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ORH_wxman

Winter 2020-2021

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19 hours ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I have to say, I am very confused on what exactly looks to happen here in northern Connecticut.  As long as it is NOT like last year ( early December was awesome though ) the rest of the year sucked, then I will be happy. Plus... It only takes 1 great snowstorm or Blizzard to make the season feel like it was a good one. 

I have learned though ( last year was a good example ) not to take a forecast to heart as it will and does change. Almost every media forum, meteotologist, were calling for stellar Winter conditions here in Southern New England, and they all had mud on their face by late January when they realized that it was not coming to fruition. So, I always keep faith as thongs can and do change from week to week. 

May help if we stop using words like 'exact' at/for locations that are below the synoptic, probably more like super-synoptic scale, when in context of seasonal speculation. 

Assuming for the moment that you are just using common figures of speech with these turn of phrases, even so neither is within the purview of capacity or any skill to predict therein/from ... not even close.  Seasonal forecasting is done at continental scopes and scales, where therein we may break down into smaller quadratures - such as, the SW, the NW, the Northern Plains, the S ... SE, the Great Lakes, OV, MA and NE regions, although we could argue the these latter four could be grouped together.  We say these regions will average arid, wet, cool, or warmer, respective of their longer termed climate normals ( usually at minimum a 30-year mean .. but often extending to 120 and so forth ).   

Then there is a subjective vs objective 'grading' of the seasonal forecast - whole 'nother head game.  If a seasonal forecast 'suggests' dry and warm (say) in New England, that just means that at some point(s) along the way ... whether persistently albeit modestly warm bias, or, a few shorter duration hot spells interceded by cool backs ( where an when we can have epic blizzards mind you!)... then the winter forecast will verify similarly in either scenario - but the former gets the genius tag because the latter had those three crucial and fairness obscuring idiosyncratic fight starter storms... ha. 

I see that a lot though.  Some enthusiast waiting in their silent observation, comes in and says ... 'so let me get this straight, your saying my backyard' ...  No seasonal forecast can do that.  The best you can do is look at seasonal forecast for warmer(cooler) and wet(drier) interchangeably as they may be, and roll the dice and figure that if the forecast has any substantive value, 'I may experience days warmer(cooler) and wet(drier) some > 50% of the days'.

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3 hours ago, weathafella said:

2004-05 had the rarity of above normal snows in every individual month November to March.   We kicked off the season with a nice 3-6 event Veterans Day weekend.  Max (capecod04) had just moved to the area and messenger (RIP) was active that season as well.  

Yeah it's hard to pull off AN snow in every month including November....1995-1996 did it too. Off the top of my head I can't think of any others.....'93-'94 came close, but we only got a few tenths in November.

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On 9/13/2020 at 6:56 PM, Fozz said:

My gut feeling says this will be a pretty good winter, but COVID might stop us from fully enjoying it. My main concern is how safe it is to stay at a hotel or AirBnB for any ski weekend in NNE.

Based on last winter, which was practically a repeat of 2001-02 and unimpressive even by the standards of my old home, going the extra distance to NNE was worth it just about every single time. It was not too bad up there.

I know everyone's circumstances are different, but I was thinking the exact opposite. Due to covid I would be able to enjoy the Winter more since I am working from home. Getting fresh air or taking walks outside is very low risk and with many other activities still closed, it seems like there would be plenty of walking in the great outdoors to be had. I do see your point about ski resorts though.

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23 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

2004-05 had several cold snaps too. Most of Jan 2005 was pretty cold. Last winter was devoid of any cold. We also got 65" locally. 

Last met Winter was very mild here, but season snowfall was average thanks in part to the 4th snowiest November, 12th snowiest April, and 4th snowiest May on record lol. Actual Winter was very disappointing outside of the month stretch from mid January through mid February.  2004-05 on the other hand was kind of close to average temperature wise with way above average snowfall, and most of this heavy snowfall came during actual Winter. A great season that would get a lot more attention if it wasn't followed so closely by so many other great winters. The 2 winters had almost nothing in common from a sensible weather standpoint here.

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it's hard to pull off AN snow in every month including November....1995-1996 did it too. Off the top of my head I can't think of any others.....'93-'94 came close, but we only got a few tenths in November.

2007-08 missed November but did real well DJFM.  Not so for 2004-05 as all the serious storms missed us through the 1st week of February - nothing bigger than 3.4" which is pitiful for here.  The 31 days Feb 10-March 12 made up for it with 60".  Last winter was BN for snow but the first time I've had a 3"+ snowstorm in 7 consecutive months.  1981-82 in Ft. Kent had 1"+ snows Oct-May, only time I've seen that.

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3 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Rest assured, its going to snow.

It has for the last 63 yrs that i remember..............:)

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38 minutes ago, tamarack said:

2007-08 missed November but did real well DJFM.  Not so for 2004-05 as all the serious storms missed us through the 1st week of February - nothing bigger than 3.4" which is pitiful for here.  The 31 days Feb 10-March 12 made up for it with 60".  Last winter was BN for snow but the first time I've had a 3"+ snowstorm in 7 consecutive months.  1981-82 in Ft. Kent had 1"+ snows Oct-May, only time I've seen that.

Looking for other seasons in more detail and not off the top of my head......

'76-'77 narrowly missed at ORH...Feb '77 was slightly below normal for snowfall but all other months were above. It appears that '95-'96 is indeed the only other season outside of '04-'05....and actually '04-'05 didn't qualify at ORH (it did for BOS though)....December '04 was about 1.5" below normal for snow.

 

'02-'03 came close but March fizzled badly after the first week that gave a 5-6" event. '77-'78 also very narrowly came close but November only mustered 2.2" vs a 3.0" average.

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Looking for other seasons in more detail and not off the top of my head......

'76-'77 narrowly missed at ORH...Feb '77 was slightly below normal for snowfall but all other months were above. It appears that '95-'96 is indeed the only other season outside of '04-'05....and actually '04-'05 didn't qualify at ORH (it did for BOS though)....December '04 was about 1.5" below normal for snow.

 

'02-'03 came close but March fizzled badly after the first week that gave a 5-6" event. '77-'78 also very narrowly came close but November only mustered 2.2" vs a 3.0" average.

At my current location only 5 of 22 winters even had both Jan and Feb AN and only 07-08 could do it for DJFM.  In contrast, all 8 of those 81-82 months were AN. 

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1 hour ago, tamarack said:

2007-08 missed November but did real well DJFM.  Not so for 2004-05 as all the serious storms missed us through the 1st week of February - nothing bigger than 3.4" which is pitiful for here.  The 31 days Feb 10-March 12 made up for it with 60".  Last winter was BN for snow but the first time I've had a 3"+ snowstorm in 7 consecutive months.  1981-82 in Ft. Kent had 1"+ snows Oct-May, only time I've seen that.

I don’t have data for 2004-2005 because we weren’t yet in this location, but it sounds like 2007-2008 was a bit different here – January was well below average with just 27.6” of snow, and November was actually above average.  For the ONDJFMAM stretch, there were some great above normal months in there with November at almost 20”, December at almost 70”, February at 55”, and March near 35”.  January was surprisingly the odd man out of that great stretch.  The early and late parts of the season were below average as well (October, April, and May), but relative to January those months typically bring much less snow.

You guys are always coming with crazy ways to look at snow data that I would never have thought about – seasons with the most above average months; I have never looked at that, LOL.  I was able to check quickly with an IF/THEN/SUM formula in my snowfall spreadsheet and the best I’ve found for ONDJFMAM is 5 above average months for the seasons of 2009-2010 (DJFAM), 2010-2011 (ODJFM), and 2016-2017 (ONFMA).  Interestingly, 2009-2010 was a below average season overall (brought to 5 months by above average April and May snowfall), but the other two were both strong seasons with total snowfall of 185”+.

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4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it's hard to pull off AN snow in every month including November....1995-1996 did it too. Off the top of my head I can't think of any others.....'93-'94 came close, but we only got a few tenths in November.

2002-03?

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45 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

I don’t have data for 2004-2005 because we weren’t yet in this location, but it sounds like 2007-2008 was a bit different here – January was well below average with just 27.6” of snow, and November was actually above average.  For the ONDJFMAM stretch, there were some great above normal months in there with November at almost 20”, December at almost 70”, February at 55”, and March near 35”.  January was surprisingly the odd man out of that great stretch.  The early and late parts of the season were below average as well (October, April, and May), but relative to January those months typically bring much less snow.

You guys are always coming with crazy ways to look at snow data that I would never have thought about – seasons with the most above average months; I have never looked at that, LOL.  I was able to check quickly with an IF/THEN/SUM formula in my snowfall spreadsheet and the best I’ve found for ONDJFMAM is 5 above average months for the seasons of 2009-2010 (DJFAM), 2010-2011 (ODJFM), and 2016-2017 (ONFMA).  Interestingly, 2009-2010 was a below average season overall (brought to 5 months by above average April and May snowfall), but the other two were both strong seasons with total snowfall of 185”+.

2007-08 had only 1.3" in November.  Dec (46.2") brought 6 events 3.7-10.7.  Three storms in Jan (27.5"): 1-2 had 12.5", season's biggest but somewhat localized.  Then an even more localized event on 1/14 dropped 8" of fluff.  In AUG we had 10" in 4.5 hours when I had to leave for a family emergency (hairy drive in SN++ but all was well) and AUG finished with 15" while Farmington had 5.5.  Four days later another 5.5".  Feb (46.5") had 8 snows of 3-9", including 4 totaling 21.7" in 6 days, 2/5-10.  SWFEs galore!  Only 3 snows 3"+ in March, in which the 18.8" was only 1.3" AN.  Forecast for 3/1 was 10-14 from a "Manitoba Mauler" but only 6" came down, the last 4"+ event of the season.

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11 minutes ago, weathafella said:

2002-03?

March didn't make it for ORH....it may have for some other area that also did well in Nov 2002.

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

March didn't make it for ORH....it may have for some other area that also did well in Nov 2002.

Boston made it.  We had a nice 8 inch dump but ORH may have been fringed plus a few other smaller events.  That’s an underrated winter!

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27 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Boston made it.  We had a nice 8 inch dump but ORH may have been fringed plus a few other smaller events.  That’s an underrated winter!

BOS was BN for snow January 03. 

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13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

BOS was BN for snow January 03. 

Someone probably in N RI/NE CT or interior E MA south of the pike had all 4 months AN for snow....you had to be far enough northwest to get smoked in January 2003 but also far enough south to get hit by that nice band in the 3/6/03 system.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Someone probably in N RI/NE CT or interior E MA south of the pike had all 4 months AN for snow....you had to be far enough northwest to get smoked in January 2003 but also far enough south to get hit by that nice band in the 3/6/03 system.

I was thinking that. Wonder if that would have been Kevin. Ugh, Jan was brutal. Rapid build up of snow NW of 90/128 interchange. Rapid depression to the SE of that. 

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37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I was thinking that. Wonder if that would have been Kevin. Ugh, Jan was brutal. Rapid build up of snow NW of 90/128 interchange. Rapid depression to the SE of that. 

Yeah his area might have. They got a lot of mixing in the Jan 03 storm there but they well might have gotten enough to have above normal snow that month. Just to his north east and east northeast there was less sleet intrusion. 

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6 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Last met Winter was very mild here, but season snowfall was average thanks in part to the 4th snowiest November, 12th snowiest April, and 4th snowiest May on record lol. Actual Winter was very disappointing outside of the month stretch from mid January through mid February.  2004-05 on the other hand was kind of close to average temperature wise with way above average snowfall, and most of this heavy snowfall came during actual Winter. A great season that would get a lot more attention if it wasn't followed so closely by so many other great winters. The 2 winters had almost nothing in common from a sensible weather standpoint here.

May 2020 was the snowiest on record here, but November wasn't even top 10. We lucked out. Except for Mar/Apr, we were average to above average every month snow wise. Jan-Feb 2019 was awesome. We got 42" in those 2 months. If I had to choose between the last two winters and 2004-05, I'd pick 2004-05. Had that nice storm right before Christmas and a few good storms in Jan and Feb 05. El Nino's up this way compared to Detroit are usually half and half, some good and some bad. For example 2006-07, 2009-10 and 2015-16 were sub 30" winters. 

But 2004-05 was an El Nino winter coming off a warm neutral and preceding Nino before that. So different oceanic states compared to this year. 

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On 9/14/2020 at 12:00 AM, raindancewx said:

If you try to reconcile trends in the QBO and trends in the ENSO pattern year/year you get the same outlook as my actual (tentative) winter analogs more or less. Last year the y/y trend in Nino 3.4 and the QBO matched with 2004, and the winter was pretty similar, so I think I have the right idea for what to expect this year given that the QBO/ENSO trend blend matches my analogs. The up/down you see is whether the QBO trend was moving up or down from the prior month. You can see each trend was the same for Jan-Aug in 2004 and 2019, and the ENSO trend was El Nino after warm Nino 3.4. I think the ENSO trend matters a lot, because 2002 was actually a very close QBO/ENSO match, but it had a very different prior year ENSO. So 2019-20 looked nothing like 2002-03 nationally.

These are from my winter outlook draft -

QBO-Trend-Matches-2.png

Something like this for 2020-21. I'l refine it if September comes in very different on the monthly QBO index though.

QBO-Trend-Matches-1.png

You can see, the trend in each month in the blended average matches 2020. So you'd expect the QBO to be around +6 for September, or at least higher than August. The year over year ENSO drop is probably more like 27.1 to 25.5 than 27.9 to 26.1, but it's close enough. I went with a blend because the La Nina / near La Nina +QBO winters following El Ninos are all pretty poor matches for either QBO intensity, or monthly trends. 1966 is way out for -QBO intensity early on. 1973 has the wrong month/month trend in most months. 1980 was trending up all year, so the timing is off. 1998 is off a lot by timing and magnitude. So the best matches are 2010 and 2016, but even they aren't that strong really. We're not going to see the 3C drop off in Nino 3.4 those two years had, and the 2020 QBO is way more positive each month compared to 2010. 

QBO-Trend-Matches-3.png

Some of your other posts have mentioned an Atlantic ACE and La Nina correlation.  Will that play into your winter outlook?

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