Winter 2020-2021

[weathafella]

2 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Avatar change?

Not since 2001 for me...

[Go Kart Mozart]

That's weird.  On my screen I am seeing a pic of a 40ish year old man with glasses, no more western-guy.

[mreaves]

16 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

That's weird.  On my screen I am seeing a pic of a 40ish year old man with glasses, no more western-guy.

?

[ORH_wxman]

12 hours ago, weathafella said:

You probably mean February?

Nope, Jan 2006 had over 2 feet at ORH...a couple solid warning events (Jan 2-3 and Jan 23) mixed with a couple smaller ones.

[Go Kart Mozart]

2 hours ago, mreaves said:

?

OK, I am back to seeing the "western guy", at least on my work computer.  That was weird.  It looked like a pic of the judge from the old TV show Night Court.  I will have to check my laptop when I get home.

[MJO812]

People are already getting hyped on social media for the 1st half of December in the east.

 

Eps  looks really good for the 1st week of December  with a big pna spike. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

People are already getting hyped on social media for the 1st half of December in the east.

 

Eps  looks really good for the 1st week of December  with a big pna spike. 

There isn't any cold air for the PNA to tap, though....that may work during the heart of winter, but it won't in early December....at least not for I95.

[J Paul Gordon]

Oh sure it can, at least where you are. We get monster slop/snow/ice storms in some scenarios under a regime like this even early in December. Maybe especially early in December. Ice storms especially. A transitory Quebec High can sometimes do wonders.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

Oh sure it can, at least where you are. We get monster slop/snow/ice storms in some scenarios under a regime like this even early in December. Maybe especially early in December. Ice storms especially. A transitory Quebec High can sometimes do wonders.

There needs to be a cold source......the high is the vehicle for the cold. Worcester hills could probably pull it off, sure.

[J Paul Gordon]

28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There needs to be a cold source......the high is the vehicle for the cold. Worcester hills could probably pull it off, sure.

Tolland Massiff and NE/NW CT, NW RI, along 95-495 belt northeastward. Sometime interior SE MA can get a good icing in that kind situation in a generally BAH HUMBUG pattern. Have to count the little blessings in the midst of the larger storm.

[ORH_wxman]

We could pull something off in first week of December if it is well-timed but I'm definitely not expecting it. It would serve us well to wait for at least a little bit of EPO-easing. We don't need a nuclear ridge there, but we need enough to flush the putrid dreck out of Canada.

[40/70 Benchmark]

SO MEI value held at -1.2

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

[tamarack]

8 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Nope, Jan 2006 had over 2 feet at ORH...a couple solid warning events (Jan 2-3 and Jan 23) mixed with a couple smaller ones.

Had 24.6" here, which thanks to the thaws could only raise the pack from 4" to 11 - winter's "peak" as Feb 1 onward yielded only 7.8" compared to my 45" average for that half of winter.  That's my only snow season since NNJ (1967-68) that never had even a 6" event.

[raindancewx]

On the old MEI data, 1954, 1964, 1988 are probably the closest matches to 2020, along with 2007. 

Snow patterns that are similar nationally in the Fall have tended to "look" like 2007 (it's like a blend of 1947-48/1996-97) somewhat after Nov 20, with the Plains usually getting hosed for snow somewhere. It's a mixed signal for most of the US, but I'd say overall still favors New England, Midwest & West, with NYC-Chicago on the edge, and areas south below average.

 

[raindancewx]

[Chrisrotary12]

So that’s the end of winter 2020-2021 right? Last two winter’s ended after the first storm right?

[It's Always Sunny]

I see some warming over Siberia...could have some implications for end of this month or early next year.

[Snowy Hibbo]

The not so bad climatic driver conditions for ENSO and QBO and the potential for a SSW show me potential for a pretty nice winter for New England in my latest winter outlook  

https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2020/12/06/north-america-winter-outlook-2020-21/

 

[Mothman]

It's dead in here. What a boring stretch. Models look to continue a zonal theme for the extended. That can be good...I guess I gotta hold out till April again to get anything good

[tamarack]

Copied 40/70 from the December thread.

Oh, okay. Well, my point was that el nino winters are usually more back loaded for SNE than la nina, but the caveat being that that maybe mostly due to February. You may have a case for March temps, however, I am more confident that el nino is better for March snow in SNE than la nina. Obviously its subjetive...I am talking about SNE because I live here and its a NE subforum.

Maybe NNE is different, at least for my place starting with 98-99 (SN expressed as percent of average):
ENSO             Mar. SN   n
Strong Nino     38%      1 (15-16)
Mod. Nino        28%      2
Weak Nino      111%     4
La Nada            74%      7
Weak Nina      166%     4   (March 2001 is my snowiest month here - 55.5")
Mod. Nina       108%     4
Strong Nina    none yet

[Snowstorms]

40 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Copied 40/70 from the December thread.

Oh, okay. Well, my point was that el nino winters are usually more back loaded for SNE than la nina, but the caveat being that that maybe mostly due to February. You may have a case for March temps, however, I am more confident that el nino is better for March snow in SNE than la nina. Obviously its subjetive...I am talking about SNE because I live here and its a NE subforum.

Maybe NNE is different, at least for my place starting with 98-99 (SN expressed as percent of average):
ENSO             Mar. SN   n
Strong Nino     38%      1 (15-16)
Mod. Nino        28%      2
Weak Nino      111%     4
La Nada            74%      7
Weak Nina      166%     4   (March 2001 is my snowiest month here - 55.5")
Mod. Nina       108%     4
Strong Nina    none yet

It's similar here as well but as me and @40/70 Benchmark discussed it's very subjective. We average ~7-8" in March so going back to 96 here it is for us in terms of average for each ENSO state. I used the ONI data. 

ENSO

2 Strong Nino :  9.8" 

2 Mod Nino: 5.2" (We got Trace in 2010 and 10.4" in 2003 so the avg of 2 is below)

5 Weak Nino including 2014-15: 5.8"

5 La Nada: 9.5"

5 Weak Nina:  4.5"

2 Mod Nina: 8.1"

4 Strong Nina: 11.5"