stadiumwave

Euro, Day 10 10mb 50mb

Best MJO tool available compliments of Paul Roundy. It has 360 days, click on phase & time of year & it'll give you the average composite. https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/index200reg.html Here's early NOV phase 7 vs late DEC phase 7: NOV 7, Phase 7 DEC 27, Phase 7 OCT 8, Phase 8 DEC 27, Phase 8 It's the best MJO tool I've used for time of year phase expectations. There are other factors I know & it's not perfect but no MJO tool is. This is based on extensive research & Paul is a true MJO expert.

Best MJO tool available compliments of Paul Roundy. It has 360 days, click on phase & time of year & it'll give you the average composite. https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/index200reg.html Here's early NOV phase 7 vs late DEC phase 7: NOV 7, Phase 7 DEC 27, Phase 7 OCT 8, Phase 8 DEC 27, Phase 8 It's the best MJO tool I've used for time of year phase expectations. There are other factors I know & it's not perfect but no MJO tool is. This is based on extensive research & Paul is a true MJO expert.

Euro Seasonal Update DEC JAN FEB MAR

Euro Seasonal Update DEC JAN FEB MAR

Interestingly, something similar occurred at the end of October. I'd look it up but ESRL is down at the moment. Obviously the implications are greater now than then...just thought it was interesting that it's a repeat.

Both daily SST's of today:

Even Roundy says there will be some brief cooling.

He just trolls winter lovers every now & then but he's usually actually targeting JB.

That thread is golden!! Really a great educated explanation of where things are more than likely moving! I scratch my head as to why @snowman19only posts certain tweets of Eric's. @snowman19I'm just messing with you! Ha!

JMA new December Forecast Most of big cold in Europe & Asia, but that's certainly not a blowtorch CONUS. JMA old DEC forecast Also is a reminder not to put much stock in Seasonal model updates coming up for JAN/FEB.

In light of recent blocking it makes one wonder why the models are failing so bad on predicting it.

No, wrong. Quite the opposite, high geomag corresponds to +NAO/+AO actually. Tony Pann is a weenie met just like Bastardi, Margavage, Mugusity Steve D and more recently Cosgrove Basically the list is any dissenting thought from the cult, lol. But you are correct on the geomag. Anthony Masiello has a good handle on that. Where did that dude go?

That's not why I chose the name. But I do like Judith Curry. You picked 3 years, which IS a small sample size. We're talking El Nino. And I didn't cherry pick anything.

Oh brother more CC. If you would just look at the individual years it doesn't appear that way as it did when you use a blend to smooth it over. And it's just not good science to use a small sample size of 3 winters, which individually don't correlate as well as you're indicating, and then draw robust conclusions.

So 8 El Ninos. Only 3 were on the colder side in the period you mentioned...since 2002. 2002-03, 2009-10, 2014-15 #1 The sample size is too small. And periods before that it certainly was not true. Some cold El Nino winters had mostly warmer than average falls. With that being the case, only 3 cold El Nino winters in the period you mention is not enough to draw a predictive correlation. #2 The correlation does not workout the way you said. On the cold years: 2002-2003 2009-10 2014-15 That does not work out in such a way, that one can look at that & predict. 2014-15 was the closest. Also, one of the years had a cold fall for most of CONUS & a mostly warm winter: 2006-07 So, the coldest fall nationwide of the 4 had the warmest winter of the 4. #3 The correlation is certainly not true when considering different parts of our large CONUS. BOTTOM LINE: We have to be careful that our subjective bias' to prove a point, does not lead us to see what we want to see. I'm not 100% accusing you of that because you're a great poster, but we certainly all have to be careful. When I look trough all the El Nino years we have good data on, the biggest take away is that on average most El Nino falls are cooler regardless of winter. And some warm falls have had really cold winters. Recent history is a mix.

I have to look into that myself. If that were the case & it were that simple, winter forecasting be a breeze. As bad as winter forecasting is every year by great MERS, I highly doubt this correlation stands.

I'm having trouble following your argument as well. A warm El Nino NOV does not indicate a warm winter. Here's NOV 2009 2023

Euro never makes it to Phase 3.

#1 -2009-10...I know you're all familar with. #2 1939-40...I'll post DJF & then a blend with 2009-10 DJF Blend

CFS forecasts -AO for entire month of DEC now