stadiumwave
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Everything posted by stadiumwave
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There will be a warmup I think but hopefully short-lived.
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Probably brief spike before a storm & does not see it clearly. But per Bering Sea rule, expect a ridge in the east at the end of month. Could be temporary but not exactly sure.
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EURO Seasonal updated...here is Dec
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If you're on the east coast more moisture will be involved. Mostly everyone else its clipper type systems...which can produce, but not your big winter storms. The exception may be potential around the 12th.
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Ha, don't think so..
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I honestly wonder if winter forecasts should be redone & use ENSO neutral analogs. This La Nina is dying fast!!! SOI is absolutely tanking
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I think we are going to see plenty of cold but the pattern is going to be overall dry...maybe clippers...etc. I think the 12z CMC has a better handle on the next 10 days over the GFS. It's not a great winter storm pattern by any means.
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N. PAC Current 30 day change
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SOI has been tanking since NOV 23. Only one day of substantial + since then.
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Yes, models have been terrible. Don't anyone try to convince me otherwise. Is it just me or does model performance seem to tank during winter months almost every year?
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Paul Roundy said it, dude is a genius so I am not bold enough to argue! But you're a pretty sharp cookie yourself Don, you're allowed, lol. Good post!
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Paul Roundy's tool updated today. Wowzers!! Winter pattern through the end of JAN. We'll see. https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/indexmjoertap.html Roundy on X today said he gives a 60% chance of the east U.S. getting cold in Feb as well.
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Todays Weeklies have zero warmth in sight throughout the forecast period.
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MJO Phases 7 & 8 & both really good as you move into DEC. Phase 6 is good in DEC until 2nd half of DEC. Phase 7 & 8 gets better each week as you progress into DEC. Phase 7 starts getting worse as you get into JAN. https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/index200reg.html
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12z EPS has persistent cold for though the end.
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Was not referring to you. SS media. Yours is a forecast, the ones I am referring to are just warm biased nuts.
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Ummm Its strange, it took one model run for several SS media folks to think they had the strat all figured out after one forecast spike: "Brief SSW, then raging SPV coming." 3 days of weakening trends & no one but one SS media guy saying anything or correcting. SPV is giving everyone the middle finger.
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Amazing how quite You were amazingly quiet yesterday.
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Of course, there is always a large spread in LR. I said the mean. The mean had been going above normal for several days...it is not now. That is why I shared it. There are a lot of members much, much weaker, even implying a possibility of maybe future warming.
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Mean never gets to normal at all now throughout the forecast period.
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The person who submitted a paper on this is who the bottom quote is from. Research is based on large SOI drops with strongest correlation of i think 21 points or greater. This drop was 39 points...so pretty strong correlation. Based on the research.
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https://x.com/webberweather/status/1993264759794282993?t=BTUYDs0rjkTSzBtZFlACrg&s=19
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15 day change
