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stadiumwave

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Everything posted by stadiumwave

  1. stadiumwave
    A SPV disruption would not affect the troposphere that fast anyway. Usually 2-5 weeks...IF, IF, IF it downdwells into the troposphere. I have doubts of much affect.
  2. stadiumwave
    https://x.com/Statisticizer/status/2117490059796484274?a=37IteOi_Ly62Baqdd2I&s=19
  3. stadiumwave
  4. stadiumwave
    CanSips NOV Update DEC JAN FEB
  5. stadiumwave
    Makes you wonder if indeed the large SST anomaly in 1&2, 3 contributed to the SSW if it will also repeat. If that was a contributor to current warming then I think its inevitable it will occur again. If it does not occur again, then its likely that was not the cause of the current warming. But I would caution also, the same people warning about not taking seriously the stratosphere forecasts when it was showing a warming, need to be just as cautious about a long-range super recovery forecast. Bias is ridiculous. Recovery is a guarantee without other hits, and strong SPV would not be unusual considering the setup, however, could very well be overdone as well.
  6. stadiumwave
    Great thread on SSW research & I screenshot Paul's reply in case someone misses it. Found interesting. He links a paper. https://x.com/Recretos/status/2115980492876984698?a=SxXaM4VN5NxdefH8xsg&s=19
  7. stadiumwave
    Even weaker
  8. stadiumwave
    https://x.com/MeteoMark/status/2115836527712338188?a=JR30_wRbbVdstqpwhLw&s=19 I don't think Mark understands that a SSW now does not mean the SPV will not recover.
  9. stadiumwave
    I shared his X post & that was it. Glad you & Snowman19 assume you know why, lol. I cannot imagine just scanning every post to see if maybe someone is implying something about a cold winter. You people are sick.
  10. stadiumwave
    https://x.com/webberweather/status/2115404066482475097?a=12X_0gnBmHbDtI1jRmA&s=19
  11. stadiumwave
    Yes, it is. Not as torch as it could be though.
  12. stadiumwave
    In other non-SPV news...maybe lol CFS weekilies...getting into DEC so at least interesting to look. DEC 1-11, 500mb Also notice NAO & AO take the initial dips & looks like another possible early DEC. Just stuff to yawn & watch.
  13. stadiumwave
    Maybe some of them are. I am not sure what you're referring to. I don't follow the METS much but mostly the science nerds. The event itself interests me regardless of outcomes. It is pretty rare. And no one knows how it may or may not affect DEC much, but its certainly not beyond the realm of possibilities that it can. I just think it's wrong to be dogmatic either way. One can speak in probabilities & that's fine but 100% no one knows.
  14. stadiumwave
    Disagree. Regardless of the outcome the potential event does not have a large sample. Anyone saying "they know" either way, is just slinging crap against the wall hoping it will stick.
  15. stadiumwave
    I am sure it will change that far out one way or the other.
  16. stadiumwave
    72 with the strong -PDO as well. Pretty sucky winter.
  17. stadiumwave
    Last year had some impacts I'd say. This is clearly a stronger event than last year & earlier I think. Either way, hard to say exactly what impacts it might have now & later since we are still so young in our atmospheric climatology.
  18. stadiumwave
    0z Euro, full split by NOV 7 10mb 50mb One week later warming still undergoing 10mb 50mb Regardless if u-wind reversal occurs (full SSW), this is very impressive! Is there another year comparable? Is there another super el nino that has an early warming & comparable to this?
  19. stadiumwave
    Appreciate the research!
  20. stadiumwave
    For giggles...6z GFS FWIW...0z GFS Well....just looked & I will add...I guess for giggles 0z Euro 10mb 0z Euro 50mb
  21. stadiumwave
    JAMSTEC OCT update DJF 2m Temp DJF Precip
  22. stadiumwave
    UKMET Update DJF 500mb 2m Temp Precip JFM 2m Temps
  23. stadiumwave
    JMA OCTOBER UPDATE **I think I rotated map too much, so actually the bottom needs to swing a little to the right. I think you'll see it makes a difference. Sorry about that. DJF DEC JAN **For individual months Jan is as far out as one can go until next month's update.
  24. stadiumwave
    NMME Update DEC JAN FEB MARCH
  25. stadiumwave
    Oh, I don't really think that will occur but was just saying its a possibility. I lean toward a better than average winter compared to some of the other Super El Nino's.
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