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About Ace

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    Englewood, NJ

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  1. Ace

    Best Wx Model Package

    Agreed. Lots of people have been posting images from weathermodels.com on Twitter lately. I have heard good things about truewx.com as well
  2. Ace

    Major Hurricane Michael

    The 12Z HWRF has trended a bit slower which has been the trend for four straight runs. Gets it to 938mb too which is a bit stronger as well
  3. Ace

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Looks like Recon found 109 knot FL winds which may be the high so far
  4. Ace

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Michael looks like its ready to take off. Cold cloud tops wrapped around its center and more symmetrical
  5. After impressive warmth this week, looks like any cooldown will be brief as the temporary Western Ridge moves east past Day 10.
  6. Above average temperatures are on tap for the next two weeks as persistent troughs sets up over the West Coast. Btw, need a new subscription service for the winter. Weatherbell or Stormvista?
  7. Day 3 Slight from SPC...impressive. Lapse rates suck though.
  8. Ace

    Meteorological Fall 2018 Banter

    Good to see the forum back!
  9. Cape on the increase. Forcing was looking like an issue, but small cells are popping in New Jersey. Timing may be a bit off though, since the most conductive parameters for rotation may came an hour or 2 after storms roll though. I'm thinking SE NY should get the best storms in a couple of hours.
  10. Great to have you as part of our subforum OHweather! It is well known that around these parts that warm fronts in the morning have some of our best storms. I think this has good potential. Attached is a sounding of the latest HRRR in New Jersey at 16Z. Check out those LCL's! Overall 3k Nam is a bit similar. This could be a good shot of severe around here as for the mid morning to early afternoon timeframe. At least were not going to watch storms weakening as they travel from west to east as they tend to do most of the time
  11. Yes I just saw it after I posted lol. We will have to wait and see how the radar looks tomorrow to determine northern extent, etc.
  12. I wouldn't be that confident of a good Sunday in your area in Middlesex County. GFS and RGEM has slowly trended north today and the NAM has stayed consistent. Northern New Jersey may be spared, but its not looking good from Central Jersey southward. Upton has my area here in NE Jersey reaching 78 degrees tomorrow with party sunny skies. I think I'll take the under on that with clouds being more of an issue and rain may creep in too.
  13. Ace

    may 10-16 convection

    Pretty decent setup for tomorrow. Shear and cape looks good. Laspe rates being shown by modeling for tomorrow are a rarity around these parts and is what catches my eyes the most
  14. Ace

    April 7-8 2018 jinx

    The 0Z GFS and the Canadian guidance (GGEM and RGEM) have a much more consolidated coastal low and is therefore more closer to the coast. Trends at H5 are interesting to say the least. We'll see what the Euro says later. Nevertheless because of the northern stream orientation across SE Canada there is a definitely a limit on how much further west it can go. If we were to get impacted by this storm, it would be more towards the day on Sunday. Chances of even getting a small impact from this system are pretty slim I would say, but still needs to be watched.
  15. Ace

    April 2nd Snow Wave

    I have about the same or a bit more next door to you in Englewood. Looks like most on here are doing reasonably well. Nice little event and should be wrapping up soon!