds at 850 as soon as possible. The earlier we do that, the more people win. Another 50 mile pump east would help too.

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Just now, lpaschall said:

Agreed. Temps were forecasted to be 3-4 degrees higher in Westminster at this time. Holding at 33 with STRONG sun. 

I saw yesterday you are off Lucabaugh right? Good to see we have another member of the Westminster/Carroll crew here in the forum. Looking for my first good snow since moving up here 2 years ago. 

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Damn I’m glad my paycheck doesn’t ride on this forecast. 

Gfs is definitely an improvement over 6z with the WAA thump. 0z sounding for MBY is isothermal JUST below freezing from 750-950mb. Then above below that. Verbatim that’s probably wet snow that’s very rate dependent. But got to believe there will be a more noticeable warm layer aloft like the NAM shows. So still thinking quite a bit of sleet. Staying all frozen with that low track would be pretty miraculous. 

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

Damn I’m glad my paycheck doesn’t ride on this forecast. 

Gfs is definitely an improvement over 6z with the WAA thump. 0z sounding for MBY is isothermal JUST below freezing from 750-950mb. Then above below that. Verbatim that’s probably wet snow that’s very rate dependent. But got to believe there will be a more noticeable warm layer aloft like the NAM shows. So still thinking quite a bit of sleet. Staying all frozen with that low track would be pretty miraculous. 

Yea the GFS saves I-95 and points west. I really hope this is the start of a last minute trend for the better.

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2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

That back end has slowly started to come back though. If it will keep wrapping up there will be a back end

Agreed, there's not a primary present but if you see what I just said to Joe and he confirmed is we want to see this thing close off in the ML's and have the winds not vector out of the SE pumping in the WAA for the entirely of the low's track to our latitude. 

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2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

I saw yesterday you are off Lucabaugh right? Good to see we have another member of the Westminster/Carroll crew here in the forum. Looking for my first good snow since moving up here 2 years ago. 

Yep. I have not used my snowblower in 2 yeas. Lived in Westminster for about 15 years and have had some really good winters.

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6 minutes ago, lpaschall said:

Agreed. Temps were forecasted to be 3-4 degrees higher in Westminster at this time. Holding at 33 with STRONG sun. 

It's a frigid 40 at DCA right now at 11am.  We will blow past the forecast high of 42. Yes, there is a H up north. Just with a very unimpressive airmass here. Folks are free to live and die by each model wobble but we have seen this movie before. Sure, it will start frozen but one of those scenarios will a little white on the grass in the AM slowly disappears as you go inside the beltway to cartoppers and then inside DC itself a little slush on the windshields. Then a very quick changeover and that is that. The immediate DC metro is meh at best.

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2 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said:

WB

 

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We gotta be smart about these maps. We all know they aren’t to be taken verbatim but Baltimore city isn’t getting 8” and glen Burnie gets 3-4” when they have the same elevation. That rate of difference in snow totals will be elevation based. 

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