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ORH_wxman

Winter 2020-2021

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Didn't see a thread yet for next winter. We're getting past the "spring barrier" for ENSO forecasts....which means we're emerging into a clearer picture of what it will look like in that region going into fall. There isstill uncertainty, but it is reduced compared to a few weeks ago.

 

We're currently looking like we will be heading into La Nina after a weak El Nino. Here's the latest ECWMF and C3S (used to be EuroSIP) plots:

 

C3S_ensoForecast_june2020.png.9cf66f249f677150f5cd70ce332962f3.pngECMWFensoForecast_june2020.png.d805bb9d653bc3e8b82f11010fa3e376.png

 

 

They are pointing toward weak El Nino by fall....we'll see if that develops further into a moderate/stronger forecast as summer wears on. There are some very cold anomalies in the eastern region at depth, so it's possible that it could translate into something more than a weak Nina if we start getting easterly feedback.

ENSO_depthanomalies.gif.047a05a3c7a9ca9c18ed8d6dfda767e1.gif

 

 

Anyway, there is precedent for La Nina winters following a weak El Nino....most recent examples are:

2007-2008

2005-2006

1995-1996

1970-1971

 

3 of those 4 years were pretty strong winters in New England. The outlier was 2005-2006, though all 4 had big Decembers. The QBO looks to be going negative (though it's not in a hurry at the moment)....that would make '07-'08, '05-'06 and '70-'71 the best matches. '70-'71 and '07-'08 were pretty potent La Ninas (both high-end moderate or borderline strong) while '05-'06 was not. It remains to be seen where this one is headed. There is evidence in both directions. I'm kind of leaning moderate at the moment with the big subsurface anomalies and the model guidance already going solidly weak Nina....I feel like the guidance tends to underestimate the strength historically.

 

 

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Will the elusive -NAO appear lol. Usually tougher to do with Nina, but it’s happened before. Nina is the talk that I hear as well. Hopefully a nice early start to winter. 

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11 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Will the elusive -NAO appear lol. Usually tougher to do with Nina, but it’s happened before. Nina is the talk that I hear as well. Hopefully a nice early start to winter. 

I'm also wondering if we're finally going to change the PAC up a bit....all that heat in the eastern PAC to the north of ENSO region (like off coast of Baja and CA) is eroding more than most recent years. Still not there yet, but something to track

 

June2020_SST.png

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm also wondering if we're finally going to change the PAC up a bit....all that heat in the eastern PAC to the north of ENSO region (like off coast of Baja and CA) is eroding more than most recent years. Still not there yet, but something to track

 

June2020_SST.png

Would probably lead to a weaker STJ? Probably not a bad thing. I feel like it's been active recently..although that's anecdotal off the top of my head.

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20 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Will the elusive -NAO appear lol. Usually tougher to do with Nina, but it’s happened before. Nina is the talk that I hear as well. Hopefully a nice early start to winter. 

Well Scott, Your last sentence has me thinking, Last year I think December 1-2 dumped a lot in Nashua, then, well we all know how the rest of winter played out. I hope all is well with all members and their families, never too early to think about winter!

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Love an early start...kind of with Kevin on that one with a snowy December, despite climo being a little hostile for me, locally.

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8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Love an early start...kind of with Kevin on that one with a snowy December, despite climo being a little hostile for me, locally.

Yeah I'm a huge fan of December snow....which is why I couldn't rank last season an F. We had pack here for like 27 out of 31 days and 27" total. That is an excellent month. Would have been better without that hideous cutter around 12/8-12/9 but at least we refreshed right after that with a 5-6 incher.

I'm still waiting for a Dec 1995 though....basically where we run the table in December. Those are hard to get. All of our recent good Decembers that had big events before Xmas had black marks on them....2007, 2008, 2013, 2017, 2019...2009 was ok, but even that had the ugly cutter right after Xmas. Latitude is really important in December though....moreso than other winter months including March.

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I'm a huge fan of December snow....which is why I couldn't rank last season an F. We had pack here for like 27 out of 31 days and 27" total. That is an excellent month. Would have been better without that hideous cutter around 12/8-12/9 but at least we refreshed right after that with a 5-6 incher.

I'm still waiting for a Dec 1995 though....basically where we run the table in December. Those are hard to get. All of our recent good Decembers that had big events before Xmas had black marks on them....2007, 2008, 2013, 2017, 2019...2009 was ok, but even that had the ugly cutter right after Xmas. Latitude is really important in December though....moreso than other winter months including March.

Yeah, I'd love to see 1995 again. Epic month. So many good memories. I think Christmas morning it was like 5F out with a foot OTG. A true Christmas of yore. I'll have to watch Schwoegler's video again for that storm a few days earlier. :lol: 

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3 hours ago, dryslot said:

Where do i sign on 07-08 and 70-71?

I was 2-3 years old living in FL for 70-71 but I experienced 07-08 in all of it's glory.  I'll take that any day. 

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Just now, mreaves said:

I was 2-3 years old living in FL for 70-71 but I experienced 07-08 in all of it's glory.  I'll take that any day. 

70-71, #2 in my top 5, 07-08, #3

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2010-2011 was a La Niña, but it was accompanied by a strong -NAO.

2005-2006 was a mild winter, but featured significant winter storms in each month, December-March, including the epic February ‘06 blizzard.

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It’s early but my initial sense is big ratter.  I plan to spend a lot of time in VT

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10 minutes ago, weathafella said:

It’s early but my initial sense is big ratter.  I plan to spend a lot of time in VT

Last year’s ratter was right up there with 01-02, 11-12.  Might as well get another out of the way during the pandemic. 

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41 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Last year’s ratter was right up there with 01-02, 11-12.  Might as well get another out of the way during the pandemic. 

I don’t think it was as bad but on the next tier up.   That said, there’s no ratter like a nina ratter.

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Just now, weathafella said:

I don’t think it was as bad but on the next tier up.   That said, there’s no ratter like a nina ratter.

It was that bad here. The big early Dec storm dropped 5” after 80% rain to begin with as just inland was ripping. Finished the season with about 19”. Probably 5 or 6 days with snow cover. That’s horrific, even for the coast. 

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2 hours ago, weathafella said:

It’s early but my initial sense is big ratter.  I plan to spend a lot of time in VT

Don't bring a SNE jinx up here!  We had our own struggle this past winter.

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18 hours ago, mreaves said:

Don't bring a SNE jinx up here!  We had our own struggle this past winter.

I think you guys were maybe 25% sub normal?   

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19 hours ago, NorEastermass128 said:

It was that bad here. The big early Dec storm dropped 5” after 80% rain to begin with as just inland was ripping. Finished the season with about 19”. Probably 5 or 6 days with snow cover. That’s horrific, even for the coast. 

Maybe it was the 70s in January that made it reasonable...,     My snow was my lowest since I moved into this house but that’s only 5 years.   You’re right thought..l.a major ratter but 2011-12 and 2001-02 felt worse.   This WS more along the lines of 1994-95.

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3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I think you guys were maybe 25% sub normal?   

The problem wasn't really with the amount of snow, it was with retention.  That's my weather fetish.  I'll take nickle and dime events all winter long, I just don't want to lose any of it along the way.

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On ‎7‎/‎4‎/‎2020 at 11:18 AM, TheCloser24 said:

2010-2011 was a La Niña, but it was accompanied by a strong -NAO.

2005-2006 was a mild winter, but featured significant winter storms in each month, December-March, including the epic February ‘06 blizzard.

2005-06 was my only winter in the past 50+ years that failed to produce a storm 6"+.  It's a member of my bottom 5 Maine winters, with 1973-74, 1979-80, 2009-10 and 2015-16.

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1 minute ago, tamarack said:

2005-06 was my only winter in the past 50+ years that failed to produce a storm 6"+.  It's a member of my bottom 5 Maine winters, with 1973-74, 1979-80, 2009-10 and 2015-16.

Yeah your area got the shaft that winter....you missed the big December fun in both directions (12/9 to the south and 12/25-26 to the north)

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I said ratter but true...it’s way too early.  I think I can take a reasonable wag around Labor Day.   On the plus side...we’re due for decency in winter sort of.   I’m still coming for you mreaves!

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1 minute ago, weathafella said:

I said ratter but true...it’s way too early.  I think I can take a reasonable wag around Labor Day.   On the plus side...we’re due for decency in winter sort of.   I’m still coming for you mreaves!

We've been getting a bunch of warm Januarys/Februarys recently after a string of cold ones in the 2009-2015 time range. Hopefully we can swing it back cold this winter. 2019 was kind of cold in Jan/Feb but we had so many cutters mixed in that it didn't feel like it, lol.

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4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah your area got the shaft that winter....you missed the big December fun in both directions (12/9 to the south and 12/25-26 to the north)

That Christmas night + storm is CAR's biggest at 33" and change.  Same at Fort Kent where the co-op recorded 32".  Eastern had a member from FK then and he measured 37".  Given the one-a-day and seemingly lackadaisical reporting from the co-op, I think the higher number is more accurate.

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