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ORH_wxman

Winter 2020-2021

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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Anyone care to elaborate on this?

I don't know much about the impact of that, so its a real wild card...

Here is the links to the articles he mentioned on this: 

 

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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Anyone care to elaborate on this?

I don't know much about the impact of that, so its a real wild card...

Even he didn't know... 

It just seemed like maybe something to watch. If it's not in the tropics it wouldn't be as simple as strat smoke contributes to +AO given the black biomass is being release into the mid-latitudes. 

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20 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I mean technically everything is upstream of eachother since we're going around a spherical object....

 

But yeah, Tip is parsing the difference between what an index says and the "responsible party" for that pattern. I wasn't doing that....I'm merely stating that often a -NAO will be paired with a +PNA/-EPO type pattern, but when it isn't, it's really helpful to have. I'm not here to dispute that something in the PAC is causing that -NAO to occur....I'm just pointing out how helpful it is to occur during a shitty PAC pattern. 

I've actually often stated that our best snow patterns are -PNA/-NAO/-EPO....kind of a weird trifecta on first glance, but think of something like Jan 2011 or Feb/Mar 2013. But obviously you can do the big snow thing other ways too....see 2015.

I'm curious for your input (and anyone else who wants to contribute) on something. 

I've been wanting to get back into some research side of things and one of those things is regarding ENSO. When using the ESRL pages to draw up composites one thing I've been heavily weighing is the climo period being used. Often times, when you see composites thrown around (let's say a much older period) they are being compared to the most recent climo period (in this case 1980-2010). Would you agree, the best course of action to take is to use a base period which is closer to that time you're assessing? 

For example, 

Let's say you wanted to see DJF temperature anomalies for the La Nina winter of 1949-1950...would you really want to be using 1981-2010 climo? or would it be much more accurate to compare to a climo period closer to the specific period? I guess at the end of the day the differences shouldn't be large, but I would think it could certainly skew things a bit. 

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I'm curious for your input (and anyone else who wants to contribute) on something. 

I've been wanting to get back into some research side of things and one of those things is regarding ENSO. When using the ESRL pages to draw up composites one thing I've been heavily weighing is the climo period being used. Often times, when you see composites thrown around (let's say a much older period) they are being compared to the most recent climo period (in this case 1980-2010). Would you agree, the best course of action to take is to use a base period which is closer to that time you're assessing? 

For example, 

Let's say you wanted to see DJF temperature anomalies for the La Nina winter of 1949-1950...would you really want to be using 1981-2010 climo? or would it be much more accurate to compare to a climo period closer to the specific period? I guess at the end of the day the differences shouldn't be large, but I would think it could certainly skew things a bit. 

I've usually used a longer term average (they have an option for 1951-2010) to compare the years. That idea might need to be reassessed though as we continue to warm....once you warm enough, a solidly below average winter based on 2001-2030 normals might not be below average at all in 1950. Right now, the seasonal variance is still significantly more than the underlying warming trend, but it becomes ever closer as the years go by.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I've usually used a longer term average (they have an option for 1951-2010) to compare the years. That idea might need to be reassessed though as we continue to warm....once you warm enough, a solidly below average winter based on 2001-2030 normals might not be below average at all in 1950. Right now, the seasonal variance is still significantly more than the underlying warming trend, but it becomes ever closer as the years go by.

 

 

Thank you! These are my thoughts exactly. I was thinking of using the 1951-2010 option to go about this. This is something that came to me a few years ago. It's actually kinda fun to take a season and then compare it to all the different climo periods. You can actually see a definite shift and in some cases it's pretty striking. 

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What sucks is you can't alter the base climo period on this page.

https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl

If you could do that...ughhh I think you could certainly be able to spot short and long term trends. I suppose though those who are Python experts could probably do something but that is certainly not me. 

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16 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I’m observing my local squirrels rapidly fattening up.

Well too be fair, most people are too thanks to the COVID 

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52 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Its another bumper crop year on acorns too up here.

White pines bent down with their cone crops.

 

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43 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Euro op and weeklies bad? Euro seasonal snowfall good?

Still waiting for the epic pattern that the Euro seasonal had last winter.

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54 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I’m on the ginxy train.   We were the only ones in 2010-11 also.

Let's hope we can add in the 2 Feb storms we just missed and we can run from Boxing day to St Pats

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30 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Let's hope we can add in the 2 Feb storms we just missed and we can run from Boxing day to St Pats

Maybe we can combine 2010-11 with 1995-96 and go Thanksgiving to April!

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8 hours ago, uncle W said:

Looking at oni only 1995 and 2005 and 2007 are the best fits imo...

 

1 hour ago, EasternLI said:

In a MEI sense, 2007 looks like the best fit. 

winter spans 2 years, clarify

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10 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

winter spans 2 years, clarify

95-96....great winter...

05-06....good winter...

07-08...horrible winter...

I'll take a blend of all three....

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