stadiumwave

I truly think this year, this Nino strengthening is more helpful than a fading Nino would be; especially with Nina looking atmospheric hangover signs at times. So I can't help but think the recent strengthening may be the culprit the the model change, as you said. I can't bite yet because I'm sooooo leary of winter season model performance in the last 5 years.

That's a cold pattern & a good southern slider & Apps runner, & Mid-Atlantic special pattern.

I'll argue that weather & climo thoughts have been hijacked by hysteria. Here is just a short list over te last 20 years of the new "permanent": -perma-drought in Texas > Whoops -perma-west coast ridge > whoops -perma SE ridge > will be a whoops Too much jumping to foolish conclusions due to all the hysteria. Hysteria is never good for any field of science. It leads to shallow, quick judgments & a complete inability to be objective. So, relative to a stuck perma-SE ridge talk, that's just stupid hysteria talk that belongs over in the "planet saver" forum...in my opinion; although the poster saying it is a good poster.

They all struggle. My point was that they ironically match up with Paul's MJO analogs.

Correct. Paul usually has a decent handle on when he thinks they're plausible or not. When he posts its because he really think they're dialed in. FWIW, today's Euro Weeklies eerily similar to Paul's MJO constructed analogs.

But you proceeded to post Webb's response to Roundy in agreement with that look & the 1880's El Nino winter pattern progression. So, are you actually disagreeing with Eric? Listen, Eric likes to piss people off NE people & Mets, so keep that in mind. While he does expect cold at some point in the east, he's trolling winter lovers in the east & will no say "much" about it. But he has indeed showed his cards a little for JAN/FEB.

Here is Dec in 5 day increments. The only torchy looking part is DEC 16-23. If it indeed played out in a similar way, that's not a bad strong El Nino Dec at all.

But don't forget that from 2002-2015 we had California folks blaming West coast ridging on CC. The SE ridge trend will eventually end as well.

If something massive does not occur with the SST's we gonna give @snowman19 heck, lol.

Late DEC, early JAN would line up with expectation. Often models see something in the future but jump on it too soon. With that said I wouldn't trust it either way past 10 days.

Good thread. I'm not sure how this can be written off. Get as creative as you want...this is different.

I'm pretty sure Eric is. @snowman19 knows Eric I think. If I remember correctly from the AccuWeather days. Eric used to post quiet a bit at 33andrain as well. I'm pretty sure Paul could care less about weather forums.

But we've been hearing this since September by Paul, Eric, posters here...etc. I'm not saying we will not warm but at some point everyone has to admit that what they thought would occur in Oct & early NOV has not. Instead, they just keep moving the needle. So, is it not possible their future predictions may not transpire to their hype? It's plausible to consider. Can you not objectively say that? They can't.

There is going to be more warming just not sure it's enough or in time to make a massive difference.

You're not getting it. We've learned so much but there's so much we do not know. Most Climatologist will tell you the same. I'm not saying anything other than that.

Just wait until that next WWB! It'll hit 3.0 in all regions except 4.

Then it's not C02. It doesn't work that way. C02 induced is more of a gradual issue. There maybe other factors that are not understood as of yet, like the massive amount of water vapor produced by Tonga. There's just so much about our climate system we do not understand, as much as we've learned the last century, the field of climatology is relatively young.

Paul explained why the heat release was immediate, very similar to 1877-78, rather than typical Nino spike. Again, Paul argues this event is unique even compared to 2015-16 although that Nino was stronger yet did not affect global patterns to the extent this one has per Paul. BTW, I'm not a Gavin Schmidt fan. I think he's dirty & untrustworthy. The same with Michael Mann who I think is a crook & a massive jerk. I'm not a denier at all, but I detest propaganda. It hurts science in the long run...maybe even in the short run.

IRI Updated OCT Updated to compare Very similar but with less warmth in south central Canada. Just a small shade warmer in east CONUS.