BristowWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: For us western guys. Yeah. Copy. I saw DCTeacherman posted most of our sub. actually it is better. I was driving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: GFS is slightly better. The more wrapped up look is slowly coming back. Do not give up folks. Exactly! I always love watching people stream out of the stadium when their team is losing...and then they miss the greatest comeback in team history. Hey, at least you can claim you beat the traffic out right!? I feel a few more small positive changes might be coming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I went from 4.5" to 10.5" in Germantown on this run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I have tropical tidbits up and the 0 degree isotherm at 850 straddles I-95 and I-95 never gets above -4 at 700mb which would imply rimmed snow or ice pellets. It isn't shoved west like 00z or 06z. This is definitely an improvement. I REALLY hope the NAM is wrong, but it's scored some big coups on thermals in the past. Joe, need your thoughts on the GFS. Do you think h7 & h85 closing off has anything to do with the better outcomes on 12z. Tracks are right over us so not ideal, but can't hurt to have it stack a bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 9 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: I think the dismissals of the high last night are looking incorrect. DC built rapidly and steadily overnight and is continuing. 1028 here right now on a high that is forecasted to be 1032-1036 1000 miles to our north is an excellent showing down here at this time Agreed. Temps were forecasted to be 3-4 degrees higher in Westminster at this time. Holding at 33 with STRONG sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: It has a lot to do with the evolution and where the snow comes from. There isn't much dependency on the backend stuff for us either, it's more WAA driven and enhanced by the low being relatively near before we dry-slot. That back end has slowly started to come back though. If it will keep wrapping up there will be a back end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: Joe, need your thoughts on the GFS. Do you think h7 & h85 closing off has anything to do with the better outcomes on 12z. Tracks are right over us so not ideal, but can't hurt to have it stack a bit? Yes absolutely. We need the coastal to form and cut off the SE winds at 850 as soon as possible. The earlier we do that, the more people win. Another 50 mile pump east would help too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Not a bad trend... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 The trend is our friend....i will go down with the ship. I’m a lifelong Orioles fan 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, lpaschall said: Agreed. Temps were forecasted to be 3-4 degrees higher in Westminster at this time. Holding at 33 with STRONG sun. I saw yesterday you are off Lucabaugh right? Good to see we have another member of the Westminster/Carroll crew here in the forum. Looking for my first good snow since moving up here 2 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Damn I’m glad my paycheck doesn’t ride on this forecast. Gfs is definitely an improvement over 6z with the WAA thump. 0z sounding for MBY is isothermal JUST below freezing from 750-950mb. Then above below that. Verbatim that’s probably wet snow that’s very rate dependent. But got to believe there will be a more noticeable warm layer aloft like the NAM shows. So still thinking quite a bit of sleet. Staying all frozen with that low track would be pretty miraculous. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, WxUSAF said: Damn I’m glad my paycheck doesn’t ride on this forecast. Gfs is definitely an improvement over 6z with the WAA thump. 0z sounding for MBY is isothermal JUST below freezing from 750-950mb. Then above below that. Verbatim that’s probably wet snow that’s very rate dependent. But got to believe there will be a more noticeable warm layer aloft like the NAM shows. So still thinking quite a bit of sleet. Staying all frozen with that low track would be pretty miraculous. Yea the GFS saves I-95 and points west. I really hope this is the start of a last minute trend for the better. 7 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That back end has slowly started to come back though. If it will keep wrapping up there will be a back end Agreed, there's not a primary present but if you see what I just said to Joe and he confirmed is we want to see this thing close off in the ML's and have the winds not vector out of the SE pumping in the WAA for the entirely of the low's track to our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: I saw yesterday you are off Lucabaugh right? Good to see we have another member of the Westminster/Carroll crew here in the forum. Looking for my first good snow since moving up here 2 years ago. Yep. I have not used my snowblower in 2 yeas. Lived in Westminster for about 15 years and have had some really good winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Does GFS ever even turn us to plain rain on the western side of the beltway? Haven’t looked at the soundings but from precip type maps looks like mostly frozen (sleet)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 24 hours is a long time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 All the crappy snow maps in the last few pages of the thread - maybe someone throw up the GFS life preserver snow map? Mobile and can't see it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: Does GFS ever even turn us to plain rain on the western side of the beltway? Haven’t looked at the soundings but from precip type maps looks like mostly frozen (sleet)? yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I would put more weight at this point on the mesoscale models in terms of thermals, etc...great to see GFS take a step forward but that’s the only caution I’d throw out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 15 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Significantly? Looks like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 12Z better for most in the forum than 6Z, no? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 In 2017 GFS' had the snow sleet line 50 miles too far SE and it underdid the warm layer by about 4C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said: All the crappy snow maps in the last few pages of the thread - maybe someone throw up the GFS life preserver snow map? Mobile and can't see it right now. WB 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: yes Ok, I was using WB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, WesternFringe said: 12Z better for most in the forum than 6Z, no? LOL that takes me from 3 to 10 inches. Not buying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I don’t hate the upslope snow showers continuing through Friday for Garrett County on the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yea the GFS saves I-95 and points west. I really hope this is the start of a last minute trend for the better. Is that something we do? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, lpaschall said: Agreed. Temps were forecasted to be 3-4 degrees higher in Westminster at this time. Holding at 33 with STRONG sun. It's a frigid 40 at DCA right now at 11am. We will blow past the forecast high of 42. Yes, there is a H up north. Just with a very unimpressive airmass here. Folks are free to live and die by each model wobble but we have seen this movie before. Sure, it will start frozen but one of those scenarios will a little white on the grass in the AM slowly disappears as you go inside the beltway to cartoppers and then inside DC itself a little slush on the windshields. Then a very quick changeover and that is that. The immediate DC metro is meh at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, catoctin wx said: Is that something we do? Almost never so I'm not expecting it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said: WB We gotta be smart about these maps. We all know they aren’t to be taken verbatim but Baltimore city isn’t getting 8” and glen Burnie gets 3-4” when they have the same elevation. That rate of difference in snow totals will be elevation based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts