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    Englewood, NJ
  1. You're right. I jumped the gun a bit. Vastly different than prior runs though.
  2. Lol looks like heavy snow near NYC at 21z on Tuesday on the NAM
  3. Looks like the GGEM looks like the RGEM. A close miss for the metro area. As it stands right now most models (NAM, RGEM, GGEM) have a good 500mb look. We still have 2 days to for adjustments to occur for a better result for the metro area. Not a terrible position to be in.
  4. The 0Z extended Rgem looks like a close miss. Not too bad
  5. Yeah you can definitely see the shift in confluence in SE Canada. It pretty much forces everything south from 18Z.
  6. Regardless of the solution, it is the second straight run in which the low pressure is intense and stalls for a good period of time just off the east coast. Not exiting stage right like some other models. H5 looks amazing.
  7. Very strange. Maybe someone more knowledgeable can discuss. The confluence is a bit stronger, but I don't know if the synoptics would lead to this depiction.
  8. This is gonna be a bomb. We might have mixing issues...
  9. This trend from the 12Z run to now has been great
  10. The second shortwave being slower vs 18Z made the difference. If it was not slower, then this would have been shunted east.
  11. We'll see how it turns out, but I do believe it will be closer to its 18Z depiction than its 12Z depiction.
  12. This is probably gonna be another money run. 0Z Nam has the second shortwave hanging back some more vs 18Z.
  13. Storm details will be ironed out over the next few days, but what has been apparent is the availability of more low level cold air while mid level temperatures may be more questionable in comparison to our previous storms this month. Obviously low pressure proximity and precipitation rates will go a long way in dictating precipitation types, but this will be something to keep in mind as we go forward. EDIT: The first storm of this month had toasty midlevel temperatures as well.
  14. RGEM at 72 hours. Looks like it stalls at this point because its at the same spot 12 hours later. Don't have precipitation yet.
  15. Backside energy looking real good on the 18Z NAM so far.