stadiumwave

Actually not the -QBO years with anykind of early strat warming. JAN is the coldest in that analog package. Will not be this year but just saying.

0z model suite...quit the changes. GFS got on board with strat warming event that clearly is the cause for the bridge block late in run as it couples with troposphere: 10mb 50mb I'd say that was the reason the 18z AI -Euro model had a massive bridge blocking:

European & Canadian 12z products show another stratospheric warming event in the late period. GFS products had only minor. But the 12z Eurp OP, EPS products & the Canadian spilt the PV at 10mb & 50mb. Here's the Euro OP: 50mb 10mb The EPS control is more aggressive with the strat warmth. Regardless of how strong this should continue to prevent the STP from getting carried away & increase chances of HLB. Hopefully, at some point maybe favorable. Right now it is just a "take note" & see if this goes anywhere.

Yesterday forecast: Today:

Phase 5 is a blowtorch until you get to May.

NOV 26 colder started in phase 6 headed into phase 7 & then into phase 8 through DEC 6. Here is the pattern NOV26-DEC 8 It appears the MJO did indeed influence the pattern....pretty strongly.

Agree on the end of month, but disagree on JAN. The best analogs have JAN as the coldest month. So, I think based on the law of averages, we have a decent shot of seeing at least a period of winter in JAN.

From Paul Roundy: "Base state supports Bering Strait and Greenland blocking, with troughing in the eastern US. A fast component of the MJO signal moves through Indian basin to Maritime Continent 15-30 Dec offsetting the cold eastern US signal and potentially forcing a period of warm anomalies in the eastern US."

Go look at all -QBO La Nina's that had any early strat warming (not full blown SSW). January is the coldest month with thise analogs unlike the +QBO LA Nina's that basically all end winter early JAN. No way to know if it shakes out that way but it is interesting nonetheless.

Some of the AI models are radically different on Day 10. It will be interesting to see which is modeled better.

I have thought all along we couple be looking at the end if DEC or early JAN.

There will be a warmup I think but hopefully short-lived.

Probably brief spike before a storm & does not see it clearly. But per Bering Sea rule, expect a ridge in the east at the end of month. Could be temporary but not exactly sure.

EURO Seasonal updated...here is Dec

If you're on the east coast more moisture will be involved. Mostly everyone else its clipper type systems...which can produce, but not your big winter storms. The exception may be potential around the 12th.

Ha, don't think so..

I honestly wonder if winter forecasts should be redone & use ENSO neutral analogs. This La Nina is dying fast!!! SOI is absolutely tanking

I think we are going to see plenty of cold but the pattern is going to be overall dry...maybe clippers...etc. I think the 12z CMC has a better handle on the next 10 days over the GFS. It's not a great winter storm pattern by any means.

N. PAC Current 30 day change

SOI has been tanking since NOV 23. Only one day of substantial + since then.

Yes, models have been terrible. Don't anyone try to convince me otherwise. Is it just me or does model performance seem to tank during winter months almost every year?

Paul Roundy said it, dude is a genius so I am not bold enough to argue! But you're a pretty sharp cookie yourself Don, you're allowed, lol. Good post!

Paul Roundy's tool updated today. Wowzers!! Winter pattern through the end of JAN. We'll see. https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/indexmjoertap.html Roundy on X today said he gives a 60% chance of the east U.S. getting cold in Feb as well.