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stadiumwave

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Everything posted by stadiumwave

  1. stadiumwave
    They all have strengths & weaknesses. Personally, Iike: Euro, UKMET, JMA, & CanSips. Blend the 4 in Nov & roll with it. I'm 100% not a fam of the CFS. It's eradic. It's monthly forecast is sometimes good.
  2. stadiumwave
    UKMET Updated: DJF, 500mb JFM, 500mb DJF, ENSO:
  3. stadiumwave
    UKMET updated, really nice DEC-MAR DJF: JFM DJF: ENSO
  4. stadiumwave
  5. stadiumwave
    Paul was asked that question & responded:
  6. stadiumwave
    Probably not...like I said for interest & fun. But his MJO tools are really good in a shorter term.
  7. stadiumwave
    I'll throw this out there, just for interest & fun. Paul Roundy's MJO tools showing a big -EPO in early DEC: https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/indexmjo.html
  8. stadiumwave
    EURO Seasonal Updated DEC JAN FEB
  9. stadiumwave
    Like to hear Paul kind of in line with some others. Thanks
  10. stadiumwave
    Did he mention any thoughts on what he thought winter would hold?
  11. stadiumwave
    Paul is an absolute giant of an expert. His peer-reviwed paper on this is in 2nd tweet:
  12. stadiumwave
    Here are the CanSip ensemble member 2m Temps from the update I posted yesterday: DEC JAN FEB
  13. stadiumwave
    CFS has AO going negative for entire month which is most of the time a good indicator of PV staying relatively weak. Now, there could be major decoupling & that not be true.
  14. stadiumwave
    No seasonal model has much skill outside of a month. So the take away is more a take away of themes & trends rather than specifics.
  15. stadiumwave
    CanSips Updated: DEC JAN FEB
  16. stadiumwave
    Surprise, surprise! Typical climo NOAA outlook, yawn. However, not all that dissimilar to the latest IRI.
  17. stadiumwave
    IRI Updated TEMP Probabilities Link: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/
  18. stadiumwave
  19. stadiumwave
    It's just guidance. Not a forecast for sure.
  20. stadiumwave
    JAMSTEC Updated...big winter like EURO, CanSips, & JMA. UKMET all alone at the moment: DJF 2m Temps DJF Precip There's 3 groups of ensembles totalling 108 members. 2 of those groups of ensembles are really cold. https://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/e/seasonal/outlook.html
  21. stadiumwave
    JMA updated its first DJF outlook: **Individual months only go out to DEC on the 3 month outlook. Dec is a typical warmer El Nino Dec. So the above look is very JAN/FEB weighted. **The look above is very similar to 2002-03:
  22. stadiumwave
    Good stuff!
  23. stadiumwave
  24. stadiumwave
    Anyone remember the December 23-26, 2010 Winter Storm? Midwest storm occluded & formed a east coast low. Brought heavy snow Midwest, light snows in OV & heavy snow in NE. One of the GFS runs kind of hints at something like that & the Ensemble mean 500mb pattern favors it. Not saying it's happening, it's pastday 10 lol. I'm just sharing: If you walk the 500mb through day by day of the 2010 Winter storm its almost exactly like above.
  25. stadiumwave
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