stadiumwave
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Everything posted by stadiumwave
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We too quickly buy as gospel LR guidance, which in my experience seems to be at its worst in the winter months. Best to take warmth or cold with a grain of salt.
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Great post! CFS: AO
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Dump west...bleed east
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Winter cancel? 0z EPS DEC 4
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You have the greatest hits of subjective posters (3 of them) feeding the general pessimism from the others. I mean I get it...typical year on weather forums, lol.
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You are about as objective as a politician answering questions during a press conference.
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Unless this data is wrong, then you are incorrect. 1983-84 winter was a -QBO winter.
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I am not sure why most are not hopeful for this winter when you simply look at -ENSO winters, with -QBO, & early strat warming (1981, 1983, 1995, 2000, 2017, 2021). On average, longer winters than the +QBO years by far. All those years had good DEC (although +QBO DEC were better) but JAN was the coldest on average in the east. FEB dealt with -EPO & SER combo but yielded to good blocky, colder MAR on average. FEB warmest anomaly wise.
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14 day forecast verification for PNA is pretty bad, more positive of the 14 day forecast...take note moving forward
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PNA forecast staying closer to neutral now & not as deeply negative & trends positive in later: And, PNA for the most part keeps verifying above forecasts: FWIW
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Hmmm....
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https://www.meteonetwork.it/models/mjo/ I recommend Paul Roundy's site as well. You can look at the MJO in different portions of each month based off research. Both phases 7 & 8 have their best responses in weeks 3&4 of DEC https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/index200reg.html
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BOM agrees...almost identical
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Even the European model as well. Today 0z verses the 17th 0z. Am I saying we will not have massive SER problems? Nope but I am not saying we definitely will either.
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For that reason, the climatology factor built into models is a factor in the low accuracy for now even in the medium range. GFS for 11/28 from the 14th model runs to today. Clearly, it is the expected to the observation:
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Again, yea. Maybe you did not read my post closely. Last year was a La Nina. There was a deep -PDO. I predicted a -PNA dominated winter & a very warm, low snow east & several did. Despite that, the winter defied the odds & was dominated by +PNA. All I am saying is that its weather....not always just simple. So a little humility is needed.
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Nearly a guidance is going more amped through 7 & then moving into 8 now. Canadian output is the lone exception
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So what was your guess last year during a La Nina dominated by +PNA? PDO was even more negative at this point last year. Could it be more -PNA? Yes! Is it a given? No!
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Can't you see how terrible that looks?? Its gotta be wrong until there's a run that has a deep trough in Cali & raging ridge in the East....then it's gospel. But do not worry, it is all objective with no subjectiveness at all. BTW, the posters I am messing with (you know who you are) I mean it all in total fun. You guys are actually really good posters!!
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Locked & loaded
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Phase 7 in DEC is usually a decent phase though??
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Look at Region 1 & 2
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Good ol Nina
