CIK62 Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 The next 8 dys are averaging 65degs. Make it 60degs., or about -8. 55*!!!(50%RH) here at 6am, clear of clouds-but not really clear due to smoke from West Coasts fires? 60* by 10am. 63* by Noon. GFS remains w/o rain around here for 8 days at least. It probably would take more than the last 10 runs added together, to reach the normal 2.1" for a 16 day period. The Tropics: 19N 30W, 14N 46W, 37N 61W, 28.3N 88.2W(I always get where I am going). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 Good Tuesday morning everyone: Sally fringe rain, closest pass may be delayed til Fri night-Saturday? and most 00z/15 models cut the northern fringe below our NYC area forum. However, NAEFS/EPS still give us a chance though with a slight southward trend since yesterday at this time. SMOKE: That I think is our primary visual interest the next 3 days. No change form the HRRR modeled heavy concentrations graphics posted last evening, near 15000 feet today. Have added the 1000 ft concentration for 06z/Thursday, implying a small concentration of the smoke may be getting closer to ground level in parts of the northeast during Thursday? Also added the vertical concentration for that time, which keeps us in the smoke plume, probably through the day Thursday. Finally, a cross section, for 06z Thursday near NYC, showing that most of the smoke is above 5000 feet. NAEFS (no image due to D10 uncertainty) vicinity the 25th: appears a bit QPF active off the east coast. 653A/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 Could be the first September under 70° in NYC since 2014. A +2 in September for NYC is 70°. So anything below that will do it. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 2020 72.8 16 2019 70.4 0 2018 70.7 0 2017 70.5 0 2016 71.8 0 2015 74.5 0 2014 69.7 0 2013 67.9 0 2012 68.8 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 50 and it feels like September Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 45; first 40s of the fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 53 for the low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 46 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 Quite chilly am. Mostly cloudy/hazy, breezy 51. First 50s went way down to near 50. Cooler than I excpected. Some upper 40s made it down to just about the westchester Bx line. Had to go searching for a hoodie. Cant remember last time I wore a long sleeve shirt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 12 minutes ago, dWave said: Quite chilly am. Mostly cloudy/hazy, breezy 51. First 50s went way down to near 50. Cooler than I excpected. Some upper 40s made it down to just about the westchester Bx line. Had to go searching for a hoodie. Cant remember last time I wore a long sleeve shirt. Earliest first 40s of the season at HPN since 2014. First/Last Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Difference Minimum 05-13 (2011) 09-09 (2013) 97 Mean 05-30 09-20 113 Maximum 06-12 (2018) 10-12 (2018) 126 2019 06-04 (2019) 47 09-19 (2019) 43 106 2018 06-12 (2018) 49 10-12 (2018) 47 121 2017 06-09 (2017) 47 09-29 (2017) 47 111 2016 05-21 (2016) 48 09-25 (2016) 44 126 2015 06-02 (2015) 48 09-27 (2015) 47 116 2014 06-01 (2014) 48 09-14 (2014) 48 104 2013 05-28 (2013) 49 09-09 (2013) 49 103 2012 06-05 (2012) 49 09-11 (2012) 46 97 2011 05-13 (2011) 48 09-16 (2011) 48 125 2010 05-20 (2010) 49 09-16 (2010) 47 118 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 53 for a low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 Two photos of this morning’s smoky sunrise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 51.4 in Syosset & 52.3 in Muttontown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 Morning thoughts... This morning saw some of the coolest readings so far this season. Low temperatures included: Allentown: 44° Boston: 49° Bridgeport: 50° Islip: 53° New York City: 54° Newark: 51° Philadelphia: 52° Poughkeepsie: 43° White Plains: 45° Today will be sunny but brisk. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s in much of the region to perhaps lower 70s in a few areas. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 68° Newark: 70° Philadelphia: 70° Much of the week will feel like early autumn. An even colder air mass could arrive late in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 58 right now in Brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 53 this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 wore my jacket this morning first time here in the city since june it was chilly out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 53 this morning, a shock to the system. High of 79 yesterday, would’ve been in the 80’s if not for the smoke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 Long period swells from Patrica worked their magic and caused washovers and erosion. Long period swells (over 12 seconds) are extremely energetic and surge up and over the beach. I had the pleasure of riding those swells last night and it was a memorable session at Gilgo beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 Was down at 45 earlier today between 345 and 4AM this morning. Warm it up Wed and Thu before next cold front brings the coolest air since (today) starting Sat (9/19) through next Tues (9/22). Looks like moderation and then a much warmer close to the month. Also guidance may look wetter come Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARyan Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Two photos of this morning’s smoky sunrise. That's a crazy good shot! What an eerie world we're living in now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 15, 2020 Author Share Posted September 15, 2020 12 hours ago, forkyfork said: @wdrag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 45 minutes ago, ARyan said: That's a crazy good shot! What an eerie world we're living in now. Thanks. It is a most unusual time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Two photos of this morning’s smoky sunrise. maybe billions of years from now Jupiter will be headed right towards the earth and it will look like that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 Much further west compared to 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 24 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Much further west compared to 0z What storm is that? Something that forms later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 Only made it to 65 so far today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 12z NAEFS is hardening the northern fringe of qpf in our NYC forum, despite most models less than 0.1". 12z GEFS/EPS both have 0.1" to central NJ - s coast of LI..the EPS about 12 hours slower than the fast 12z/15 GEFS. The NAEFS 52 member ensemble must have a high bias in some of it's members (plenty of variability is color coded) but has the 0.4" qpf on successive cycles thru NNJ to the N of LI. I know many on this forum do not think much of the GGEM. I do think it's good and to enjoy a cyclonic precip event (non-convective), the GGEM must be on board- I've very seldom seen the GGEM dry and an event occur (lets say within 72 hours). So, for the sake of a conservative approach...we'll expect the NAEFS to be wrong. Just the same I'm posting the 00z/12z cycles 24 hr qpf ending 8PM Friday and we'll see if it had any idea of the northern fringe qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 Reviewing week two outlook as suggested by the NAEFS week 2 guidance posted 8/30. Have added the QPF for week two... (only 1 event the 9th-11th with the second Sun-Mon 13th-14th being a null event)), and the week two national average temp which showed the trough axis was actually further west than implied ~Aug 30. Still the guidance was good at opening up east coast possibilities of more normal rainfall and central USA cooler than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 15, 2020 Author Share Posted September 15, 2020 20 minutes ago, wdrag said: Reviewing week two outlook as suggested by the NAEFS week 2 guidance posted 8/30. Have added the QPF for week two... (only 1 event the 9th-11th with the second Sun-Mon 13th-14th being a null event)), and the week two national average temp which showed the trough axis was actually further west than implied ~Aug 30. Still the guidance was good at opening up east coast possibilities of more normal rainfall and central USA cooler than normal. how are the southward moving echoes i posted an example of anomalous propagation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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