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Ace

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    Englewood, NJ

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  1. Yes I just saw it after I posted lol. We will have to wait and see how the radar looks tomorrow to determine northern extent, etc.
  2. I wouldn't be that confident of a good Sunday in your area in Middlesex County. GFS and RGEM has slowly trended north today and the NAM has stayed consistent. Northern New Jersey may be spared, but its not looking good from Central Jersey southward. Upton has my area here in NE Jersey reaching 78 degrees tomorrow with party sunny skies. I think I'll take the under on that with clouds being more of an issue and rain may creep in too.
  3. Ace

    may 10-16 convection

    Pretty decent setup for tomorrow. Shear and cape looks good. Laspe rates being shown by modeling for tomorrow are a rarity around these parts and is what catches my eyes the most
  4. Ace

    April 7-8 2018 jinx

    The 0Z GFS and the Canadian guidance (GGEM and RGEM) have a much more consolidated coastal low and is therefore more closer to the coast. Trends at H5 are interesting to say the least. We'll see what the Euro says later. Nevertheless because of the northern stream orientation across SE Canada there is a definitely a limit on how much further west it can go. If we were to get impacted by this storm, it would be more towards the day on Sunday. Chances of even getting a small impact from this system are pretty slim I would say, but still needs to be watched.
  5. Ace

    April 2nd Snow Wave

    I have about the same or a bit more next door to you in Englewood. Looks like most on here are doing reasonably well. Nice little event and should be wrapping up soon!
  6. The GFS and GGEM are suppressed for next weekend. Not surprising with that upper level low in SE Canada hanging back a bit more. Less separation between our two key players means suppression city
  7. Ace

    April 2nd Snow Wave

    Lol . All of our snowstorms are nowcast situations unless we have a weak clipper and even those can suprise. Models can give us general details and a decent idea of what is going to happen. However, hammering out specifics is tough to do unless the storm is happening at the moment. Banding features can be difficult to pinpoint where they are gonna end up. Even across small distances we can have drastic differences in rates.
  8. Ace

    April 2nd Snow Wave

    Yeah definitely. RGEM dampens the storm as it moves east pretty drastically leading to the low precipitation totals. I believe NJwx85 mentioned it before, but its been erratic this winter. Should be a fun morning for those of us that get lucky and get into those higher rates
  9. Ace

    April 2nd Snow Wave

    Its been unimpressive for this event for awhile although this run cut down the totals for central Jersey a good bit. Not too sure what to make of it, but considering radar trends, NAM's consistency, short range model depictions, I won't put too much weight on it.
  10. Ace

    April 2nd Snow Wave

    I agree 100%. Wherever this split occurs there is gonna be some unhappy weenies. Take a look at the FGEN showed by the 12KM Nam. Looks good for our immediate area, but can easily verify a bit north.
  11. Pretty far out, but next weekend has decent potential. AO rising argues for a storm to form and the antecedent air mass is pretty good. The problem is that blocking is breaking down fast by the time this storm forms. The 12Z GFS flipped most of us over to rain because the upper level low over SE Canada moved away quickly allowing heights to raise along the east coast thereby allowing the storm to go a bit too far west for us. I'm also not a fan of the shortwave crashing into the west coast as our storm is getting going. Not the best setup, but we can work with it.
  12. Ace

    April 2nd Snow Wave

    I'm a bit concerned that the immediate NYC metro area gets caught in subsidence/lighter rates if the heavy snow band is slightly north of us. High res models seem to be targeting Northwest Jersey and the lower Hudson Valley with the immediate NYC metro on the fringe for the best dynamics. We'll see how it plays out.
  13. Ace

    April 2nd Snow Wave

    Yep. Kinda wish this was happening a few hours earlier, but its not terrible timing.
  14. Ace

    April 2nd Snow Wave

    It really depends on where the banding sets up. The Nam and most of the models show this storm having impressive dynamics. My guess is that we see an area with close to warning level snows somewhere in the tri state area while the rest see 1 to 3 inches mostly on unpaved surfaces.
  15. Ace

    April 2nd Snow Wave

    The 12Z GFS had a minimal shift north with the precipitation, but what's noticeable is the consistent increase in the ridging in front our shortwave across all modeling. Low is a bit stronger leading to a more consolidated precipitation shield. Going to be a quick hitter, but I'll take it in April. Dynamics are actually pretty decent as well.
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