Snowy Hibbo

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About Snowy Hibbo

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    Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.

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  1. Lel, it’s probably used more here in Australia.
  2. https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2020/01/22/north-america-on-the-long-term-22nd-jan-2/ The latest blog update for long term snowfall prospects for North America from my perspective. PNW/BC/Northern Rockies to remain good for the next fortnight, reducing in the second week of Feb. California/the SW/Southern Rockies to improve for the latter half of February (maybe a bit earlier) Eastern US expected to improve for the last 15-20 days of February (2nd-3rd weeks of Feb, possibly into the 4th week) IMO. These impacts may be reduced/weakened by Arctic influence, etc.
  3. https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2020/01/22/north-america-on-the-long-term-22nd-jan-2/ The latest blog update for long term snowfall prospects for North America from my perspective. PNW/BC/Northern Rockies to remain good for the next fortnight, reducing in the second week of Feb. California/the SW/Southern Rockies to improve for the latter half of February (maybe a bit earlier) Eastern US expected to improve for the last 15-20 days of February (2nd-3rd weeks of Feb, possibly into the 4th week) IMO. These impacts may be reduced/weakened by Arctic influence, etc.
  4. https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2020/01/22/north-america-on-the-long-term-22nd-jan-2/ The latest blog update for long term snowfall prospects for North America from my perspective. PNW/BC/Northern Rockies to remain good for the next fortnight, reducing in the second week of Feb. California/the SW/Southern Rockies to improve for the latter half of February (maybe a bit earlier) Eastern US expected to improve for the last 15-20 days of February (2nd-3rd weeks of Feb, possibly into the 4th week) IMO. These impacts may be reduced/weakened by Arctic influence, etc.
  5. https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2019/12/30/north-america-on-the-long-term-30th-december/ Looking like a decent chance of snowy weather for the region around the 6th-9th of January, then ridging through mid-January. Potential for more snowfall in early February, per the pattern cycle. More details on the drivers and analysis above
  6. https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2019/12/30/north-america-on-the-long-term-30th-december/ For New England, I’d expect ridging for the region for mid-January, with the latter half of the month being more conducive to some snowfall activity further north in New England. Potential for snowfall further southwards later in the month, and into February.
  7. The latest conclusions from my North American long term outlook: After the New Year, we should see deeper cold risks per the GWO cycle for the Central and Eastern North American regions. The short term good pattern over the Eastern US will dissipate into ridging in the latter half of December. It might get more interesting in the days prior to January, with the aforementioned colder risk in Jan. This doesn’t mean there is no chance of snowfall, rather it is more limited. After the current short term Southern US snowfall risk, chances will be lower until January, or at least the last week of December. More details here: https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2019/12/09/north-america-on-the-long-term-9th-december/
  8. The latest conclusions from my North American long term outlook: After the New Year, we should see deeper cold risks per the GWO cycle for the Central and Eastern North American regions. The short term good pattern over the Eastern US will dissipate into ridging in the latter half of December. It might get more interesting in the days prior to January, with the aforementioned colder risk in Jan. This doesn’t mean there is no chance of snowfall, rather it is more limited. After the current short term Southern US snowfall risk, chances will be lower until January, or at least the last week of December. More details here: https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2019/12/09/north-america-on-the-long-term-9th-december/
  9. I’d say for New England roughly: Average-mildly below average for Dec. Similar, maybe a bit colder for Jan. Below average temps in Feb. I’m going with a reasonably good wider Christmas/NY period (mid-late Dec, maybe into Jan) and improving snow conditions after a potential SSW in mid Jan-Feb at this point. This of course changes.
  10. Yes unfortunately. I guess it’s probably more interesting for me to look at your snowfall chances, than the hot summer ahead for myself
  11. Hey guys, here is my final seasonal forecast for North America that includes forecasts for the entire continent including down in the SE. I favour average-mildly above average snowfall for the Carolinas and better further inland you go as well. https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2019/11/10/north-american-winter-outlook-2019-20/ In terms of your short-term forecast, I can only offer the latest in the EC model, that doesn’t look bad. It’s all subject to minor mesoscale trends inevitably, which will pinpoint exact snowfall amounts and locations
  12. Thanks You could argue a lot things about ENSO this winter. Neutral. Weak Modoki (which is what I see). It’s still quite Nina-esque in the extratropics. And some people are calling it a “solid Nino”. But honestly and I try and convey this in the outlook with the use of other drivers, it’s not awfully important the exact definitions of the ENSO at an oceanic level.
  13. G’day everyone. I would just like to present my final seasonal outlook for the North America, which includes driver discussion and analysis for patterns that run downstream to the Tennessee Valley. And it’s looking pretty cold and snowy down your way IMO https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2019/11/10/north-american-winter-outlook-2019-20/ And it’s probably why the region is getting forecasts of snowfall this early. - Snowy Hibbo
  14. It’s interesting that those SOI drops occurred while the MJO phase/signal was still over Maritime Continent. You could certainly argue a Nino-esque tropical atmosphere at least at the surface, because that’s certainly not how it is panning out in the extratropics, with a lack of momentum being quite obvious in the GSDM.
  15. https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2019/11/10/north-american-winter-outlook-2019-20/ So here is my final write-up for the North American winter. Analysis throughout of course, and results/conclusions towards the bottom. Comments are welcome.