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ORH_wxman

Winter 2020-2021

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This whole year has been severely dry 

Not severe.  Sorry but 25% below normal is just not severe..  lol...lawns aren’t the drought marker.

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4 hours ago, PhineasC said:

I'm thinking I should root for a dominant northern stream parade of clippers.

They're underrated ...

Most people think of "Colorado Low" model transits through the heartland .. .Or straight up southern stream lows/QPF messes that run up and over a cold dome ...always special... Or S/stream waves that 'get captured' and phase - but that's/those are rare and getting rarer in a fast hemisphere anomaly that's become decadal or longer as a climate bias ...etc.  

But I'll take a potent 42 unit v-max cutting across S NJ with a concurrent upstream PNAP in progress any day.  And that's the extreme version ... you don't even have to have that perfect a set up ...even flat waves with strong jet maxes can NJ Model the hell out of a nuke ... Dec 2005 is a superb example.

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9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

They're underrated ...

Most people think of "Colorado Low" model transits through the heartland .. .Or straight up southern stream lows/QPF messes that run up and over a cold dome ...always special... Or S/stream waves that 'get captured' and phase - but that's/those are rare and getting rarer in a fast hemisphere anomaly that's become decadal or longer as a climate bias ...etc.  

But I'll take a potent 42 unit v-max cutting across S NJ with a concurrent upstream PNAP in progress any day.  And that's the extreme version ... you don't even have to have that perfect a set up ...even flat waves with strong jet maxes can NJ Model the hell out of a nuke ... Dec 2005 is a superb example.

The funny thing is I could tell Phineas was seething when I was in full weenie mode for that clipper dumping a widespread 6+ 12/31/08.  Must have been pre sub forums and he was annoyed from MD.

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1 minute ago, weathafella said:

The funny thing is I could tell Phineas was seething when I was in full weenie mode for that clipper dumping a widespread 6+ 12/31/08.  Must have been pre sub forums and he was annoyed from MD.

I decided instead of getting mad I'd just leapfrog the issue altogether. :) 

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24 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I decided instead of getting mad I'd just leapfrog the issue altogether. :) 

Well now we’re in the same region but your snow should be double mine.   Gonna spend some time in the next 6 months checking out snowy locations close enough to medical care...lol.

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My gut feeling says this will be a pretty good winter, but COVID might stop us from fully enjoying it. My main concern is how safe it is to stay at a hotel or AirBnB for any ski weekend in NNE.

Based on last winter, which was practically a repeat of 2001-02 and unimpressive even by the standards of my old home, going the extra distance to NNE was worth it just about every single time. It was not too bad up there.

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Looking at the NPAC I feel encouraged.   Warming in the GOAK, Warming also in the PDO region.  As of this moment, we could be heading into a big winter if all these trends continue.

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13 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Looking at the NPAC I feel encouraged.   Warming in the GOAK, Warming also in the PDO region.  As of this moment, we could be heading into a big winter if all these trends continue.

It’s an early signaler but I suspect we run into gradient saturation and similar neggie interference patterning as it gets deeper ..,

Quickstart —> stalls and may be a late push ... been recurring theme  

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27 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It’s an early signaler but I suspect we run into gradient saturation and similar neggie interference patterning as it gets deeper ..,

Quickstart —> stalls and may be a late push ... been recurring theme  

Wouldn't the warm pool in the Pacific encourage more ridging towards the Aleutians and even further east towards the EPO domain? A -PDO combined with a Nina would allow for more ridging across the Aleutians and Alaska, no? 2008-09 had an impressive North Pacific ridge that was poleward. Dec 08-Jan 09 wasn't crazy cold in the east, but it was persistent nonetheless. Locally we only had 2 days above freezing in Jan 09. 

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13 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Wouldn't the warm pool in the Pacific encourage more ridging towards the Aleutians and even further east towards the EPO domain? A -PDO combined with a Nina would allow for more ridging across the Aleutians and Alaska, no? 2008-09 had an impressive North Pacific ridge that was poleward. Dec 08-Jan 09 wasn't crazy cold in the east, but it was persistent nonetheless. Locally we only had 2 days above freezing in Jan 09. 

You want aleutians troughing vs ridging,  Ridging further East into the main body of AK is preferable and that’s what the ssta is signaling now....but will it stay?

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If you try to reconcile trends in the QBO and trends in the ENSO pattern year/year you get the same outlook as my actual (tentative) winter analogs more or less. Last year the y/y trend in Nino 3.4 and the QBO matched with 2004, and the winter was pretty similar, so I think I have the right idea for what to expect this year given that the QBO/ENSO trend blend matches my analogs. The up/down you see is whether the QBO trend was moving up or down from the prior month. You can see each trend was the same for Jan-Aug in 2004 and 2019, and the ENSO trend was El Nino after warm Nino 3.4. I think the ENSO trend matters a lot, because 2002 was actually a very close QBO/ENSO match, but it had a very different prior year ENSO. So 2019-20 looked nothing like 2002-03 nationally.

These are from my winter outlook draft -

QBO-Trend-Matches-2.png

Something like this for 2020-21. I'l refine it if September comes in very different on the monthly QBO index though.

QBO-Trend-Matches-1.png

You can see, the trend in each month in the blended average matches 2020. So you'd expect the QBO to be around +6 for September, or at least higher than August. The year over year ENSO drop is probably more like 27.1 to 25.5 than 27.9 to 26.1, but it's close enough. I went with a blend because the La Nina / near La Nina +QBO winters following El Ninos are all pretty poor matches for either QBO intensity, or monthly trends. 1966 is way out for -QBO intensity early on. 1973 has the wrong month/month trend in most months. 1980 was trending up all year, so the timing is off. 1998 is off a lot by timing and magnitude. So the best matches are 2010 and 2016, but even they aren't that strong really. We're not going to see the 3C drop off in Nino 3.4 those two years had, and the 2020 QBO is way more positive each month compared to 2010. 

QBO-Trend-Matches-3.png

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On 9/11/2020 at 6:47 AM, UnitedWx said:

That December '92 storm was one I'll never forget. I thought I was dreaming! We couldn't even get our Christmas tree from our normal source because it closed down the tree farm in Riverton CT because of the depth and significant drifting.

Now there's a location I had to google...

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1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

Had to borrow from MA thread. 

Half of CT likes la Nina half likes El nino.

Maine really likes neutral.

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56 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Had to borrow from MA thread. 

Half of CT likes la Nina half likes El nino.

Maine really likes neutral.

Going by snow at PWM/CAR/Farmington, weak Nino and weak/moderate Nina have done better than neutral.

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13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The methodology looked to be temps, than precip. Not sure if that is the best way to gauge. 

Either way, you can see how confused it is in Northeast and New England... supporting the idea that other factors matter more than ENSO, or at least that the signal is fairly muted and could go either way.

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Either way, you can see how confused it is in Northeast and New England... supporting the idea that other factors matter more than ENSO, or at least that the signal is fairly muted and could go either way.

I enjoy the research that folks put into it but just bring me AN precip and we’ll roll the dice. I really don’t care what enso, qbo, solar spots, or alien invasions are being predicted....precip with just enough cold works. 

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10 hours ago, raindancewx said:

If you try to reconcile trends in the QBO and trends in the ENSO pattern year/year you get the same outlook as my actual (tentative) winter analogs more or less. Last year the y/y trend in Nino 3.4 and the QBO matched with 2004, and the winter was pretty similar, so I think I have the right idea for what to expect this year given that the QBO/ENSO trend blend matches my analogs. The up/down you see is whether the QBO trend was moving up or down from the prior month. You can see each trend was the same for Jan-Aug in 2004 and 2019, and the ENSO trend was El Nino after warm Nino 3.4. I think the ENSO trend matters a lot, because 2002 was actually a very close QBO/ENSO match, but it had a very different prior year ENSO. So 2019-20 looked nothing like 2002-03 nationally.

These are from my winter outlook draft -

QBO-Trend-Matches-2.png

Something like this for 2020-21. I'l refine it if September comes in very different on the monthly QBO index though.

QBO-Trend-Matches-1.png

You can see, the trend in each month in the blended average matches 2020. So you'd expect the QBO to be around +6 for September, or at least higher than August. The year over year ENSO drop is probably more like 27.1 to 25.5 than 27.9 to 26.1, but it's close enough. I went with a blend because the La Nina / near La Nina +QBO winters following El Ninos are all pretty poor matches for either QBO intensity, or monthly trends. 1966 is way out for -QBO intensity early on. 1973 has the wrong month/month trend in most months. 1980 was trending up all year, so the timing is off. 1998 is off a lot by timing and magnitude. So the best matches are 2010 and 2016, but even they aren't that strong really. We're not going to see the 3C drop off in Nino 3.4 those two years had, and the 2020 QBO is way more positive each month compared to 2010. 

QBO-Trend-Matches-3.png

Last winter was nothing like 2004-2005 for the northeast in terms of snowfall.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Right.....most disparate with snowfall, though....2005 wasn't that cold, but near normal.

I know a lot of the country was warm, but we had our own weenie pocket. 

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'04-'05 and last year took totally different paths too after December...last winter, December was extremely wet with near normal temps and then a blowtorch/dry rest of the winter....while '04-'05 was consistently pretty wet and not warm the whole winter.

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Right.....most disparate with snowfall, though....2005 wasn't that cold, but near normal.

2004-05 had several cold snaps too. Most of Jan 2005 was pretty cold. Last winter was devoid of any cold. We also got 65" locally. 

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I have to say, I am very confused on what exactly looks to happen here in northern Connecticut.  As long as it is NOT like last year ( early December was awesome though ) the rest of the year sucked, then I will be happy. Plus... It only takes 1 great snowstorm or Blizzard to make the season feel like it was a good one. 

I have learned though ( last year was a good example ) not to take a forecast to heart as it will and does change. Almost every media forum, meteotologist, were calling for stellar Winter conditions here in Southern New England, and they all had mud on their face by late January when they realized that it was not coming to fruition. So, I always keep faith as thongs can and do change from week to week. 

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My point isn't so much that the pattern is a perfect match in 2019-20 and 2004-05 in the NE or nationally, just that it's a lot closer than 2002-03 and 2019-20 which is probably a closer ENSO/QBO match, but much worse for actual temperatures. The point is that incorporating the year/year tendency seems to have helped pick a better year since randomly picking which of the best QBO/ENSO matches to use doesn't seem to really add anything. Last year was another good example of the low-solar El Nino thing for Boston - temperatures in winter are pretty correlated with total snow, and you've never had more than a +50% snow season in a low solar El Nino back to the 1800s, with over 90% of the years below 45 inches. So it's not shocking that 2004-05, which wasn't really low solar (my cut off is 50 sunspots/year), was a better winter. The MJO also behaved a lot like 1997-98 last year at times, with help from a similar bad IOD pattern for a lot of the US and all of that.

I've said before, I'm not a big fan of the QBO as a meaningful indicator. There is no good, strong QBO match by both magnitude and timing to this year anyway given the timing of the switch in trend downward to upward in the anomalies in Spring. 

Snow totals in La Ninas in the Northeast are pretty directly correlated to the ACE index in the Atlantic, so that's something to watch. The season looks like it will quiet down a lot after Wednesday once Paulette and Sally are dead or at least dying/extratropical. Teddy may be the only thing left, since Vicky should die off pretty quick. I am looking forward to seeing what Ray comes up with, I reckon he owes you all about 80 inches of snow from the past two years in Boston. 

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51 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

My point isn't so much that the pattern is a perfect match in 2019-20 and 2004-05 in the NE or nationally, just that it's a lot closer than 2002-03 and 2019-20 which is probably a closer ENSO/QBO match, but much worse for actual temperatures. The point is that incorporating the year/year tendency seems to have helped pick a better year since randomly picking which of the best QBO/ENSO matches to use doesn't seem to really add anything. Last year was another good example of the low-solar El Nino thing for Boston - temperatures in winter are pretty correlated with total snow, and you've never had more than a +50% snow season in a low solar El Nino back to the 1800s, with over 90% of the years below 45 inches. So it's not shocking that 2004-05, which wasn't really low solar (my cut off is 50 sunspots/year), was a better winter. The MJO also behaved a lot like 1997-98 last year at times, with help from a similar bad IOD pattern for a lot of the US and all of that.

I've said before, I'm not a big fan of the QBO as a meaningful indicator. There is no good, strong QBO match by both magnitude and timing to this year anyway given the timing of the switch in trend downward to upward in the anomalies in Spring. 

Snow totals in La Ninas in the Northeast are pretty directly correlated to the ACE index in the Atlantic, so that's something to watch. The season looks like it will quiet down a lot after Wednesday once Paulette and Sally are dead or at least dying/extratropical. Teddy may be the only thing left, since Vicky should die off pretty quick. I am looking forward to seeing what Ray comes up with, I reckon he owes you all about 80 inches of snow from the past two years in Boston. 

I’m sure you posted about it but I missed this. How does it correlate?

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19 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

'04-'05 and last year took totally different paths too after December...last winter, December was extremely wet with near normal temps and then a blowtorch/dry rest of the winter....while '04-'05 was consistently pretty wet and not warm the whole winter.

2004-05 had the rarity of above normal snows in every individual month November to March.   We kicked off the season with a nice 3-6 event Veterans Day weekend.  Max (capecod04) had just moved to the area and messenger (RIP) was active that season as well.  

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10 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’m sure you posted about it but I missed this. How does it correlate?

I think it's the old belief that hurricanes throw heat energy into the NAO domain. I remember that was the belief awhile back. I feel like that is more myth vs truth. Nina's always have more tropical activity and usually aren't conducive for blocking in that area given faster mid latitude flow. Not to say it couldn't happen...but just speaking on climo. 

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