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ORH_wxman

Winter 2020-2021

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I also think January may be somehwhat salvageable, but we'll see....

'09 and '11 were obviously huge Januarys in +QBO Ninas.

2017 was a furnace, though it did have a few snow events.

If we want to extend back further with +QBO Nina Januarys....Jan 2000 was actually pretty cold/snowy in an otherwise garbage winter. Jan '76 was frigid and snowy and Jan '72 was mild and snowless but then rebounded big in Feb...somewhat rare for Ninas.

 

So there's definitely some decent precedent for cold/snowy Januarys in +QBO La Ninas.

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16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

'09 and '11 were obviously huge Januarys in +QBO Ninas.

2017 was a furnace, though it did have a few snow events.

If we want to extend back further with +QBO Nina Januarys....Jan 2000 was actually pretty cold/snowy in an otherwise garbage winter. Jan '76 was frigid and snowy and Jan '72 was mild and snowless but then rebounded big in Feb...somewhat rare for Ninas.

 

So there's definitely some decent precedent for cold/snowy Januarys in +QBO La Ninas.

I would be surprised if January was a good retention month like January 2009...I think I cracked freezing like once in a month. But I would see some decent snows amidst inferior retention.

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38 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I could see a late season recovery, but I'm not baking that into the snow totals this go around....small changes in timing can destroy the outlook, as I saw last year. Gotta be careful after two consecutive snowfall forecasts busted too high.

Bookend winters are the new norm. Whether we ‘recover’ in Mar or April/May will make the difference on snow totals. 

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30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would be surprised if January was a good retention month like January 2009...I think I cracked freezing like once in a month. But I would see some decent snows amidst inferior retention.

Dec 08 and January 2009 were both awesome up this way with 26" and 28", respectively. We cracked freezing 4 days in Jan 09 but it was barely above. We had better snow cover retention in 2008-09 than 2007-08. Although 2008-09 was a +QBO, it was a second year Nina with a deeply -PDO unlike this year. 

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5 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Dec 08 and January 2009 were both awesome up this way with 26" and 28", respectively. We cracked freezing 4 days in Jan 09 but it was barely above. We had better snow cover retention in 2008-09 than 2007-08. Although 2008-09 was a +QBO, it was a second year Nina with a deeply -PDO unlike this year. 

Pretty hard to find a +QBO/+PDO winter in a La Nina....but 2016-2017 is basically the only one. You could maybe include 1985-1986 but that wasn't really a La Nina. It was a negative-neutral that fell just short of weak Nina.

The PDO could still go solidly negative....it can change quickly. Though we're clearly not in a longer term deep -PDO like we were in the late 2000s/early 2010s.

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20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pretty hard to find a +QBO/+PDO winter in a La Nina....but 2016-2017 is basically the only one. You could maybe include 1985-1986 but that wasn't really a La Nina. It was a negative-neutral that fell just short of weak Nina.

The PDO could still go solidly negative....it can change quickly. Though we're clearly not in a longer term deep -PDO like we were in the late 2000s/early 2010s.

It was very negative for August, at -1.25, but the September # is not out yet...

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speed/shearing is already observable ... 

Look at this flat baroclinic wave induced leaf on satellite - f'n haulin' absolute ass ... 

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It was very negative for August, at -1.25, but the September # is not out yet...

Yeah and Sept might still be neg too...but the last week or two has def trended strongly toward positive....I had posted the SSTA map yesterday or the day before. We'll see if it reverses again...I'd expect it to, but no guarantees.

 

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25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pretty hard to find a +QBO/+PDO winter in a La Nina....but 2016-2017 is basically the only one. You could maybe include 1985-1986 but that wasn't really a La Nina. It was a negative-neutral that fell just short of weak Nina.

The PDO could still go solidly negative....it can change quickly. Though we're clearly not in a longer term deep -PDO like we were in the late 2000s/early 2010s.

2016-17 came off a very strong Nino and was during +PDO that started in 2014. I would assume even just based off that, it's not an ideal analogue for this year. 

I wonder if we see a multi-year Nina event this year and would it be enough to move us back into a longer term deep -PDO like the late 2000s. Last multi-year Nina event was 1998-2001 and prior to that 1973-1976. 

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33 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah and Sept might still be neg too...but the last week or two has def trended strongly toward positive....I had posted the SSTA map yesterday or the day before. We'll see if it reverses again...I'd expect it to, but no guarantees.

 

 

Current SST anomalies...certainly +PDO.

20201002_115240.thumb.jpg.2a3cb5471b2c81edc91a7fd0714eeb3d.jpg

 

Last 15 days...increasing +PDO.

20201002_115256.thumb.jpg.ce8be4e73e73547ab50b2b51935660d6.jpg

 

Although I 100% agree with your statement hat it can quickly change & especially during fall seasons. So, thinking winter by looking at PDO in fall "can" certainly backfire. 

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The PDO - as I read back in the 1990s ... - is often prone to ephemeral looks because of sea-surface wind stressing.

Which makes sense, considering the PDO's domain space is pretty much overridden by the wildest, windiest tropospheric realm on the planet, ... pushing water plumes around and upwelling this and loading warm into shallows that. It's like one of those thumb-slide puzzles. 

Such that given to how deep the surface layering is (warm)(cool), either can be disintegrated instra seasonal and if significant enough, on scales of mere weeks at that.  

That lends to me questioning the usefulness of assessing the PDO in any given July through early October time frame, if one is to assess how it may look/be somehow correlative in ensuing winter.  I wonder if anyone has ever took the scalar PDO of August and compared it January's ?  Like -1 August = ? January in the "tendencies" - I bet the correlation is more noisy than we think... while biases the decadal signal... Such that if we are in the positive(negative) modes ... Jan tends to reflect the decadal signal, and August's throw out the variability.

Thing is... momentum left over from spring may be mashed up with solar modulated summers, at a time of the year when/where said stressing is not as mechanical adding to the deception ... and that can falsely reduce(elevate) negative(positive) PDO's which ... btw, the "D" in P - D - O stands for "Decadal" for a reason... It doesn't mean "Dailies"   ... such that a Aleutian bomb may neg the shit out of the domain up there ...but not really consistent with the longer term's vastly more correlatable decadal lags.  Such that there's a couple faux negatives in Sept... a bomb in mid October that upwells, and everyone forecast a winter -PDO correlation that doesn't mean anything because the circuitry is all positive by Thanks Giving and stays that way until March.

Just attempting to some healthy skepticism here - 

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The PDO - as I read back in the 1990s ... - is often prone to ephemeral looks because of sea-surface wind stressing.

Which makes sense, considering the PDO's domain space is pretty much overridden by the wildest, windiest tropospheric realm on the planet, ... pushing water plumes around and upwelling this and loading warm into shallows that. It's like one of those thumb-slide puzzles. 

Such that given to how deep the surface layering is (warm)(cool), either can be disintegrated instra seasonal and if significant enough, on scales of mere weeks at that.  

That lends to me questioning the usefulness of assessing the PDO in any given July through early October time frame, if one is to assess how it may look/be somehow correlative in ensuing winter.  I wonder if anyone has ever took the scalar PDO of August and compared it January's ?  Like -1 August = ? January in the "tendencies" - I bet the correlation is more noisy than we think... while biases the decadal signal... Such that if we are in the positive(negative) modes ... Jan tends to reflect the decadal signal, and August's throw out the variability.

Thing is... momentum left over from spring may be mashed up with solar modulated summers, at a time of the year when/where said stressing is not as mechanical adding to the deception ... and that can falsely reduce(elevate) negative(positive) PDO's which ... btw, the "D" in P - D - O stands for "Decadal" for a reason... It doesn't mean "Dailies"   ... such that a Aleutian bomb may neg the shit out of the domain up there ...but not really consistent with the longer term's vastly more correlatable decadal lags.  Such that there's a couple faux negatives in Sept... a bomb in mid October that upwells, and everyone forecast a winter -PDO correlation that doesn't mean anything because the circuitry is all positive by Thanks Giving and stays that way until March.

Just attempting to some healthy skepticism here - 

I agree it seems to have a larger effect on a multi-year scale rather than a shorter time frame. It's likely more one of those things where if we get it strongly positive or strongly negative leading into a month, it can help sustain or inhibit a pattern all else equal.....i.e., it isn't a dominant driver but can act as a compliment.

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35 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I agree it seems to have a larger effect on a multi-year scale rather than a shorter time frame. It's likely more one of those things where if we get it strongly positive or strongly negative leading into a month, it can help sustain or inhibit a pattern all else equal.....i.e., it isn't a dominant driver but can act as a compliment.

Yeah I think this is the intellectual/ course of least regret in using the PDO metric frankly ... and by the way, check this but I think the multi-decadal curve is arguing -PDO/-AMO  through 2030 .. So if it is positive - I have two thoughts on that... 

The first is, it may be a lie... Why? Because we are also now toting along this multi-decade warm basin signal. 

I think if you look at the last 200 some- months worth of anomalies products at NASA... 78% of the Basin has been in a positive anomaly 78% of the months or something ... ( making that up but it's been warm biased).  *AND* that is now overlapping the -PDO according to the multi-decadal oscillatory curve that was constructed based upon reanalysis from 200 years ago .. that become more empirical mid century onwards.. Blah blah.. .point is - and I'm sorry if this chaps asses and/or rolls eyes but the fact of the matter is - global warming is f'ing this whole conversation up before we even have it.. Jesus Christ. 

But, suppose for a moment GW doesn't matter ( yeah right - ) ... the PDO/AMO move together, and both move with a very high correlation to the solar cycle.  So it is an interesting diametric signal there... we have a multi-decade in situ warm anomaly - regardless of GW or not ...it's there - "fighting" the -PDO ...which by the way, should be a whopper given to the superposition theory and the deep solar min ... 

I keep coming back the same thing .. the primary force in the scaling of equations is the HC expansion and the polar field/Ferrel Cell interface velocity in the gradient saturation as overwhelming things. That's putting the previous modes that were better correlations more on the back burner - note, that is not saying they don't influence.  Seems there is a tendency to read shit and think it's absolute stink and that's not the point here - but, we live on a dynamical world - and dynamics actually translates directly to "change" as per definition... Sometimes the turds of change just have to be seen or we risk drinking the cool-aide

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah I think this is the intellectual/ course of least regret in using the PDO metric frankly ... and by the way, check this but I think the multi-decadal curve is arguing -PDO/-AMO  through 2030 .. So if it is positive - I have two thoughts on that... 

The first is, it may be a lie... Why? Because we are also now toting along this multi-decade warm basin signal. 

I think if you look at the last 200 some- months worth of anomalies products at NASA... 78% of the Basin has been in a positive anomaly 78% of the months or something ... ( making that up but it's been warm biased).  *AND* that is now overlapping the -PDO according to the multi-decadal oscillatory curve that was constructed based upon reanalysis from 200 years ago .. that become more empirical mid century onwards.. Blah blah.. .point is - and I'm sorry if this chaps asses and/or rolls eyes but the fact of the matter is - global warming is f'ing this whole conversation up before we even have it.. Jesus Christ. 

But, suppose for a moment GW doesn't matter ( yeah right - ) ... the PDO/AMO move together, and both move with a very high correlation to the solar cycle.  So it is an interesting diametric signal there... we have a multi-decade in situ warm anomaly - regardless of GW or not ...it's there - "fighting" the -PDO ...which by the way, should be a whopper given to the superposition theory and the deep solar min ... 

I keep coming back the same thing .. the primary force in the scaling of equations is the HC expansion and the polar field/Ferrel Cell interface velocity in the gradient saturation as overwhelming things. That's putting the previous modes that were better correlations more on the back burner - note, that is not saying they don't influence.  Seems there is a tendency to read shit and think it's absolute stink and that's not the point here - but, we live on a dynamical world - and dynamics actually translates directly to "change" a definition... Sometimes the turds of change just have to be seen or we risk drinking the cool-aide

I do think the HC/FC gradient is being significantly enhanced at our latitudes by the +AO of the past 5-6 seasons or so after we had a pretty good run of strongly -AO seasons (sans '11-'12) in the previous 5 years. So my guess is some of the gradient issues relax during our next bout of -AO patterns. Of course, we also aren't entirely sure how much the HC expansion or climate change affects the AO itself. We have seen competing theories in the literature.

Here's another version of the map from yesterday. Instead of comparing the last 5-6season to 2000-2014, I compared it to only 2009-2014...the AO region sticks out even more.

 

 

2015-2020minus2009-2014.png

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33 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I do think the HC/FC gradient is being significantly enhanced at our latitudes by the +AO of the past 5-6 seasons or so after we had a pretty good run of strongly -AO seasons (sans '11-'12) in the previous 5 years. So my guess is some of the gradient issues relax during our next bout of -AO patterns. Of course, we also aren't entirely sure how much the HC expansion or climate change affects the AO itself. We have seen competing theories in the literature.

Here's another version of the map from yesterday. Instead of comparing the last 5-6season to 2000-2014, I compared it to only 2009-2014...the AO region sticks out even more.

 

 

2015-2020minus2009-2014.png

Yeah ... separating the -AO from the +AO ... as being rooted in what cause is a whole 'nother popsicle headache - good luck! 

But I also like where you are going there, because a -AO base-line tussling with HC would quite reasonably cause a different "synergistic" hemisphere ...having those opposing aspects in tandem.   

I don't know how to visualize that resolution.  

The +AO is easy ...  It's a contraction N of the westerlies/Polar Jet as we know... and that's sort of like giving the HC "carte blanche" - you know?  So we wash in bathing progressivity and sheared out busted R-waves that can't situate ...and you know the drill...   Anyone want to argue that's NOT what we've eaten the last half-ten ?   If so, never log in again - 

But jokes aside, the HC isn't going anywhere - most likely... Most papers, sciences and scholars are leaning heavily toward it's anchoring in GW ... so -

But... the +AO affliction is making the GW seem like whole numbers instead of decimals - which it still is.   When they flash headlines designed to jolt awareness ( ahem...) that X month was the warmest ever ...they mean it was .01 warmer than the last 'oh-my-god-we're-all-gonna-die' month ...  I mean it's not good that we are adding decimals ...no.. But, it's like Venus comes tomorrow. ...or even in 50 years... although ... things could be sensibly different by then if the "acceleration" shit continues ...   Logarithmic change is a little harry out to 5 decades... 

Anyway, I'm not really sure about the +AO longevity ...it doens't fit the solar min curve...Last year was not right ... and it's persistence was also ... doubling down on that 'not righteousness' ha-ha.  Seriously... I don't blame the QBO when the QBO was weak and there are plenty of -AO at similar QBO in the past... so, ... the MJO's were also biased on 3-6 phases, which is consistent with the +AO correlation - it worries me that the whole hemisphere was butt-fing winter ...from the Eq to the Pol and this is unrelenting... I am not sure that HC ... I don't see how - but it does seem to be a constructive interference that is making the HC very demonstrative ... making huge mid lat wind budgets -

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2 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

Current SST anomalies...certainly +PDO.

20201002_115240.thumb.jpg.2a3cb5471b2c81edc91a7fd0714eeb3d.jpg

 

Last 15 days...increasing +PDO.

20201002_115256.thumb.jpg.ce8be4e73e73547ab50b2b51935660d6.jpg

 

Although I 100% agree with your statement hat it can quickly change & especially during fall seasons. So, thinking winter by looking at PDO in fall "can" certainly backfire. 

I wish I still had the link, but there was a very extensive article which went into depth on the ENSO/PDO winter relationship. It argued that ENSO forces the PDO, which is why, the overwhelming majority of the time you have +PDO with a Niño and -PDO with a Niña for winter. I think +PDO/Niña winters were found to be even rarer than -PDO/Nino winters in the study.. Both combos are very rare

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

I do think the HC/FC gradient is being significantly enhanced at our latitudes by the +AO of the past 5-6 seasons or so after we had a pretty good run of strongly -AO seasons (sans '11-'12) in the previous 5 years. So my guess is some of the gradient issues relax during our next bout of -AO patterns. Of course, we also aren't entirely sure how much the HC expansion or climate change affects the AO itself. We have seen competing theories in the literature.

Here's another version of the map from yesterday. Instead of comparing the last 5-6season to 2000-2014, I compared it to only 2009-2014...the AO region sticks out even more.

 

 

2015-2020minus2009-2014.png

The increasing difference/gap between the yinging and the yanging. 

Pretty alarming even if the sample size is relatively small.

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Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep   DJF 3.4 DJFp 3.4
1966 -21.90 -17.14 -11.07 -2.33 2.16 5.42 7.47 7.63 9.23   26.18 27.78
2010 -16.02 -16.98 -19.68 -23.57 -26.28 -25.05 -9.84 1.45 6.58   25.21 28.14
2016 9.34 6.77 3.16 0.64 2.37 3.86 6.25 10.07 10.48   26.30 29.13
2016 9.34 6.77 3.16 0.64 2.37 3.86 6.25 10.07 10.48   26.30 29.13
Blend -4.81 -5.15 -6.11 -6.16 -4.85 -2.98 2.53 7.31 9.19   26.00 28.54
2020 -2.51 -3.20 -4.36 -5.03 -4.86 -2.78 0.34 4.78 7.95      
Trend   down down down up up up up up      

 

That's the simplest good QBO match I can come up with using the September data, although the drop off in Nino 3.4 won't be ~2.5C. Probably more like 1.8C. If the QBO trend matters, 2008 may be peaking as a similar year now as the QBO dipped from September to November. I think the raw value for 2020 could be ~15 in November as it peaks or continues to rise, while 2008 fell off to 9 or so from a June/July peak before a second winter peak. I'd imagine the current QBO peak will not be a double peak like that. Throwing in 1961 would keep the trends/match pretty strong but make the y/y more comparable to this year. Either way, still kind of a cold NW / warm East & South look nationally.

Do want to see the monthly SST data for September. I think its pretty close to 2007 and 1995 still. The MJO lingering in phase five around 10/1 in a low solar La Nina is something I take as a good sign for what I expect in winter as it happened in 2007, 2011, and 2016 to some extent. The blend of those years looks a lot like what I have, and gets you a ~25.5C La Nina winter, following a 27.2C El Nino the prior year (27.1 in 2019-20). Similar ACE (104 v. current 105), low sea ice, with a -PDO, but not out control. I do think the -PDO looks less likely to be severely negative than a few weeks ago, but probably still negative. But I lean more toward 0.0 to -1.0 for Nov-Apr on the Nate Mantua method than the -0.5 to -1.5 I was expecting before. If the entire North Pacific is cold or warm, you can still have a + or - PDO if the relational setup between the NE & NW are correct, so I lean toward a "warm" version of the -PDO for Nov-Apr.

Also: I'm not optimistic for the NE overall, I think it will be warm again, but I actually do think it's a pretty decent snow setup for New England. I'm not talking 80 inches of snow for Boston, but a general +0% to +30% for snow. I'd have to look, but I think NYC was near average, Boston was above, and south of NYC was pretty crap in the blend I have. The low solar La Ninas are pretty good for Boston for snow in the past 90 years: 1933, 1942, 1954, 1964, 1973, 1974, 1975, 1984, 1995, 2005, 2007, 2010, 2016, 2017. Most of the years are above average (9/14) and no true duds. Even without 1995-96, the average is 46 inches, so the 50 inches overall isn't super inflated.

1933: 63" 1942: 46" 1954: 25" 1964: 50"

1973: 37" 1974: 28" 1975: 47" 1984: 27"

1995: 108" 2005: 40" 2007: 51" 2010: 81"

2016: 48" 2017: 60"

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58 minutes ago, raindancewx said:
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep   DJF 3.4 DJFp 3.4
1966 -21.90 -17.14 -11.07 -2.33 2.16 5.42 7.47 7.63 9.23   26.18 27.78
2010 -16.02 -16.98 -19.68 -23.57 -26.28 -25.05 -9.84 1.45 6.58   25.21 28.14
2016 9.34 6.77 3.16 0.64 2.37 3.86 6.25 10.07 10.48   26.30 29.13
2016 9.34 6.77 3.16 0.64 2.37 3.86 6.25 10.07 10.48   26.30 29.13
Blend -4.81 -5.15 -6.11 -6.16 -4.85 -2.98 2.53 7.31 9.19   26.00 28.54
2020 -2.51 -3.20 -4.36 -5.03 -4.86 -2.78 0.34 4.78 7.95      
Trend   down down down up up up up up      

 

That's the simplest good QBO match I can come up with using the September data, although the drop off in Nino 3.4 won't be ~2.5C. Probably more like 1.8C. If the QBO trend matters, 2008 may be peaking as a similar year now as the QBO dipped from September to November. I think the raw value for 2020 could be ~15 in November as it peaks or continues to rise, while 2008 fell off to 9 or so from a June/July peak before a second winter peak. I'd imagine the current QBO peak will not be a double peak like that. Throwing in 1961 would keep the trends/match pretty strong but make the y/y more comparable to this year. Either way, still kind of a cold NW / warm East & South look nationally.

Do want to see the monthly SST data for September. I think its pretty close to 2007 and 1995 still. The MJO lingering in phase five around 10/1 in a low solar La Nina is something I take as a good sign for what I expect in winter as it happened in 2007, 2011, and 2016 to some extent. The blend of those years looks a lot like what I have, and gets you a ~25.5C La Nina winter, following a 27.2C El Nino the prior year (27.1 in 2019-20). Similar ACE (104 v. current 105), low sea ice, with a -PDO, but not out control. I do think the -PDO looks less likely to be severely negative than a few weeks ago, but probably still negative. But I lean more toward 0.0 to -1.0 for Nov-Apr on the Nate Mantua method than the -0.5 to -1.5 I was expecting before. If the entire North Pacific is cold or warm, you can still have a + or - PDO if the relational setup between the NE & NW are correct, so I lean toward a "warm" version of the -PDO for Nov-Apr.

Also: I'm not optimistic for the NE overall, I think it will be warm again, but I actually do think it's a pretty decent snow setup for New England. I'm not talking 80 inches of snow for Boston, but a general +0% to +30% for snow. I'd have to look, but I think NYC was near average, Boston was above, and south of NYC was pretty crap in the blend I have. The low solar La Ninas are pretty good for Boston for snow in the past 90 years: 1933, 1942, 1954, 1964, 1973, 1974, 1975, 1984, 1995, 2005, 2007, 2010, 2016, 2017. Most of the years are above average (9/14) and no true duds. Even without 1995-96, the average is 46 inches, so the 50 inches overall isn't super inflated.

1933: 63" 1942: 46" 1954: 25" 1964: 50"

1973: 37" 1974: 28" 1975: 47" 1984: 27"

1995: 108" 2005: 40" 2007: 51" 2010: 81"

2016: 48" 2017: 60"

I’ll take near average (29”) here after the debacle of last season

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On 9/28/2020 at 7:17 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah that was a fun one to draw up. I always say that I need to resume doing those but it’s hard these days with kids, lol. One of these years I definitely will though...unless some other entity beats me to the punch with detail and QC equal to or superior to what I set as my minimum standards. 

Anyways, here’s the 2007-2008 map again:

2007-2008SNEsnowfall.PNG

Oh, GON......

I might find myself looking for excuses to get to Pit2 this winter.

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2 hours ago, moneypitmike said:

Oh, GON......

I might find myself looking for excuses to get to Pit2 this winter.

Just saw this from Henry H

 

On 9/28/2020 at 10:42 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Just give me a 10 -11 like winter. Shed roof with 42 inches, 5 per hour storm, 11 inches in 2 .5 hrs. 

Screenshot_20200928-223703_Facebook.jpg

20200928_223723.jpg

FB_IMG_1601346593463.jpg

 

Screenshot_20201003-103821.png

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Warm winter for where? The east? Of course these weenie mets don't believe that. When do they ever?

Henry is literally the absolute worst I’ve ever seen, hands down. Whatever he predicts, the opposite is guaranteed to happen. Last winter, he kept predicting extreme cold and snow for the east coast from November until April when he finally gave up. That’s no exaggeration either, he wouldn’t give up, he was getting roasted on Twitter. Dude seemed totally delusional

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On 9/28/2020 at 7:17 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah that was a fun one to draw up. I always say that I need to resume doing those but it’s hard these days with kids, lol. One of these years I definitely will though...unless some other entity beats me to the punch with detail and QC equal to or superior to what I set as my minimum standards. 

Anyways, here’s the 2007-2008 map again:

2007-2008SNEsnowfall.PNG

Can you provide a link to more of these or share all the ones you made some how? id love to see them.

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some QBO numbers...

Sept year...............after.....

2020.....+795.....rising???

2019.....+825.....falling slowly...weak el nino...

2010.....+658.....rising then steady thru the winter at +10...

2008...+1160.....steady around +10 throughout...

1999....+1119.....steady then falling slowing thru the winter to around +5...

1995.....+698.....falling to -10 by March...

1985....+1172.....steady with a minor dip to+9 at winters start...

1975....+1095.....steady throughout...

1971......+895.....steady throughout...

1966.....+923.....rising then steady at around + 12 to +10...

1959....+1009.....steady then falling during the winter to near zero in March...

1955......+816.....steady then falling to negatives by January...

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The culprit at this point is that most of the seasonal models keep indicating a very strong +AO/+NAO/+EPO & a -PNA.  So if the models are wrong at this point just a little it will lead to a big bust. If they are correct it's going to mean a long and depressing Winter for Winter weather lovers.

Has the look of a very strong stratosphere ploar vortex.  I'll be honest this would surprise me. It seems that most stratosphere experts believe that the record strong +IOD last winter was the lead culprit. IOD is negative for now & I dunno.

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