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ORH_wxman

Winter 2020-2021

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

There’s basically no correlation. So some years are going to be good after an October piggy (see 2010 or 1995) and other years are going to stink. 

As for last year, we didn’t actually have a pig in AK in October. Maybe briefly but the mean was a ridge that month. 

I’d worry if it shows up in November...esp 2nd half of the month. 

The monthly mean may not show it but I remember getting pretty nervous in October when it looked bad up there. I probably ended up being right for the wrong reasons though.

I just don’t like seeing any holes up there in the fall.

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I know it’s hard to undo the shook from last year, but I really believe there is nothing to fear when that happens in October. 

Kinda like when it snows in October...nothing to fear?

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29 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The monthly mean may not show it but I remember getting pretty nervous in October when it looked bad up there. I probably ended up being right for the wrong reasons though.

I just don’t like seeing any holes up there in the fall.

Yeah the thing is, I can point to epic winters that had one up there in October. What do we say about it those times? It just isn’t very useful as a predictive measure imho. 

I’ll definitely be on the nervous train of it shows up in a sustained fashion deep in November. That’s where it actually seems to matter. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the thing is, I can point to epic winters that had one up there in October. What do we say about it those times? It just isn’t very useful as a predictive measure imho. 

I’ll definitely be on the nervous train of it shows up in a sustained fashion deep in November. That’s where it actually seems to matter. 

Saved in case we have to pop the question late Novie.

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53 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yep...and man last year threw everyone for a loop. Who would have thought on 12/15 that we would enter such a historically bad stretch. 

Yeah seriously. There’s basically no analog for last year. Closest is maybe 1996-1997 but the late November and December pattern last year was even better than ‘96 and the post-Xmas pattern was even shittier than ‘97. 

Really bizarre. The big -AO bout in November too is usually very highly correlated with another sustained -AO stretch in the winter but it didn’t happen. 

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah seriously. There’s basically no analog for last year. Closest is maybe 1996-1997 but the late November and December pattern last year was even better than ‘96 and the post-Xmas pattern was even shittier than ‘97. 

Really bizarre. The big -AO bout in November too is usually very highly correlated with another sustained -AO stretch in the winter but it didn’t happen. 

Almost as bizarre as a record snow winter with a raging +NAO. :lol: 

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15 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Honestly no lol. 

In 22 Octobers here I've had 1"+ snows in 4.  Two were ratters,05-06 and 11-12, and two were good to great, 00-01 and 18-19. The Farmington co-op has a weak correspondence between temps and snowfall - BN October/BN snow; BN November/AN snow.  That co-op has recorded 27 Octobers with 1"+ in 127 years.  Snowfall in those years average 91" and the overall average is 90".  The 8 Octobers with 4"+ average 93".  Since the 27 with 1"+ average 3" and the 4"+ years average 5", Nov-May seasons for each run 88", about 1" BN as Octobers overall average 0.7".

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I wonder if those correlation arguments or points are reducing in value anyway... 

If this speed stuff and the folding of the atmosphere at large scale, causing book-end winter expressive patterns that yield to internal seasonal gradient saturated craziness has merit... 

Those correlations are based on a heredity that may no longer be valid. So, while they may not be entirely moot, their usefulness questionable. 

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1 hour ago, tamarack said:

In 22 Octobers here I've had 1"+ snows in 4.  Two were ratters,05-06 and 11-12, and two were good to great, 00-01 and 18-19. The Farmington co-op has a weak correspondence between temps and snowfall - BN October/BN snow; BN November/AN snow.  That co-op has recorded 27 Octobers with 1"+ in 127 years.  Snowfall in those years average 91" and the overall average is 90".  The 8 Octobers with 4"+ average 93".  Since the 27 with 1"+ average 3" and the 4"+ years average 5", Nov-May seasons for each run 88", about 1" BN as Octobers overall average 0.7".

The “October snow portends poor winter snowfall” myth is always fun to watch run through the forum this time of year.  Even down here in the valley we essentially get snow every October, and the subsequent seasons can’t all be bad – or maybe they all have been bad, which means it could be very interesting if we ever get to see what a good snowfall season is like.  In any event, I see that one way to address the issue is to look at the way Tamarack did, with a snowfall threshold.  If I apply the simple 1” threshold, in the 14 seasons in my data set there are 7 that fall into the category of <1” of October snowfall, and 7 that fall into the category of ≥1” of October snowfall.  The mean snowfall for those seasons is 153.1” and 156.7”, respectively.  So I’d say that settles the matter rather solidly – snow weenies can stop wishing away October snowfall as some harbinger of doom and finally embrace it.  They know they want it to snow in October anyway, so now they don’t have to be conflicted.  One would have to be a fool to give up literally inches of additional snowfall each season by forcefully wishing away October flakes.

SnowItsComing.gif

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22 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

The “October snow portends poor winter snowfall” myth is always fun to watch run through the forum this time of year.  Even down here in the valley we essentially get snow every October, and the subsequent seasons can’t all be bad – or maybe they all have been bad, which means it could be very interesting if we ever get to see what a good snowfall season is like.  In any event, I see that one way to address the issue is to look at the way Tamarack did, with a snowfall threshold.  If I apply the simple 1” threshold, in the 14 seasons in my data set there are 7 that fall into the category of <1” of October snowfall, and 7 that fall into the category of ≥1” of October snowfall.  The mean snowfall for those seasons is 153.1” and 156.7”, respectively.  So I’d say that settles the matter rather solidly – snow weenies can stop wishing away October snowfall as some harbinger of doom and finally embrace it.  They know they want it to snow in October anyway, so now they don’t have to be conflicted.  One would have to be a fool to give up literally inches of additional snowfall each season by forcefully wishing away October flakes.

 

I had a thread on the old EasternUsWx forum titled "The October Snowfall Myth" and it went through the statistics of it.

The biggest reason that myth gets perpetuated is because BOS (and HFD/BDL is similar too) has like a sample size of 4 Octobers in the last 50 years with measurable snow and they mostly sucked (2009, 2005, and 2011). You could include 1979 in there even though BOS got a trace, but much of the city had measurable. Anyone with a rudimentary understanding of statistics would tell you a sample size of 3 or 4 is worthless in this context. But when we expand the sample to interior sites like ORH where we have double digit October snowfalls, the mean snowfall following years with measurable October snow increases to right around the long term mean of all years. (I.E., it has no correlation) Blockbuster years that had measurable October snowfall at ORH include 2002-2003, 2000-2001, 1960-1961, and 1961-1962.

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Here's a thought - ... folding hemisphere/synoptics means early (late) cold shots... exciting snow chances at those times of the year - both anomalous for the last 200 years of date ( but perhaps not so for this present/immediate climate era ), but... since the mid winters are getting disrupted by speed saturation and R-wave progressive flows related to that ... it may be systemic to think of snow in October as increasingly likely ... while "organized" stormy and cold stable pattern deliveries as less likely in winters - period.  

And that those two circumstances are related because of fast atmosphere overall - but that does not mean they are connected by some other physical timing ... 

We used to debate pattern timing up at UML in Synoptic/FAST ...and we used to grudgingly agree that snow in October might be a poor correlator to mid winter, because of the normal gestation of pattern residence.  There's really like three bell-curves there... a 10 day ... 45 day ... 90 day.... Patterns tend to 'click into temporal' cogs like that, before modulating to something new... Now, it can be muddled some by 10 days of pattern that flips... only to flip back ... so, which was it... Relaxations are part of pattern persistence however... and often the pattern's true residence has to be analyzed passe to determine that stuff... 

Anyway, 1995 was two 45 day long patterns ...interceded by a 10 day relaxation... ( example ) ...  That's sort of what we played around with.   

Snow in October doesn't fit winter in any numerology of the bell-curve of pattern gestation/timing ... 10 days equates to a Rosby roll-out in early November...  45 ... terminates just prior to X mass ...usually in time for a grundle bomb too as though stalking that particular homage ... the 90 day might work, BUT, ...because October is the transition month...seldom can a stable R-wave distribution really be maintained through that inharmonious wave time of the year...making 90 days ( 45 for that matter..) less likely to occur beginning in that month. 

In effect, October is kind of in no-man's land.   But, again...that is based on the traditional data set ...which I think is in the process of being significantly changed due to the last 15 or so year's of behavior and probably going forward in this climate change shit. 

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I think NJ had like a 1-3" event in October 2008 as well. I remember Kevin had leftover -SN that evening as it moved NE. Their winter in 08-09 was not too great IIRC. Like Tip said, October is akin to April with the bowling balls and cut off potential as wave lengths are in flux. By default, this means you are prone to meteorological events that can be bizarre and out of the ordinary. By no means, do they have any say on the pattern 2+ months later. 

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Yeah that too - wasn't even thinking of bowling balls - but ...  Case in point - does anyone remember that weird early October thunder snow squall event that hit Buffalo like way back there... autumn of 2006   I don't believe the ensuing winter (Will ? ) was particularly good or bad ... I mean that was clearly a rogue event/fluke like Scott just intimated... and was indicative of nothing. 

 

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14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think NJ had like a 1-3" event in October 2008 as well. I remember Kevin had leftover -SN that evening as it moved NE. Their winter in 08-09 was not too great IIRC. Like Tip said, October is akin to April with the bowling balls and cut off potential as wave lengths are in flux. By default, this means you are prone to meteorological events that can be bizarre and out of the ordinary. By no means, do they have any say on the pattern 2+ months later. 

I had snow from that as well in 2008. Got a coating on the mulch that evening after it changed over. Wasn’t measurable though. 

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah that too - wasn't even thinking of bowling balls - but ...  Case in point - does anyone remember that weird early October thunder snow squall event that hit Buffalo like way back there... autumn of 2006   I don't believe the ensuing winter (Will ? ) was particularly good or bad ... I mean that was clearly a rogue event/fluke like Scott just intimated... and was indicative of nothing. 

 

That was an incredible event. Non stop LTG coming off the lake there with 3"+/hr snows. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

That was an incredible event. Non stop LTG coming off the lake there with 3"+/hr snows. 

Tends to happen ( lol ) when transporting -20 C 850 mb air plume over a still swimmable synoptic-scaled lake

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah that too - wasn't even thinking of bowling balls - but ...  Case in point - does anyone remember that weird early October thunder snow squall event that hit Buffalo like way back there... autumn of 2006   I don't believe the ensuing winter (Will ? ) was particularly good or bad ... I mean that was clearly a rogue event/fluke like Scott just intimated... and was indicative of nothing. 

 

The winter of 2006-07 sucked here...it was great for LES belts and good for NNE.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The winter of 2006-07 sucked here...it was great for LES belts and good for NNE.

OH yeah...wasn't that the year that it was like 50 to 70 F every afternoon until mid January ...when finally, the AO tanked on our side of the hemisphere the script flipped... 

I thought Valentine Storm was 2007 though and we finished stronger - but it may be eclipsed by the specter of the cosmic dildo flogging that occurred in the first half. I don't know. 

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11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

OH yeah...wasn't that the year that it was like 50 to 70 F every afternoon until mid January ...when finally, the AO tanked on our side of the hemisphere the script flipped... 

I thought Valentine Storm was 2007 though and we finished stronger - but it may be eclipsed by the specter of the cosmic dildo flogging that occurred in the first half. I don't know. 

You are right. The script and AO did flip, but it was more focused on NNE. We did "okay" in VD mixed bag, then SPD was the best pure snowfall of the season....about 1' in our area nw of town.

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37 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The winter of 2006-07 sucked here...it was great for LES belts and good for NNE.

Was hot garbage up this way too. Only 32". Only thing impressive about that winter was the Feb cold snap. 

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We did similarly that year and 2007-08.

I had 34.5" in 2006-07.

07-08 was a good redemption winter after 06-07. Hoping it's colder than 2007-08 though. There are some impressive cold Nina winters following Nino's. 

Hoping for a similar outcome this year. Although compared to 06-07, we ended last season with 57". 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I think NJ had like a 1-3" event in October 2008 as well. I remember Kevin had leftover -SN that evening as it moved NE. Their winter in 08-09 was not too great IIRC. Like Tip said, October is akin to April with the bowling balls and cut off potential as wave lengths are in flux. By default, this means you are prone to meteorological events that can be bizarre and out of the ordinary. By no means, do they have any say on the pattern 2+ months later. 

In my NNJ days we had only one measurable October event, 0.7" on the 26th in 1962.  High at my place was a cool 34° and football practice was quite chilly, especially as Fridays were only walk-throughs, not much to help stay warm.  (Ironically, exactly one year later was my first game playing all the offensive and defensive snaps, in mid-80s heat - sweated off about 15 lb but that was one of only 2 wins for us that year.)

The winter of 2006-07 sucked here...it was great for LES belts and good for NNE.

Good for NNE from Jan. 14 on.  Until then met winter temps were running about +8 here and the 11"of snow was exactly 1/3 of the average thru 1/13.  The rest of that winter (thru mid April) brought another 84" snow with temps significantly BN.  Most schizophrenic winter of my experience.

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