weathafella Posted November 23, 2020 2 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Avatar change? Not since 2001 for me... 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Go Kart Mozart Posted November 23, 2020 That's weird. On my screen I am seeing a pic of a 40ish year old man with glasses, no more western-guy. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mreaves Posted November 23, 2020 16 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: That's weird. On my screen I am seeing a pic of a 40ish year old man with glasses, no more western-guy. ? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2020 12 hours ago, weathafella said: You probably mean February? Nope, Jan 2006 had over 2 feet at ORH...a couple solid warning events (Jan 2-3 and Jan 23) mixed with a couple smaller ones. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Go Kart Mozart Posted November 23, 2020 2 hours ago, mreaves said: ? OK, I am back to seeing the "western guy", at least on my work computer. That was weird. It looked like a pic of the judge from the old TV show Night Court. I will have to check my laptop when I get home. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2020 People are already getting hyped on social media for the 1st half of December in the east. Eps looks really good for the 1st week of December with a big pna spike. 5 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2020 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: People are already getting hyped on social media for the 1st half of December in the east. Eps looks really good for the 1st week of December with a big pna spike. There isn't any cold air for the PNA to tap, though....that may work during the heart of winter, but it won't in early December....at least not for I95. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
J Paul Gordon Posted November 23, 2020 Oh sure it can, at least where you are. We get monster slop/snow/ice storms in some scenarios under a regime like this even early in December. Maybe especially early in December. Ice storms especially. A transitory Quebec High can sometimes do wonders. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said: Oh sure it can, at least where you are. We get monster slop/snow/ice storms in some scenarios under a regime like this even early in December. Maybe especially early in December. Ice storms especially. A transitory Quebec High can sometimes do wonders. There needs to be a cold source......the high is the vehicle for the cold. Worcester hills could probably pull it off, sure. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
J Paul Gordon Posted November 23, 2020 28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: There needs to be a cold source......the high is the vehicle for the cold. Worcester hills could probably pull it off, sure. Tolland Massiff and NE/NW CT, NW RI, along 95-495 belt northeastward. Sometime interior SE MA can get a good icing in that kind situation in a generally BAH HUMBUG pattern. Have to count the little blessings in the midst of the larger storm. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2020 We could pull something off in first week of December if it is well-timed but I'm definitely not expecting it. It would serve us well to wait for at least a little bit of EPO-easing. We don't need a nuclear ridge there, but we need enough to flush the putrid dreck out of Canada. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2020 SO MEI value held at -1.2 https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/ Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
tamarack Posted November 23, 2020 8 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Nope, Jan 2006 had over 2 feet at ORH...a couple solid warning events (Jan 2-3 and Jan 23) mixed with a couple smaller ones. Had 24.6" here, which thanks to the thaws could only raise the pack from 4" to 11 - winter's "peak" as Feb 1 onward yielded only 7.8" compared to my 45" average for that half of winter. That's my only snow season since NNJ (1967-68) that never had even a 6" event. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
raindancewx Posted November 24, 2020 On the old MEI data, 1954, 1964, 1988 are probably the closest matches to 2020, along with 2007. Snow patterns that are similar nationally in the Fall have tended to "look" like 2007 (it's like a blend of 1947-48/1996-97) somewhat after Nov 20, with the Plains usually getting hosed for snow somewhere. It's a mixed signal for most of the US, but I'd say overall still favors New England, Midwest & West, with NYC-Chicago on the edge, and areas south below average. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 6, 2020 So that’s the end of winter 2020-2021 right? Last two winter’s ended after the first storm right? 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
It's Always Sunny Posted December 6, 2020 I see some warming over Siberia...could have some implications for end of this month or early next year. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Snowy Hibbo Posted December 6, 2020 The not so bad climatic driver conditions for ENSO and QBO and the potential for a SSW show me potential for a pretty nice winter for New England in my latest winter outlook https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2020/12/06/north-america-winter-outlook-2020-21/ Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mothman Posted December 7, 2020 It's dead in here. What a boring stretch. Models look to continue a zonal theme for the extended. That can be good...I guess I gotta hold out till April again to get anything good 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
tamarack Posted December 8, 2020 Copied 40/70 from the December thread. Oh, okay. Well, my point was that el nino winters are usually more back loaded for SNE than la nina, but the caveat being that that maybe mostly due to February. You may have a case for March temps, however, I am more confident that el nino is better for March snow in SNE than la nina. Obviously its subjetive...I am talking about SNE because I live here and its a NE subforum. Maybe NNE is different, at least for my place starting with 98-99 (SN expressed as percent of average): ENSO Mar. SN n Strong Nino 38% 1 (15-16) Mod. Nino 28% 2 Weak Nino 111% 4 La Nada 74% 7 Weak Nina 166% 4 (March 2001 is my snowiest month here - 55.5") Mod. Nina 108% 4 Strong Nina none yet Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Snowstorms Posted December 8, 2020 40 minutes ago, tamarack said: Copied 40/70 from the December thread. Oh, okay. Well, my point was that el nino winters are usually more back loaded for SNE than la nina, but the caveat being that that maybe mostly due to February. You may have a case for March temps, however, I am more confident that el nino is better for March snow in SNE than la nina. Obviously its subjetive...I am talking about SNE because I live here and its a NE subforum. Maybe NNE is different, at least for my place starting with 98-99 (SN expressed as percent of average): ENSO Mar. SN n Strong Nino 38% 1 (15-16) Mod. Nino 28% 2 Weak Nino 111% 4 La Nada 74% 7 Weak Nina 166% 4 (March 2001 is my snowiest month here - 55.5") Mod. Nina 108% 4 Strong Nina none yet It's similar here as well but as me and @40/70 Benchmark discussed it's very subjective. We average ~7-8" in March so going back to 96 here it is for us in terms of average for each ENSO state. I used the ONI data. ENSO 2 Strong Nino : 9.8" 2 Mod Nino: 5.2" (We got Trace in 2010 and 10.4" in 2003 so the avg of 2 is below) 5 Weak Nino including 2014-15: 5.8" 5 La Nada: 9.5" 5 Weak Nina: 4.5" 2 Mod Nina: 8.1" 4 Strong Nina: 11.5" Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites