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ORH_wxman

Winter 2020-2021

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Looking for other seasons in more detail and not off the top of my head......

'76-'77 narrowly missed at ORH...Feb '77 was slightly below normal for snowfall but all other months were above. It appears that '95-'96 is indeed the only other season outside of '04-'05....and actually '04-'05 didn't qualify at ORH (it did for BOS though)....December '04 was about 1.5" below normal for snow.

 

'02-'03 came close but March fizzled badly after the first week that gave a 5-6" event. '77-'78 also very narrowly came close but November only mustered 2.2" vs a 3.0" average.

At my current location only 5 of 22 winters even had both Jan and Feb AN and only 07-08 could do it for DJFM.  In contrast, all 8 of those 81-82 months were AN. 

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1 hour ago, tamarack said:

2007-08 missed November but did real well DJFM.  Not so for 2004-05 as all the serious storms missed us through the 1st week of February - nothing bigger than 3.4" which is pitiful for here.  The 31 days Feb 10-March 12 made up for it with 60".  Last winter was BN for snow but the first time I've had a 3"+ snowstorm in 7 consecutive months.  1981-82 in Ft. Kent had 1"+ snows Oct-May, only time I've seen that.

I don’t have data for 2004-2005 because we weren’t yet in this location, but it sounds like 2007-2008 was a bit different here – January was well below average with just 27.6” of snow, and November was actually above average.  For the ONDJFMAM stretch, there were some great above normal months in there with November at almost 20”, December at almost 70”, February at 55”, and March near 35”.  January was surprisingly the odd man out of that great stretch.  The early and late parts of the season were below average as well (October, April, and May), but relative to January those months typically bring much less snow.

You guys are always coming with crazy ways to look at snow data that I would never have thought about – seasons with the most above average months; I have never looked at that, LOL.  I was able to check quickly with an IF/THEN/SUM formula in my snowfall spreadsheet and the best I’ve found for ONDJFMAM is 5 above average months for the seasons of 2009-2010 (DJFAM), 2010-2011 (ODJFM), and 2016-2017 (ONFMA).  Interestingly, 2009-2010 was a below average season overall (brought to 5 months by above average April and May snowfall), but the other two were both strong seasons with total snowfall of 185”+.

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4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it's hard to pull off AN snow in every month including November....1995-1996 did it too. Off the top of my head I can't think of any others.....'93-'94 came close, but we only got a few tenths in November.

2002-03?

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45 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

I don’t have data for 2004-2005 because we weren’t yet in this location, but it sounds like 2007-2008 was a bit different here – January was well below average with just 27.6” of snow, and November was actually above average.  For the ONDJFMAM stretch, there were some great above normal months in there with November at almost 20”, December at almost 70”, February at 55”, and March near 35”.  January was surprisingly the odd man out of that great stretch.  The early and late parts of the season were below average as well (October, April, and May), but relative to January those months typically bring much less snow.

You guys are always coming with crazy ways to look at snow data that I would never have thought about – seasons with the most above average months; I have never looked at that, LOL.  I was able to check quickly with an IF/THEN/SUM formula in my snowfall spreadsheet and the best I’ve found for ONDJFMAM is 5 above average months for the seasons of 2009-2010 (DJFAM), 2010-2011 (ODJFM), and 2016-2017 (ONFMA).  Interestingly, 2009-2010 was a below average season overall (brought to 5 months by above average April and May snowfall), but the other two were both strong seasons with total snowfall of 185”+.

2007-08 had only 1.3" in November.  Dec (46.2") brought 6 events 3.7-10.7.  Three storms in Jan (27.5"): 1-2 had 12.5", season's biggest but somewhat localized.  Then an even more localized event on 1/14 dropped 8" of fluff.  In AUG we had 10" in 4.5 hours when I had to leave for a family emergency (hairy drive in SN++ but all was well) and AUG finished with 15" while Farmington had 5.5.  Four days later another 5.5".  Feb (46.5") had 8 snows of 3-9", including 4 totaling 21.7" in 6 days, 2/5-10.  SWFEs galore!  Only 3 snows 3"+ in March, in which the 18.8" was only 1.3" AN.  Forecast for 3/1 was 10-14 from a "Manitoba Mauler" but only 6" came down, the last 4"+ event of the season.

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11 minutes ago, weathafella said:

2002-03?

March didn't make it for ORH....it may have for some other area that also did well in Nov 2002.

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

March didn't make it for ORH....it may have for some other area that also did well in Nov 2002.

Boston made it.  We had a nice 8 inch dump but ORH may have been fringed plus a few other smaller events.  That’s an underrated winter!

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27 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Boston made it.  We had a nice 8 inch dump but ORH may have been fringed plus a few other smaller events.  That’s an underrated winter!

BOS was BN for snow January 03. 

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13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

BOS was BN for snow January 03. 

Someone probably in N RI/NE CT or interior E MA south of the pike had all 4 months AN for snow....you had to be far enough northwest to get smoked in January 2003 but also far enough south to get hit by that nice band in the 3/6/03 system.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Someone probably in N RI/NE CT or interior E MA south of the pike had all 4 months AN for snow....you had to be far enough northwest to get smoked in January 2003 but also far enough south to get hit by that nice band in the 3/6/03 system.

I was thinking that. Wonder if that would have been Kevin. Ugh, Jan was brutal. Rapid build up of snow NW of 90/128 interchange. Rapid depression to the SE of that. 

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37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I was thinking that. Wonder if that would have been Kevin. Ugh, Jan was brutal. Rapid build up of snow NW of 90/128 interchange. Rapid depression to the SE of that. 

Yeah his area might have. They got a lot of mixing in the Jan 03 storm there but they well might have gotten enough to have above normal snow that month. Just to his north east and east northeast there was less sleet intrusion. 

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6 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Last met Winter was very mild here, but season snowfall was average thanks in part to the 4th snowiest November, 12th snowiest April, and 4th snowiest May on record lol. Actual Winter was very disappointing outside of the month stretch from mid January through mid February.  2004-05 on the other hand was kind of close to average temperature wise with way above average snowfall, and most of this heavy snowfall came during actual Winter. A great season that would get a lot more attention if it wasn't followed so closely by so many other great winters. The 2 winters had almost nothing in common from a sensible weather standpoint here.

May 2020 was the snowiest on record here, but November wasn't even top 10. We lucked out. Except for Mar/Apr, we were average to above average every month snow wise. Jan-Feb 2019 was awesome. We got 42" in those 2 months. If I had to choose between the last two winters and 2004-05, I'd pick 2004-05. Had that nice storm right before Christmas and a few good storms in Jan and Feb 05. El Nino's up this way compared to Detroit are usually half and half, some good and some bad. For example 2006-07, 2009-10 and 2015-16 were sub 30" winters. 

But 2004-05 was an El Nino winter coming off a warm neutral and preceding Nino before that. So different oceanic states compared to this year. 

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On 9/14/2020 at 12:00 AM, raindancewx said:

If you try to reconcile trends in the QBO and trends in the ENSO pattern year/year you get the same outlook as my actual (tentative) winter analogs more or less. Last year the y/y trend in Nino 3.4 and the QBO matched with 2004, and the winter was pretty similar, so I think I have the right idea for what to expect this year given that the QBO/ENSO trend blend matches my analogs. The up/down you see is whether the QBO trend was moving up or down from the prior month. You can see each trend was the same for Jan-Aug in 2004 and 2019, and the ENSO trend was El Nino after warm Nino 3.4. I think the ENSO trend matters a lot, because 2002 was actually a very close QBO/ENSO match, but it had a very different prior year ENSO. So 2019-20 looked nothing like 2002-03 nationally.

These are from my winter outlook draft -

QBO-Trend-Matches-2.png

Something like this for 2020-21. I'l refine it if September comes in very different on the monthly QBO index though.

QBO-Trend-Matches-1.png

You can see, the trend in each month in the blended average matches 2020. So you'd expect the QBO to be around +6 for September, or at least higher than August. The year over year ENSO drop is probably more like 27.1 to 25.5 than 27.9 to 26.1, but it's close enough. I went with a blend because the La Nina / near La Nina +QBO winters following El Ninos are all pretty poor matches for either QBO intensity, or monthly trends. 1966 is way out for -QBO intensity early on. 1973 has the wrong month/month trend in most months. 1980 was trending up all year, so the timing is off. 1998 is off a lot by timing and magnitude. So the best matches are 2010 and 2016, but even they aren't that strong really. We're not going to see the 3C drop off in Nino 3.4 those two years had, and the 2020 QBO is way more positive each month compared to 2010. 

QBO-Trend-Matches-3.png

Some of your other posts have mentioned an Atlantic ACE and La Nina correlation.  Will that play into your winter outlook?

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2 hours ago, MarkO said:

Anyone have a map of how NE did in 10/11? Who were the winners and losers?

Kind of meh here other than the 15" dump on 4/1.  Prior to that snow was essentially on the average (within 1/2") with 8.9" the biggest event.  Was tough watching the AUG/WVL/BGR confirmed blizzards on 12/27 and 1/12, totaling about 30" for those places while we had nice 7-8" storms with modest winds.  Temps ran slightly BN but with no notable cold snaps.  Most memorable thing about that winter was driving into AUG on Boxing Day as conditions got worse and worse, leading my wife to cancel her PWM doctor appt.  Within 5 miles on the way north visibility was up to 1/2 mile (was <100' outside the North Augusta Wendy's) and barely snowing at home.
And 02-03 was cold and dry here, with only November getting AN snowfall.  Suppression depression?

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1 hour ago, weathafella said:

2010-11 was home to one of my all time melts on the eve of getting 15 inches.

Oh yea I remember that well lol. Muthha fers thrown around like flakes in a blizzard 

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5 hours ago, MarkO said:

Anyone have a map of how NE did in 10/11? Who were the winners and losers?

Will had one in here but must have deleted it.  You can scroll thru the posts to get an idea.

 

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Will had one in here but must have deleted it.  You can scroll thru the posts to get an idea.

 

Oh man, Ryan and Tippy melt on that storm there. LOL.

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I lost the 2010-2011 snow map forever unless someone saved it. It was on my old laptop and somehow it didn't make it over to my new one years ago and I didn't have an archived copy on here.

Only way it still exists is if someone saved it for themselves.

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