stadiumwave
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Everything posted by stadiumwave
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SST's from Euro update for DJF: DEC JAN FEB
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Another look. Webb may have a meltdown because JAN/FEB is rocking! Typic warmish Nino DEC. DEC JAN FEB FWIW, Euro drastically changed NOV from it's previous forecast. So keep in mind a lot can happen in a month that the models cannot foresee.
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Why does Eric never mention that the forcing is still much further west than you'd expect for an east based El Nino??? It's official! Eric Webb has canceled winter, so we a might as well spare ourselves, lol. I hope it's a freakish cold/snow fest, not simply because I love it, but simply to hold it over Webb, lol.
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This is definitely a hybrid & does not fall into classical categories. The west warming keeps it from being classical east & my suspicion is that's one reason why this Nino has consistently wanted to keep the forcing further west.
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Really? Why would Eric allow Bastardi's calling for a cold winter every year bother him? Like, who cares. I like Eric but I've watched him be unnecessarily snarky to many. BTW, his issue with Bastardi is not so much his AGW views.
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He always does & its annoying! He has constant consternation aimed at Bastardi.
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Yea, it's not bad. With the ENSO look I was expecting fantasy 500mb look, lol.
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CFS Weeklies, AO & NAO forecasts.
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One thing to keep in mind with these seasonal forecasts. A lot can change in a month for sure. Here's the October updates forecast for NOV: Here's the NOV update for NOV: Just a wee bit different.
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The ENSO looks further west to me than the October update. When I saw that I was expecting some spectacular 500mb. So, really you're correct.
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Cansips...not real good. The ENSO look is "almost" modoki-ish, yet the 500mb is much worse than last update. DEC JAN FEB MAR From the ENSO look I would've expected JAN to be much better. DEC is an improvement.... ...but JAN/Feb took a step back from October update. MAR looks good. To be honest I just dont have a lot of confidence in seasonal guidance whether it be good or bad.
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Just saw this: I just wish i knew where they got it?? They are the only ones I've seen have access. ????
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Yea, I was so bummed last night when it did not update on tropical tidbits. I'm just mad today because it still has not, lol.
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Really good analysis! My conclusions are very similar.
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Eric is very,very good! He's a good dude as well; however, if you don't see it exactly the way he does you're a blatant fo in his eyes,lol. A lot of his rhetoric is aimed at Bastardi.
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I don't know where to share this, so I'm sharing here in case it becomes useful: https://phys.org/news/2023-10-volcanic-eruptions-dampen-indian-ocean.amp
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I go back further with him than most on here, to a forum that no longer exists. I have no problem with him personally & he's a good forecaster in general. We've just always given him a hard time for SW bias. I was not trying to decapitate him, lol.
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He's from Albuquerque, New Mexico & likes cold & snow out west. And he's predicted it when there was no rhyme or reason to. Besides that you're wrong: 2013-14, 2014-15, 2017-18, 2020-21 were good in eastern half in many places. I'm not trying to throw mud in the mix but his expectations year in & out are a rinse & repeat regardless of the factors.
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I don't think I've ever seen you predict anything but warmth in the east & cold for SW for the laser decade,lol.
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I know we have this westerly wind event going on, but after looking at all the data it doesn't seem to be having much effect on the SST's. In fact it even appears there's been further warming in 3.4 in the last 15 days, And some further cooling in regions 1 and 2. So the effect may be minimal when all is said and done. Last 15 days:
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Typically, east based El Ninos are warm east, cold west on average. But it's also worth noting there is variation in ENSO events; nothing is cookie cutter.
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He expects the El Nino to strengthen & Region 1 & 2 to warm again & Region 4 to cool, which would look more east based. My thoughts: with that said the forcing has stayed west the entirety of this El Nino. So, if that stays the way the weather pattern will not function like a typical east-based El Nino, which is good.
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JAMSTEC updated... 2m Temps...all members mean Precip JAMSTEC does not produce a 500mb map. Also it uses 108 ensemble members that come from 3 groups. One of those 3 groups is really cold but is offset by one that is warm. One was unavailable. Here's the group of members that were really cold, just for giggles:
