stadiumwave

Jamstec & JMA are not the same. JMA https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/ JAMSTEC https://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/e/seasonal/outlook.html

DJF JAN

It does not offer 2m temps. It just shows the 850mb temps. And to be honest, 2m temps are the lowest skill part of seasonal forecast models. I usually never post them even on models where they are available, unless that's all that is available. I'd rather see a 500mb mean, which usually paints the better picture.

JMA updated & like UKMET...it's about as sweet of a 3 mnth mean as you'll see. DJF JMA gives a seasonal outlook, which is the winter months of DJF above but you can't get the individual months from it. But JMA alao gives a 3 month outlook every month, so this month its NDJ. So, I can get DEC & JAN individual months from the 3 mnth outlook. DEC JAN Next month we'll be able to see FEB as well. Take away is DEC looks decent in the plains & OV. JAN is a freaking winter fantasy map!!! I'm sure FEB is as well from looking at the DJF mean. Let me add the ENSO profile for anyone interested. Key note is region 1&2 continue to fall & most of the warmer waters are in regions 3 & 3.4. Pretty strong El Nino forecast.

1870's is the benchmark. Probably the strongest El Nino going back to 1850.

1982-83, 97-98, 2015-16 had 2.0+ ONI from August to February. He's not expecting that.

Neither of those years were after a triple La Nina.

Paul means historical in the sense of where we came from, a triple La Nina. He says the turn around from LA Nina to a strong El Nino of this magnitude in the same year is unheard since 1870's. Paul does not expect an El Nino of the magnitude of 2015-16 but does expect ONI to top 2.0 for one period either NDJ or DJF.

They all have strengths & weaknesses. Personally, Iike: Euro, UKMET, JMA, & CanSips. Blend the 4 in Nov & roll with it. I'm 100% not a fam of the CFS. It's eradic. It's monthly forecast is sometimes good.

UKMET Updated: DJF, 500mb JFM, 500mb DJF, ENSO:

UKMET updated, really nice DEC-MAR DJF: JFM DJF: ENSO

Paul was asked that question & responded:

Probably not...like I said for interest & fun. But his MJO tools are really good in a shorter term.

I'll throw this out there, just for interest & fun. Paul Roundy's MJO tools showing a big -EPO in early DEC: https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/indexmjo.html

EURO Seasonal Updated DEC JAN FEB

Like to hear Paul kind of in line with some others. Thanks

Did he mention any thoughts on what he thought winter would hold?

Paul is an absolute giant of an expert. His peer-reviwed paper on this is in 2nd tweet:

Here are the CanSip ensemble member 2m Temps from the update I posted yesterday: DEC JAN FEB

CFS has AO going negative for entire month which is most of the time a good indicator of PV staying relatively weak. Now, there could be major decoupling & that not be true.