stadiumwave

BINGO!!! I just do not think people are being honest with themselves. Too much desire for many to say "I told you so". The event is a hybrid type & not textbook anything,which is why the indexes are so skewed more with this event.

You're overkill. Everyone needs to be objective. There's too much subjectivity your way & the other. The middle ground will win the day.

Much better than Mondays update! And thanks!

Anyone have the stratosphere forecast graph from today's Euro Weeklies?

Hmmm....

I love Paul, but I've noticed the same with his tools. And he has been using big adjectives about the Nino with everything that occurs (+IOD, last wind burst...etc.) & its resulted in pretty much nothing each time. I wonder why he's not being a little more cautious with his descriptive terms? He's not usually the "hype" type.

Looks good to me. I'd take that DEC anyday verses what a Nino DEC can be.

That's pretty telling.

Obviously warmish on 2m temps verses the norm on most seasonal models always anymore.

It is in ENSO SST anomaly structure, also the -PDO, but the QBO & forcing is different. As Gritear & Wiz both showed in their forecasts, the forcing is very similar to 2002-03, & 2009-10.

Very well done sir! I like the objective, humble approach in mentioning factors that could take this either way. I also agree on the balance of warm & cold periods & nothing really "locking in" for the long haul.

Exactly! It's coupled but I disagree on how well it's coupled. I think Eric exaggerated his point. And while its coupled, it is its own flavor. To have as strong of an El Nino, based totally on SST's, & the main forcing to be that far west is indeed new territory based on the data we have. So, appealing to 1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98, & 2015-16 (which all had greatest forcing east of dateline with 97-98 being the furthest east) and then laughing is kind of strange. My take on this winter is nothing will surprise me. I think there's some reasons those who desire a blowtorch winter should be very concerned & those who love cold/snowy winters to be as well. A humble approach would be the best approach with this.

They will warm but not big time, or or at least based on what I'd consider "big-time".

You're conveniently calling an El Nino "east-based" based on SST's when in fact the main forcing has been west of the dateline the entire time. I'm surprised that Eric who has spent soooooo much time in the past pointing out how much that matters seems to say it means nothing now???? So list of things that "no longer" matter now: 1. SOI 2. MEI 3. Location of main forcing Wow! We're rewriting all the literature. Thanks

Yoda has spoken!

Paging Webb...

This winter will not be 2009-10 in my opinion but the progression of that winter should be remembered. Because it seems like when it gets warm in NOV anymore folks seem to want to write winter off which is nonsense. NOV, 2009 Temp anomalies 500mb NOV 1-10 NOV 10-20 NOV 20-30 DEC 1-10 DEC 10-20 DEC 20-31 DEC Temp Anomalies DEC 500mb DEC 15-31, the 2nd half of Dec was the coldest. Again, I'm in no way saying this winter will be a repeat of 2009-10. I'm simply saying don't get excited or despair this month. Let it all unfold. Don't jump to conclusions either way.

As a rule of thumb, we all know most El Ninos have that warm DEC either way but if it's a cold NOV it's a given DEC will warm.

It's a process. A repeated pattern like that will keep normal to below normal anomalies in the southern half over a period of time. Wave after wave simply moves across the CONUS. That's not a terrible pattern heading into DEC. I've seen worse for sure. Today's 12z EPS:

Jet ends up undercutting ridge in the 10-15 day range. A repeat of that would be welcomed heading into DEC.

Yea, that's what I was thinking, lol

The forcing comparison is just massive! I keep asking myself why some will not mention this? Like it doesn't matter? It matters!!! Great post on all Grit!