stadiumwave

Amazing how quite You were amazingly quiet yesterday.

Of course, there is always a large spread in LR. I said the mean. The mean had been going above normal for several days...it is not now. That is why I shared it. There are a lot of members much, much weaker, even implying a possibility of maybe future warming.

Mean never gets to normal at all now throughout the forecast period.

The person who submitted a paper on this is who the bottom quote is from. Research is based on large SOI drops with strongest correlation of i think 21 points or greater. This drop was 39 points...so pretty strong correlation. Based on the research.

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1993264759794282993?t=BTUYDs0rjkTSzBtZFlACrg&s=19

15 day change

What SER, lol??

Ensemble confirmation: GEFS 0z, 12z, tonight 0z And we're putting stock in 3-4 weeks model output??? Lol

Look at the Canadian 0z, 12, 0z comparison in temps. Under 120 hrs with that kind of change is criminal

And it is not just GFS...Canadian does the same...much colder

I mean...this one little detail south of Alaska is pretty massive! Whoops...

If models are going to be this bad its going to be a long winter. Last 4 GFS runs for this weekend

Watch East Asia (EAR)

RRWT model, which is based on rosby waves (Josh Herman's model), has persistently shown a cold Christmas for a good while. This was yesterday's update for dates Dec 24-28: 500mb

Change of Euro OP over last 3 runs for late period I figured it was worthy to mention since some of the other runs were.

JMA looks like it is going to be the earliest to phase 8

Normal GEFS has it in phase 8 by DEC 6th now:

FWIW, 15 day changes

I am trying to figure out,is someone really saying it is not? And if so how can they say that?

Paul Roundy's experiential MJO forecast tool has this look by DEC 14th...just updated. https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/indexmjo.htmlGree Very suppressed SER with big time -EPO & bridge block to Greenland.

https://x.com/judah47/status/1992608265507946858?t=ykLy8c-MkGuGLusD9eZevQ&s=19

Yep, its about the cold & pattern of the period. Obviously I posted a 7 day mean of 2013 & only one specific frame of today's 12z GFS. The system on the GFS is very similar to the system in early DEC 2013. Not making a point about the entire winter.

12z suites showing a big cold dump in rockies, great plains & midwest with a pattern very early DEC 2013 looking. The pattern produced some ice & snow in the MW & OV as well back in 2013. Below you can click the link & watch the 2m Temp progression over that week. Underneath image you will click on "Go Forward one day": https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/composites/comp.day.pl?var=2m+Air+Temperature&level=Surface&iy[1]=&im[1]=&id[1]=&iy[2]=&im[2]=&id[2]=&iy[3]=&im[3]=&id[3]=&iy[4]=&im[4]=&id[4]=&iy[5]=&im[5]=&id[5]=&iy[6]=&im[6]=&id[6]=&iy[7]=&im[7]=&id[7]=&iy[8]=&im[8]=&id[8]=&iy[9]=&im[9]=&id[9]=&iy[10]=&im[10]=&id[10]=&iy[11]=&im[11]=&id[11]=&iy[12]=&im[12]=&id[12]=&iy[13]=&im[13]=&id[13]=&iy[14]=&im[14]=&id[14]=&iy[15]=&im[15]=&id[15]=&iy[16]=&im[16]=&id[16]=&iy[17]=&im[17]=&id[17]=&iy[18]=&im[18]=&id[18]=&iy[19]=&im[19]=&id[19]=&iy[20]=&im[20]=&id[20]=&monr1=12&dayr1=1&monr2=12&dayr2=1&iyr[1]=2013&filenamein=&plotlabel=&lag=0&labelc=Color&labels=Shaded&type=2&scale=&label=0&skip_vector=&cint=&lowr=&highr=&istate=0&proj=North+America&xlat1=&xlat2=&xlon1=&xlon2=&custproj=Cylindrical+Equidistant&level1=1000mb&level2=10mb&Submit=Create+Plot

The can be a lag. I know Roundy has said such a common mistake is to think MJO phase correlation automatically or immediately shows up. Both are a mistake to think.

To your point...DEC, 2010. First half of DEC was in low-amp MJO phases 3,4,5,6 (blue line is DEC): Here are the 2m Temps for DEC 1-20: Certainly other factors can override MJO.