• Member Statistics

    16,105
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    corvairbob
    Newest Member
    corvairbob
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
ORH_wxman

Winter 2020-2021

Recommended Posts

5 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Why does the NAO have to go negative right now ? SMH.

You're saying this as if the -NAO were some limited resource that we have to conserve. I don't think it works that way.

  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

NAO went steeply negative in October 2009 and basically stayed that way for 15 months. It doesn’t always swing back. 

Those were the days (really up through 2013) when everyone started thinking that NAO blocking “was the new normal”. Didn’t take long for that idea to bust. 

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Lol - 

nah don't fret ...  2015's can still happen - just not so predictable... I mean that whole ordeal back during that fateful February was actually even intraseasonal in temporal scale .. The whole season wasn't really terribly below normal in temperature... And as far as snow, I remember remarking in snark back then that for a lot of cases, if it did not snow a single flake for three consecutive years immediately going forward ( which wasn't the case, just sayn' ), than those locales would in fact only be normal snow for the 5 year climate sojourn - 

Anyway, ... I'm just saying in would not surprise me to see similar playout...  some odd cold snaps early and late, with plausible snow chances ...with an extended period or something related to gradient/velocity surpluses doing weird things in DJF proper .. It would be keeping with both trend over recent years/decades, as well as actually fit other empirical based reasons - 

But we'll see...  It's going to get colder as the daylight gets dimmer - 

So actually one way of looking at your thoughts is that winters in the North will just be getting longer. If we're having unusually early and late cold snaps with snow, that's prolonging the season. In the middle of Winter, even mild and unfavorable patterns are still good for snowfalls in the North, just not solid retention. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some people asked about me about NE snow and ACE. This only seems to work in La Ninas, but the correlations are not that strong for Boston. Philly has never had a good snow year in a La Nina if the ACE is low enough, in ~14 tries. There does seem to be a soft limit in Boston around 60 inches until the ACE in a La Nina hits 130 or 140 (no values over 60" in 17 tries below 135 or so).

La-Nina-Boston-Snow-by-ACE

Similar for NYC - no seasons more than +50% for snow if the ACE is under 130-140 (in 17 tries).

La-Nina-NYC-Snow-by-ACE

Philadelphia has no good seasons with low ACE La Ninas:

Philadelphia-La-Nina-snow-by-ACE

Even last week, I was hopeful that the ACE would finish around 90 this year, but I think 95-175 is pretty safe for like a 90% confidence interval, given we'll be ~2/3 through the season end of day tomorrow and around 90 ACE. I can't imagine we'll finish with ~40 storms like we're on pace to do, but we'll see. 2007 had 15 storms and only 72 or something for ACE (~5/storm), so the ~88 for 22 is similar so far (4/storm). I should have had more faith in my tentative winter analogs over the statistical stuff, they had 135 ACE or so for 2020. NHC seems to like to name a lot of subtropical and borderline storms now, so I could see 30-35 storms named by year end, and still around 4 ace/storm.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

So actually one way of looking at your thoughts is that winters in the North will just be getting longer. If we're having unusually early and late cold snaps with snow, that's prolonging the season. In the middle of Winter, even mild and unfavorable patterns are still good for snowfalls in the North, just not solid retention. 

It'd be one way ..but unfortunately, not really what I was after  Lol. I sense the focus there is because the word snow was inciting ?

I wouldn't go so far as to characterize "...winters in the North will just be getting longer"  

Firstly the plural use of 'winters' sort of suggest a 'permanency' ... I am not intending to extend winter. You were responding to a paraphrased version of an early post, which lacking context may have sounded a certain way perhaps. 

Just making empirically based discussion points:  We have in fact observed more snow(snow supportive atmospheres) in Octobers and April ( even May ) over the last 20 years, than %-relatively combining the previous 50 years.  I was discussing climate - I'm not sure how one would logically tool an interpretation of 'winter as a season.'  Having said that... I don't think winter as a season is being necessarily extended, no, now that the idea is floated - 

What I originally intimated: the transition seasons are being marred by cold interruptions that are offsetting an otherwise warmer than normal trend, but provided a canvas for plausible-why that is taking place.  But these cold offset by virtue of happening in an above normal rest state, are making for very dramatic variances. 

I am not sure in an objective sense that means "winter" per se, as much as just means a new transition season behavior that's emerged in the last 20 .. particularly 10 years. 

The philosophy over human conventionality vs what is real in Nature comes to mind.  As the ends of season blur those temporal conventions by patterns and sensible impact... it exposes the faux conceit in calling summer summer and fall, fall, and winter winter...when the boundaries are often seamless...  I think of 70F Octobers with two packing pellet virga cu cold snaps fitted squarely into a categorization of no category - Lol...    

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It'd be one way ..but unfortunately, not really what I was after  Lol. I sense the focus there is because the word snow was inciting ?

I wouldn't go so far as to characterize "...winters in the North will just be getting longer"  

Firstly the plural use of 'winters' sort of suggest a 'permanency' ... I am not intending to extend winter. You were responding to a paraphrased version of an early post, which lacking context may have sounded a certain way perhaps. 

Just making empirically based discussion points:  We have in fact observed more snow(snow supportive atmospheres) in Octobers and April ( even May ) over the last 20 years, than %-relatively combining the previous 50 years.  I was discussing climate - I'm not sure how one would logically tool an interpretation of 'winter as a season.'  Having said that... I don't think winter as a season is being necessarily extended, no, now that the idea is floated - 

What I originally intimated: the transition seasons are being marred by cold interruptions that are offsetting an otherwise warmer than normal trend, but provided a canvas for plausible-why that is taking place.  But these cold offset by virtue of happening in an above normal rest state, are making for very dramatic variances. 

I am not sure in an objective sense that means "winter" per se, as much as just means a new transition season behavior that's emerged in the last 20 .. particularly 10 years. 

The philosophy over human conventionality vs what is real in Nature comes to mind.  As the ends of season blur those temporal conventions by patterns and sensible impact... it exposes the faux conceit in calling summer summer and fall, fall, and winter winter...when the boundaries are often seamless...  I think of 70F Octobers with two packing pellet virga cu cold snaps fitted squarely into a categorization of no category - Lol...    

 

You always have a way with words lol. I guess I could say the snow season is getting longer, not winter. But I mean...if youre saying that autumn and spring snows are increasing in frequency, i wouldn't think of it any other way than an extended snow season. Mild to warm winter patterns still produce many snow chances north of 40N. Then again...I don't necessarily agree with your entire assessment anyway so we can agree to disagree. Despite very minimal warming here locally during winter, I wouldn't call anything a trend. Less than 10 years ago we were in a stretch of very heavy snowfall during the winter months but unusually paltry Novembers. Yes the past handful of years have seen some impressive early and late snows but I wouldn't call anything a trend yet. I think some attribute far too much to climate change when it comes to the ever changing weather. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

here in NY the two best winters of my life have been la nina's...1995-96 and 2010-11...the two worst winters were el nino's...1972-73 and 1997-98...a typical horrid winter like last winter was an el nino winter...la nina has seen its share of clunkers but were colder on average and clunkers were around 12" for a season while el nino clunkers averaged under 10"

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

You always have a way with words lol. I guess I could say the snow season is getting longer, not winter. But I mean...if youre saying that autumn and spring snows are increasing in frequency, i wouldn't think of it any other way than an extended snow season. Mild to warm winter patterns still produce many snow chances north of 40N. Then again...I don't necessarily agree with your entire assessment anyway so we can agree to disagree. Despite very minimal warming here locally during winter, I wouldn't call anything a trend. Less than 10 years ago we were in a stretch of very heavy snowfall during the winter months but unusually paltry Novembers. Yes the past handful of years have seen some impressive early and late snows but I wouldn't call anything a trend yet. I think some attribute far too much to climate change when it comes to the ever changing weather. 

Part of all that  ?  ... we need bigger sample sizes...sure.   However, this is a bit different than a 'black-box' series of values coming out of a system we no nothing about, and then having to assess the significance of a series of aberrant values. 

We see other systemic morphology lending to causality. Such as speedier flows in increased hypsometric gradients between 35 N and 70 N in winters... As well, taller hypsometric ridge altitudes in summer... These are happening concurrently more so, with the advent or increasing frequency of snow in early and late.  That sort of begs a causal link there, ...certainly suspicion.

It's also counter-intuitive because higher heights should mean warmth...but, the increased wind is causing the flow to tip S over Canada early and late... due to the continental atmospheric bulge being enhanced in the rest-state PNAP.   ...

Anyway, it helps reduce the uncertainty of randomness when a driving mechanism can be identified - even though there's still supposition and theoretical debate there too. ugh -

I just mean there's really no such thing as seasons ... not really.  These are human conventions ... it's what we do as engineering, math-solving and language orchestrating artistic species, we fancifully create 'boundaries' and domain spaces out of reality.  But reality is really more like cloud technology in a sense...

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 9/18/2020 at 5:17 PM, MJO812 said:

Why does the NAO have to go negative right now ? SMH.

C7122E91-C383-4493-BD42-C67ECA463ABB.thumb.gif.1847a7c80df20aee7399c68f579b75d1.gif

Because the Hadley cell. At least I think that's what Tip told me over in the September thread. I mused about how recent fall seasons from mid-September to mid-November the last few years featured winter-like patterns with continuous low pressures passing near or through the northeast bringing us bountiful rain opportunities which had they been 3 months later would have been a weenies dream.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Because the Hadley cell. At least I think that's what Tip told me over in the September thread. I mused about how recent fall seasons from mid-September to mid-November the last few years featured winter-like patterns with continuous low pressures passing near or through the northeast bringing us bountiful rain opportunities which had they been 3 months later would have been a weenies dream.

Suppositionally - yes.. 

The NAO could be "transitively" influenced...   

What we know:  The HC is expanded(ing) ... as I've outlined before and it can be found here: https://science2017.globalchange.gov/     ... note, this publication may be getting onwards to a couple years old, so it may be mirrored and or sophisticated further by follow-up efforts that I am less than aware of - will leave that to the reader research using the "stellar trustworth WWW" that the "intrinsically ethical nature of man" hasn't by any means corrupted -ha.. 

Anyway, right off the bat .. conceptually, 'what in hades does the Hadley Cell have to do with the NAO, considering the latter domain space is N of the Hadley..?'    

Directly?  nothing...  Indirectly?  perhaps - 

The expanding HC causing higher winds in the westerlies ( because there's more in situ gradients between 30N and 70 N in the general hemisphere...), would tend to augment the rest state PNAP structure... Which returning to 101 Synoptics, that features a modest ridge over the terrain of western N/A and a coupled, modest trough down stream over the east.  This has to do with forced topographical ascent, turning right by Coriolis ... .and that causes UVM and ridging to evolve...   Naturally, if we enhance the westerlies...it is conceptually acceptable to assume these orientations would also be augmented.

So, we have a slightly exaggerated ridge it the west, ... coupling wave/balancing we have increasing trough tendencies in the east... Down streams of troughs... we have the transitive higher height response ... and that ignites the -NAO ... 

But this gets complicated/washed out, as the season grows deeper into winter, and said gradient gets rather extreme... It's like we sinusoidally go the other way with so much maelstrom and high velocity, the balancing locks into the next sign - viola!  +PNA winters... with very high velocities situates the NAO blocks east or zonal... tending to reduce the west-based variant. 

Not all the time... no. but as a base line...?   mmm

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm excited for this season's outlook. My process will be a little bit different this season, as I am going to supply links to background information throughout the finished product, so that folks can actually read the damn thing. The previous format was mind numbing, and I appreciate that many of you pointed that out.

@Ginx snewx had a great suggestion to link the basic background information, which I am implementing in a series of addendums detailing major atmospheric drivers.

Addendum one is ENSO.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/09/winter-outlook-2020-2021-addendum-1.html

I am really starting to hone in my thoughts early this season and will have more season specific information out tonight.

  • Like 7
  • Weenie 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm excited for this season's outlook. My process will be a little bit different this season, as I am going to supply links to background information throughout the finished product, so that folks can actually read the damn thing. The previous format was mind numbing, and I appreciate that many of you pointed that out.

@Ginx snewx had a great suggestion to link the basic background information, which I am implementing in a series of addendums detailing major atmospheric drivers.

Addendum one is ENSO.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/09/winter-outlook-2020-2021-addendum-1.html

I am really starting to hone in my thoughts early this season and will have more season specific information out tonight.

always in awe of what you produce and grateful to have a chance to see it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm excited for this season's outlook. My process will be a little bit different this season, as I am going to supply links to background information throughout the finished product, so that folks can actually read the damn thing. The previous format was mind numbing, and I appreciate that many of you pointed that out.

@Ginx snewx had a great suggestion to link the basic background information, which I am implementing in a series of addendums detailing major atmospheric drivers.

Addendum one is ENSO.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/09/winter-outlook-2020-2021-addendum-1.html

I am really starting to hone in my thoughts early this season and will have more season specific information out tonight.

How much of a monkey wrench do you think this may throw into things?

 

  • Weenie 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm excited for this season's outlook. My process will be a little bit different this season, as I am going to supply links to background information throughout the finished product, so that folks can actually read the damn thing. The previous format was mind numbing, and I appreciate that many of you pointed that out.

@Ginx snewx had a great suggestion to link the basic background information, which I am implementing in a series of addendums detailing major atmospheric drivers.

Addendum one is ENSO.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/09/winter-outlook-2020-2021-addendum-1.html

I am really starting to hone in my thoughts early this season and will have more season specific information out tonight.

Ray, like many others have stated, look forward to your outlook and "first call/final call" etc enjoyable read...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not so preliminary thoughts....but looong was from anything definitive. I offer up composites as coalesce my thoughts throughout the fall. Not at all a forecast.

This is evolving quickly IMO.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/09/structural-changes-observed-in.html

Torch! Mild and dry enroute 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not so preliminary thoughts....but looong was from anything definitive. I offer up composites as coalesce my thoughts throughout the fall. Not at all a forecast.

This is evolving quickly IMO.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/09/structural-changes-observed-in.html

Very Impressive job. Obviously took you a lot of time and effort. Interesting write up

  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Torch! Mild and dry enroute 

 

Slowly we see the evolution of Dews Kevin into winter Kevin.  Added bonus this year with the implicit reverse jinx mild and dry cry....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The 500 mb composite seems to indicate a combination of some decent years (1965, 2009) and some :axe:  years. Let's hope it's at least much better than last year. Well done and good luck Ray!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Missed on the big December snow last year but ended up with an avg winter, Depending on ENSO, We should be ok again this year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

While the hindsight composite could reflect that, it doesn't mean we can't get a good stretch....especially early. Also keep in mind that the dry stretch haas to end at some point.

I tend to agree. December can be good. Perhaps even like Dec 80 and then ends quickly 

IMO we are in a mid 1960’s type of drought . Long term

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You should be in a better spot than most of us in SNE.

Yeah, I think so, If not, I can find a better one quite easily with minimal travel.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.