stadiumwave

Sounds good to me! Hope that wins out!

Yea, the goods last long in DEC than 1st half. I was really loose with wording. And of course, we have to break before Christmas & have temporary blowtorch to get through Christmas, ha.

It updated again though. The update briefly shifts trough west but then the -EPO comes back with a vengeance & it stays very wintry look through entire month of JAN with trough east. That is what led to whoever posted that on X. In the original X-post Roundy gives explantation of the tool: https://x.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1987512542269218907?t=NZtDEqvG5ceU83Q9TrzQ9g&s=19

Last year Roundy's tool was stellar!!!!

What did the EPS SPV forecast look like today?

SOI....climbing

NMME page is pure ugly if you like winter. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/monanom.shtml

I am totally up for a good ol traditional frontloaded DEC to 1st half of JAN winter. Roundy's tool updated & it looks great 1st 2 weeks of DEC & it all unravels after that. I need more than 2 weeks, lol.

Yea, when it's changes that much it makes you think how in the world can you put stock in an 11-15 day output.

Agree, but my point was last year missed.

Similar on PAC side but 25-26 forecast has more Atlantic blocking. Last year Euro had blocking too far west & totally missed Atlantic side blocking

Like what happened? I used to could post anything here.

@snowman19 will love Eric's x post https://x.com/webberweather/status/1984452081617682708?t=6qNVfSMRsFXJChnmC4f3RQ&s=19

New CanSips looks pretty good for DJF. Dec looks really good & Jan not shabby either. I would share but I cannot get anything to share on this forum anymore. Everything is too big. Good grief, it is 2025.

https://x.com/WeatherCast3/status/1983676660441608298?t=MkG2LcaKNgoy2livxLnTfQ&s=19 https://x.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1983600768579231901?t=9Rm6DaUjXjnWGAtakpFQ2g&s=19

Last 2 winters it has a hard time getting into phase 8. This might continue.

Sorry, not trying to be a smartguy. And no I do not have a ton of time to post, but I do read. And when you make a point about cooling SST's in NPAC as a slam dunk against a 2013 type blob, I felt it was very fair to give an accurate analysis. Personally, I do not think having a warm NPAC will equal some 2013-14 type winter, but that is beside the point. The NPAC on Oct 24th, 2013 is very similar to the current look with the exception that the current anomalies are warmer. Oct 24, 2013 Current And as far as when 2013 warmth returned tonthe Eastern NPAC it was not until the later part of DEC: NOV 14, 2013 DEC 15, 2013 Sorry, it ruffled your feathers.

If you're referring simply to the SST's in N Pac, I guess you have not bothered to look at the progression of the NPAC in Fall & Winter 2013?? NPAC went from emerging blob in Sept to colder than now in Oct & then warm again by the end of DEC. https://www.wxsphere.com/topic/729-winter-2025-2026/page/6/#findComment-127931 Go look for yourself: https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/sst/anomaly/2013.html

Are you sure about that? Looks clearly east. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml

@snowman19 is lagging

@greenskeeper how about you go challenge Roundy since you're so smart? You're the weenie. No objevtivity whatsoever. I bet you did not even read because that's what most of you do. You will NOT entertain any point from anyone that threatens you're own understanding. A closed mind is just a disgrace to science. I guess I'd understand if one were completely denying the science about "greenhouse gases". That is not what Roundy & many others are doing.

This is a golden chain of tweets from Paul Roundy, who is no denier, and is a brilliant Atmospheric Scientist. I highly encourage clicking the thread & reading objectively.