Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    19,022
    Total Members
    49,013
    Most Online
    loganboehmewx
    Newest Member
    loganboehmewx
    Joined

August 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

Rtd208

By Rtd208,
in New York City Metro

Recommended Posts

wdrag

wdrag

Posted
Posted

Good Thursday morning to all, 

Refreshingly cool mornings. Been fun.  Back to heat soon... "could" be 6 day heat wave beginning Saturday parts of ne NJ, lower Hud Valley, interior w CT portions of our forum. Marginal near 90F temps this weekend and interruptions by thunderstorms are possible Sunday-Tuesday, Thursday. Do think that ~95F heat likely for a day or so, probably restricted to next Wednesday or Thursday. HI near 100 on a couple of days, for now again, next Wed or Thu.

Convection: still small chancey WAA convection Friday night-Saturday, mainly NJ. 

Potential Topic is Sunday: Combination of EC modeled CAPE over 2000J, KI well up in the 30s, PWAT near 1.8", 15-25KT 700MB westerly flow, an approaching weakening 500MB short wave having lifted newd from the lower Miss Valley and something I missed yesterday, is an unexpectedly strong upper wind field; should allow for strong thunderstorms (a couple of episodes possible) Noon-10PM.  Best chance for pockets 2-3" of gusty storms seems to initially be NJ, but may shift northward to  se NYS-CT late in the day-evening. Also, I can see isolated SVR and an eventual marginal risk by SPC down here in the NYC forum.  No topic at this time for two reasons: Not sure we can squeeze 4" in 1 or 2 locations-for now probably not, and severe is not a lock since wind fields marginal. Still, am pretty sure golf and other outdoor activity will be interrupted by Tstorms sometime during the afternoon. 

Monday: a bit drier dew points but a surface trough and still sizable 1500+J CAPE and KI decent, should allow for isolated or scattered gusty thunderstorms.

Tuesday: I think conditions may be a bit more favorable for scattered afternoon thunderstorms but as of now...Sunday afternoon-evening is when I think the most important risk day, prior to the probable Thursday ish CFP which has less CAPE but the highest KI ribbon of the week, in addition to probably the hottest airmass of the week.

A note: Lower dew points on Wednesday the 26th along with warmer 500MB temps should preclude thunder from happening in our NYC forum area on Wednesday. Just hot.

Finally: the tropics. Not posting to the tropic page since they have it covered and am only looking on possible impacts here.  Not guaranteed, since tracking is part of the problem,  that two tropical systems will affect the Gulf Coast next week (Laura could still miss east of the Gulf Coast).  For our area, beginning Friday the 28th onward, I could see some sort of impact here. For now lets it keep it to some moisture since the general flow across the northern USA is westerly tending to shunt systems east or east northeast at our threat latitude (north of 35N). The upper level jet across NNE/Nova Scotia becomes favorable (RRQ). Long WAYS to go on this but it's not the same as ISAIAS. As of now, there is a much greater chance for a miss to the southeast of us, than the more favored trough-ridge pattern of the August 4. 810A/20

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
SACRUS

SACRUS

Posted
Posted

68 off a low of 52 last night coolest in a while.  Today splendid day sunny and low 80s / low humdity.  Lows again tonight 50s inland.  Friday starts what should be a 9 day warm-up above to much above normal with potential record heat lumped in for a 2 day period. By Saturday the warmer spots will see 90s again after a 9 day reprieve.  Sunday pending on storms and associated clouds should get more 90s.    Heat dome still standing but trough pushing into the Pacific northwest will allow some weakness and eventual push east into the plains and with it the incrediblly strong heat will spill east into the plains, GL, MW and our area  within 5 - 6 days,

Mon (8/24) - Tue (8/25) : more 90s especially for the warmer spots but becoming more widespread as 850MB temps increase to >16c.  By Wed (8/26) - Fri (8/28) potential record heat with only clouds or tropical effects hindering upper 90s to above.    By next weekend (8/29) trough pushes into the region.  Beyond there WAR remains southeast of the region flexing west at times.  Rockies ridge boppping between AZ and KS.   Looking overall warm into the end of the month.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
SACRUS

SACRUS

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

I will confidently take the under on that. It would have to be above 98 for that to happen and I don't see anything like that in the forecast.

I would too, but potential exists with some guidance showing 850MB temps >18c between Wed and Fri.  Friday may be muddied up by tropical moisture.  Either way a hot week  looks likely starting this weekend before the next break towards next weekend (8/30/31)

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Stormlover74

Stormlover74

Posted
Posted

We have confirmed that an EF0 tornado touched down yesterday morning, August 19, just before 10AM in the Lincroft section of Middletown Township, NJ. See the Public Information Statement for more. https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202008201508-KPHI-NOUS41-PNSPHI #NJwx 

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 08/19/20 TORNADO EVENT...

.LINCROFT TORNADO...

START LOCATION...LINCROFT IN MIDDLETOWN TOWNSHIP, MONMOUTH COUNTY, NJ
END LOCATION...LINCROFT IN MIDDLETOWN TOWNSHIP, MONMOUTH COUNTY, NJ
DATE...AUGUST 19, 2020
ESTIMATED TIME...9:57 TO 9:59 AM EDT
MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF0
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...80 MPH
MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...70 YARDS
PATH LENGTH...1.21 MILES
BEGINNING LAT/LON...40.3220/-74.1283
ENDING LAT/LON...40.3179/-74.1061
* FATALITIES...0
* INJURIES...0

...SUMMARY...
A TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN ON A BASEBALL FIELD ON THE CAMPUS OF 
BROOKDALE COMMUNITY COLLEGE IN THE LINCROFT SECTION OF MIDDLETOWN 
TOWNSHIP IN MONMOUTH COUNTY, NEW JERSEY. IT TOSSED A SET OF METAL 
BLEACHERS ADJACENT TO THE FIELD, THEN CROSSED OVER PHALANX ROAD INTO 
A RESIDENTIAL AREA, WITH NUMEROUS TREES SUSTAINING DAMAGE ON AND 
AROUND HICKORY LANE. TREE DAMAGE MAINLY CONSISTED OF BROKEN LIMBS 
AND THE SNAPPING OF SOME TREES NEAR THEIR TOPS. AT LEAST ONE TREE 
WAS ALSO UPROOTED IN THIS AREA. THE TORNADO CONTINUED A LITTLE SOUTH 
OF DUE EAST AND PASSED NEAR THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE SWIMMING 
RIVER RESERVOIR, CAUSING ADDITIONAL TREE DAMAGE. THE TORNADO THEN 
ENTERED ANOTHER RESIDENTIAL AREA NEAR SWIMMING RIVER ROAD AND 
NORMANDY ROAD, PRODUCING A CONTINUED PATH OF DAMAGED TREES. THE 
TORNADO LIFTED AS IT ENTERED THE RIVERDALE WEST PARK, WHERE TREE 
DAMAGE WAS NO LONGER OBSERVED. THE TORNADO DID NOT APPEAR TO CAUSE 
ANY DIRECT STRUCTURAL DAMAGE, THOUGH A COUPLE OF HOMES SUSTAINED 
DAMAGE FROM FALLING TREE DEBRIS. THE DEGREE OF DAMAGE IS CONSISTENT 
WITH AN EF0 TORNADO WITH ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 80 MPH AND A 
CONTINUOUS, RELATIVELY NARROW PATH OF AROUND 70 YARDS IN WIDTH. 
THANKFULLY, NO INJURIES OCCURRED AS A RESULT OF THIS TORNADO.  

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WOULD LIKE TO THANK THE MONMOUTH COUNTY 
OFFICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT, NEW JERSEY STATE POLICE, AND LOCAL 
OFFICIALS WITH MIDDLETOWN TOWNSHIP FOR THEIR ASSISTANCE IN THIS 
SURVEY. THESE CONCLUSIONS ARE PRELIMINARY AND ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
SHOULD ADDITIONAL INFORMATION COME TO OUR ATTENTION.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

NYC has had to wait longer for its first 50s after a late summer cold front. It used to be common for the first 50s to arrive during August. But now more and more years don’t get the first 50s until September. NYC reached the monthly low so far of 62° today.

First/Last Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Difference
Minimum 06-09 (2017) 08-15 (2013) 56
Mean 06-16 09-06 81
Maximum 06-27 (2015) 09-17 (2016) 94
2019 06-14 (2019) 58 09-06 (2019) 58 83
2018 06-12 (2018) 57 09-09 (2018) 55 88
2017 06-09 (2017) 53 09-01 (2017) 55 83
2016 06-14 (2016) 58 09-17 (2016) 59 94
2015 06-27 (2015) 58 09-14 (2015) 59 78
2014 06-15 (2014) 59 09-13 (2014) 58 89
2013 06-19 (2013) 59 08-15 (2013) 59 56
2012 06-26 (2012) 58 09-10 (2012) 58 75
2011 06-15 (2011) 56 08-29 (2011) 59 74
2010 06-11 (2010) 58 09-11 (2010) 59 91

 

First/Last Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Difference
Minimum 06-12 (2006) 08-07 (2004) 16
Mean 06-27 08-25 58
Maximum 07-24 (2007) 09-11 (2005) 82
2009 07-08 (2009) 58 09-01 (2009) 57 54
2008 06-19 (2008) 57 08-11 (2008) 59 52
2007 07-24 (2007) 58 08-10 (2007) 57 16
2006 06-12 (2006) 56 09-02 (2006) 59 81
2005 06-20 (2005) 59 09-11 (2005) 58 82
2004 06-20 (2004) 57 08-07 (2004) 59 47
2003 06-23 (2003) 57 09-02 (2003) 59 70
2002 06-18 (2002) 58 09-01 (2002) 59 74
2001 07-03 (2001) 58 09-02 (2001) 58 60
2000 07-08 (2000) 58 08-19 (2000) 59 41

 

First/Last Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Difference
Minimum 06-10 (1983) 08-08 (1989) 38
Mean 06-26 08-24 58
Maximum 07-09 (1984) 09-11 (1980) 81
1989 06-30 (1989) 58 08-08 (1989) 56 38
1988 07-02 (1988) 58 08-22 (1988) 56 50
1987 06-24 (1987) 58 08-24 (1987) 57 60
1986 07-04 (1986) 55 08-25 (1986) 58 51
1985 06-28 (1985) 56 09-01 (1985) 58 64
1984 07-09 (1984) 59 09-05 (1984) 56 57
1983 06-10 (1983) 52 08-14 (1983) 59 64
1982 06-14 (1982) 54 08-21 (1982) 59 67
1981 06-27 (1981) 58 08-17 (1981) 59 50
1980 06-21 (1980) 59 09-11 (1980) 57 81

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
lee59

lee59

Posted
Posted
43 minutes ago, bluewave said:

NYC has had to wait longer for its first 50s after a late summer cold front. It used to be common for the first 50s to arrive during August. But now more and more years don’t get the first 50s until September. NYC reached the monthly low so far of 62° today.

First/Last Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Difference
Minimum 06-09 (2017) 08-15 (2013) 56
Mean 06-16 09-06 81
Maximum 06-27 (2015) 09-17 (2016) 94
2019 06-14 (2019) 58 09-06 (2019) 58 83
2018 06-12 (2018) 57 09-09 (2018) 55 88
2017 06-09 (2017) 53 09-01 (2017) 55 83
2016 06-14 (2016) 58 09-17 (2016) 59 94
2015 06-27 (2015) 58 09-14 (2015) 59 78
2014 06-15 (2014) 59 09-13 (2014) 58 89
2013 06-19 (2013) 59 08-15 (2013) 59 56
2012 06-26 (2012) 58 09-10 (2012) 58 75
2011 06-15 (2011) 56 08-29 (2011) 59 74
2010 06-11 (2010) 58 09-11 (2010) 59 91

 

First/Last Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Difference
Minimum 06-12 (2006) 08-07 (2004) 16
Mean 06-27 08-25 58
Maximum 07-24 (2007) 09-11 (2005) 82
2009 07-08 (2009) 58 09-01 (2009) 57 54
2008 06-19 (2008) 57 08-11 (2008) 59 52
2007 07-24 (2007) 58 08-10 (2007) 57 16
2006 06-12 (2006) 56 09-02 (2006) 59 81
2005 06-20 (2005) 59 09-11 (2005) 58 82
2004 06-20 (2004) 57 08-07 (2004) 59 47
2003 06-23 (2003) 57 09-02 (2003) 59 70
2002 06-18 (2002) 58 09-01 (2002) 59 74
2001 07-03 (2001) 58 09-02 (2001) 58 60
2000 07-08 (2000) 58 08-19 (2000) 59 41

 

First/Last Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Difference
Minimum 06-10 (1983) 08-08 (1989) 38
Mean 06-26 08-24 58
Maximum 07-09 (1984) 09-11 (1980) 81
1989 06-30 (1989) 58 08-08 (1989) 56 38
1988 07-02 (1988) 58 08-22 (1988) 56 50
1987 06-24 (1987) 58 08-24 (1987) 57 60
1986 07-04 (1986) 55 08-25 (1986) 58 51
1985 06-28 (1985) 56 09-01 (1985) 58 64
1984 07-09 (1984) 59 09-05 (1984) 56 57
1983 06-10 (1983) 52 08-14 (1983) 59 64
1982 06-14 (1982) 54 08-21 (1982) 59 67
1981 06-27 (1981) 58 08-17 (1981) 59 50
1980 06-21 (1980) 59 09-11 (1980) 57 81

I think NYC would have had to wait longer for there first 50s even without climate change. Heat island affect just gets continually more dramatic. I bet last night the city would have gone to the 50s if it were, lets say, 100 years ago.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted
55 minutes ago, lee59 said:

 

The heat Island around Central Park has been fairly constant for a long time now. This recent rise is a result of warmer overall temperatures. You can see similar similar cool temperature benchmarks getting pushed back in the surrounding areas also. 

7FF3A275-B654-4FE9-B534-9B7E8EAFA449.thumb.jpeg.9447da408f091696bfef8a66a65eb98d.jpeg

5A3AB3C9-5727-4EA6-BA96-30F5357BF382.thumb.jpeg.6fe2f7e90d0b5a8fd9a15f372bd8e189.jpeg

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
lee59

lee59

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The heat Island around Central Park has been fairly constant for a long time now. This recent rise is a result of warmer overall temperatures. You can see similar similar cool temperature benchmarks getting pushed back in the surrounding areas also. 

7FF3A275-B654-4FE9-B534-9B7E8EAFA449.thumb.jpeg.9447da408f091696bfef8a66a65eb98d.jpeg

5A3AB3C9-5727-4EA6-BA96-30F5357BF382.thumb.jpeg.6fe2f7e90d0b5a8fd9a15f372bd8e189.jpeg

 

There is no doubt the temps have warmed thru out the area, city and country. I am simply saying on night time lows on no wind nights, the city is much warmer and last night was one of those nights. The heat island does nothing but get worse with all the large buildings going up the past 10  years, it is getting hard to tell where Manhattan ends and Brooklyn and Queens begin. So much building in western areas of Queens and Brooklyn.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
lee59

lee59

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, lee59 said:

Latest GFS seems to show temps in the 80s until a quick brief cool down around Wednesday. Best chance for 90 looks like Friday or possibly Thursday.

Looks like the euro is similar to the GFS, with the best chance of 90 + temperatures on Friday, and possibly Thursday. then after that the Euro seems to have quite a cool down

Link to comment
Share on other sites
wdrag

wdrag

Posted
Posted

Lots of model differences tropics to se Canada the next week.  Since I had a sneak broad peek at 850 temps this coming week... am not straying from the 810A post. Need to figure out if the 12z/20 EC is loner on big heat this week... has 21C 850MB T at NYC 12z Thu.  I see the UK/GGEM/GFS want to try to cool it down mid week as does the 12z/20 GEFS.  EC op says no go but have not looked at EPS nor high res EC.  For me, staying on course with the EC for now but can see it/and I may need to adjust with a faster CFP Wed or Thu?  Just don't know. .

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CIK_62

CIK_62

Posted
Posted

On beach in  CI.      My T read remotely is just 76* at 3pm.      Best conditions during next 7 days, I bet.

Note that all rides have been closed the entire season.    Boardwalk concessions have been mostly opened.      The NY Aquarium will try a second opening by reservation only on Aug. 27th.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

At least the rate that the trees were dropping leaves has slowed a bit in the last few days. But now I have some trees that are totally bare on the south side with leaves only on the north side. The landscapers have been doing some early fall leaf clean ups.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, nycwinter said:

i like this climate pattern we are in milder winters but still good enough for snow... it's better than it was in the 80;s where you had many days in nyc during the winter when temps would end up in the single digits at nite..

 

 

I forgot about the 80 in Feb when there was a foot of snow the first day of Spring...at my age I like it milder and snowier...

Link to comment
Share on other sites
bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, uncle W said:

I forgot about the 80 in Feb when there was a foot of snow the first day of Spring...at my age I like it milder and snowier...

You wonder if we can ever top the 09-10 to 17-18 period for snowfall. We broke just about every previous snowfall record with the exception of 95-96. I guess we will find out if it was just a transition period.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...