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Ace

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About Ace

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    Englewood, NJ

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  1. Day 3 Slight from SPC...impressive. Lapse rates suck though.
  2. Ace

    Meteorological Fall 2018 Banter

    Good to see the forum back!
  3. Cape on the increase. Forcing was looking like an issue, but small cells are popping in New Jersey. Timing may be a bit off though, since the most conductive parameters for rotation may came an hour or 2 after storms roll though. I'm thinking SE NY should get the best storms in a couple of hours.
  4. Great to have you as part of our subforum OHweather! It is well known that around these parts that warm fronts in the morning have some of our best storms. I think this has good potential. Attached is a sounding of the latest HRRR in New Jersey at 16Z. Check out those LCL's! Overall 3k Nam is a bit similar. This could be a good shot of severe around here as for the mid morning to early afternoon timeframe. At least were not going to watch storms weakening as they travel from west to east as they tend to do most of the time
  5. Yes I just saw it after I posted lol. We will have to wait and see how the radar looks tomorrow to determine northern extent, etc.
  6. I wouldn't be that confident of a good Sunday in your area in Middlesex County. GFS and RGEM has slowly trended north today and the NAM has stayed consistent. Northern New Jersey may be spared, but its not looking good from Central Jersey southward. Upton has my area here in NE Jersey reaching 78 degrees tomorrow with party sunny skies. I think I'll take the under on that with clouds being more of an issue and rain may creep in too.
  7. Ace

    may 10-16 convection

    Pretty decent setup for tomorrow. Shear and cape looks good. Laspe rates being shown by modeling for tomorrow are a rarity around these parts and is what catches my eyes the most
  8. Ace

    April 7-8 2018 jinx

    The 0Z GFS and the Canadian guidance (GGEM and RGEM) have a much more consolidated coastal low and is therefore more closer to the coast. Trends at H5 are interesting to say the least. We'll see what the Euro says later. Nevertheless because of the northern stream orientation across SE Canada there is a definitely a limit on how much further west it can go. If we were to get impacted by this storm, it would be more towards the day on Sunday. Chances of even getting a small impact from this system are pretty slim I would say, but still needs to be watched.
  9. Ace

    April 2nd Snow Wave

    I have about the same or a bit more next door to you in Englewood. Looks like most on here are doing reasonably well. Nice little event and should be wrapping up soon!
  10. The GFS and GGEM are suppressed for next weekend. Not surprising with that upper level low in SE Canada hanging back a bit more. Less separation between our two key players means suppression city
  11. Ace

    April 2nd Snow Wave

    Lol . All of our snowstorms are nowcast situations unless we have a weak clipper and even those can suprise. Models can give us general details and a decent idea of what is going to happen. However, hammering out specifics is tough to do unless the storm is happening at the moment. Banding features can be difficult to pinpoint where they are gonna end up. Even across small distances we can have drastic differences in rates.
  12. Ace

    April 2nd Snow Wave

    Yeah definitely. RGEM dampens the storm as it moves east pretty drastically leading to the low precipitation totals. I believe NJwx85 mentioned it before, but its been erratic this winter. Should be a fun morning for those of us that get lucky and get into those higher rates
  13. Ace

    April 2nd Snow Wave

    Its been unimpressive for this event for awhile although this run cut down the totals for central Jersey a good bit. Not too sure what to make of it, but considering radar trends, NAM's consistency, short range model depictions, I won't put too much weight on it.
  14. Ace

    April 2nd Snow Wave

    I agree 100%. Wherever this split occurs there is gonna be some unhappy weenies. Take a look at the FGEN showed by the 12KM Nam. Looks good for our immediate area, but can easily verify a bit north.
  15. Pretty far out, but next weekend has decent potential. AO rising argues for a storm to form and the antecedent air mass is pretty good. The problem is that blocking is breaking down fast by the time this storm forms. The 12Z GFS flipped most of us over to rain because the upper level low over SE Canada moved away quickly allowing heights to raise along the east coast thereby allowing the storm to go a bit too far west for us. I'm also not a fan of the shortwave crashing into the west coast as our storm is getting going. Not the best setup, but we can work with it.
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