stadiumwave

Paul Roundy's experiential MJO forecast tool has this look by DEC 14th...just updated. https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/indexmjo.htmlGree Very suppressed SER with big time -EPO & bridge block to Greenland.

https://x.com/judah47/status/1992608265507946858?t=ykLy8c-MkGuGLusD9eZevQ&s=19

Yep, its about the cold & pattern of the period. Obviously I posted a 7 day mean of 2013 & only one specific frame of today's 12z GFS. The system on the GFS is very similar to the system in early DEC 2013. Not making a point about the entire winter.

12z suites showing a big cold dump in rockies, great plains & midwest with a pattern very early DEC 2013 looking. The pattern produced some ice & snow in the MW & OV as well back in 2013. Below you can click the link & watch the 2m Temp progression over that week. Underneath image you will click on "Go Forward one day": https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/composites/comp.day.pl?var=2m+Air+Temperature&level=Surface&iy[1]=&im[1]=&id[1]=&iy[2]=&im[2]=&id[2]=&iy[3]=&im[3]=&id[3]=&iy[4]=&im[4]=&id[4]=&iy[5]=&im[5]=&id[5]=&iy[6]=&im[6]=&id[6]=&iy[7]=&im[7]=&id[7]=&iy[8]=&im[8]=&id[8]=&iy[9]=&im[9]=&id[9]=&iy[10]=&im[10]=&id[10]=&iy[11]=&im[11]=&id[11]=&iy[12]=&im[12]=&id[12]=&iy[13]=&im[13]=&id[13]=&iy[14]=&im[14]=&id[14]=&iy[15]=&im[15]=&id[15]=&iy[16]=&im[16]=&id[16]=&iy[17]=&im[17]=&id[17]=&iy[18]=&im[18]=&id[18]=&iy[19]=&im[19]=&id[19]=&iy[20]=&im[20]=&id[20]=&monr1=12&dayr1=1&monr2=12&dayr2=1&iyr[1]=2013&filenamein=&plotlabel=&lag=0&labelc=Color&labels=Shaded&type=2&scale=&label=0&skip_vector=&cint=&lowr=&highr=&istate=0&proj=North+America&xlat1=&xlat2=&xlon1=&xlon2=&custproj=Cylindrical+Equidistant&level1=1000mb&level2=10mb&Submit=Create+Plot

The can be a lag. I know Roundy has said such a common mistake is to think MJO phase correlation automatically or immediately shows up. Both are a mistake to think.

To your point...DEC, 2010. First half of DEC was in low-amp MJO phases 3,4,5,6 (blue line is DEC): Here are the 2m Temps for DEC 1-20: Certainly other factors can override MJO.

We too quickly buy as gospel LR guidance, which in my experience seems to be at its worst in the winter months. Best to take warmth or cold with a grain of salt.

Great post! CFS: AO

Dump west...bleed east

Winter cancel? 0z EPS DEC 4

You have the greatest hits of subjective posters (3 of them) feeding the general pessimism from the others. I mean I get it...typical year on weather forums, lol.

You are about as objective as a politician answering questions during a press conference.

Unless this data is wrong, then you are incorrect. 1983-84 winter was a -QBO winter.

I am not sure why most are not hopeful for this winter when you simply look at -ENSO winters, with -QBO, & early strat warming (1981, 1983, 1995, 2000, 2017, 2021). On average, longer winters than the +QBO years by far. All those years had good DEC (although +QBO DEC were better) but JAN was the coldest on average in the east. FEB dealt with -EPO & SER combo but yielded to good blocky, colder MAR on average. FEB warmest anomaly wise.

14 day forecast verification for PNA is pretty bad, more positive of the 14 day forecast...take note moving forward

PNA forecast staying closer to neutral now & not as deeply negative & trends positive in later: And, PNA for the most part keeps verifying above forecasts: FWIW

Hmmm....

https://www.meteonetwork.it/models/mjo/ I recommend Paul Roundy's site as well. You can look at the MJO in different portions of each month based off research. Both phases 7 & 8 have their best responses in weeks 3&4 of DEC https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/index200reg.html

BOM agrees...almost identical

Even the European model as well. Today 0z verses the 17th 0z. Am I saying we will not have massive SER problems? Nope but I am not saying we definitely will either.

For that reason, the climatology factor built into models is a factor in the low accuracy for now even in the medium range. GFS for 11/28 from the 14th model runs to today. Clearly, it is the expected to the observation:

Again, yea. Maybe you did not read my post closely. Last year was a La Nina. There was a deep -PDO. I predicted a -PNA dominated winter & a very warm, low snow east & several did. Despite that, the winter defied the odds & was dominated by +PNA. All I am saying is that its weather....not always just simple. So a little humility is needed.

Nearly a guidance is going more amped through 7 & then moving into 8 now. Canadian output is the lone exception

So what was your guess last year during a La Nina dominated by +PNA? PDO was even more negative at this point last year. Could it be more -PNA? Yes! Is it a given? No!