stadiumwave

CFS Weeklies sure changed for the first week of DEC

So most models have MJO in either phase 8 or 1 to start DEC. It's not a very high amplitude but is this truly MJO? I know that the RMM does not always reflect reality.

They've been awful!

But that next Kelvin Wave, like those strong westerlies, will bump it up to 2.5. Oh wait, the westerlies didn't bump it up. I feel like for 6 weeks, it's always that next big thing....and this Nino will show its monstrosity....except it never does.

UKMET

Can you post January?

Correct. Which would not be surprising. However, the weeklies have been pretty much worthless past day 10 for a while. So while we probably should have the expectation of warm I do not think the weeklies have a hold of the pattern

It's only really super when it can sustain it on the ONI...3 mthn. Ain't happening.

BINGO!!! I just do not think people are being honest with themselves. Too much desire for many to say "I told you so". The event is a hybrid type & not textbook anything,which is why the indexes are so skewed more with this event.

You're overkill. Everyone needs to be objective. There's too much subjectivity your way & the other. The middle ground will win the day.

Much better than Mondays update! And thanks!

Anyone have the stratosphere forecast graph from today's Euro Weeklies?

Hmmm....

I love Paul, but I've noticed the same with his tools. And he has been using big adjectives about the Nino with everything that occurs (+IOD, last wind burst...etc.) & its resulted in pretty much nothing each time. I wonder why he's not being a little more cautious with his descriptive terms? He's not usually the "hype" type.

Looks good to me. I'd take that DEC anyday verses what a Nino DEC can be.

That's pretty telling.

Obviously warmish on 2m temps verses the norm on most seasonal models always anymore.

It is in ENSO SST anomaly structure, also the -PDO, but the QBO & forcing is different. As Gritear & Wiz both showed in their forecasts, the forcing is very similar to 2002-03, & 2009-10.

Very well done sir! I like the objective, humble approach in mentioning factors that could take this either way. I also agree on the balance of warm & cold periods & nothing really "locking in" for the long haul.

Exactly! It's coupled but I disagree on how well it's coupled. I think Eric exaggerated his point. And while its coupled, it is its own flavor. To have as strong of an El Nino, based totally on SST's, & the main forcing to be that far west is indeed new territory based on the data we have. So, appealing to 1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98, & 2015-16 (which all had greatest forcing east of dateline with 97-98 being the furthest east) and then laughing is kind of strange. My take on this winter is nothing will surprise me. I think there's some reasons those who desire a blowtorch winter should be very concerned & those who love cold/snowy winters to be as well. A humble approach would be the best approach with this.

They will warm but not big time, or or at least based on what I'd consider "big-time".