stadiumwave

No one should be surprised of a backloaded winter during an El Nino winter. That's typical how it works on average. DEC is usually above normal. With that said, it doesn't mean a warmer than average DEC can't have a cool down & snowstorm. So....Larry Cosgroves ideas are an expected average.

I just finished compiling my analog years for my winter outlook. May change a year or two depending on how Nov evolves. I'll have a final analog blend by Thanksgiving. For now: 1951-52 1957-58 1963-64 1977-78 1986-87 1987-88 1994-95 2002-03 × 2 2006-07 2009-10 2014-15 The blend yields a colder than average from Texas to Maine. Back loaded winter. Warm DEC, JAN-MAR colder. My thoughts have changed a little since my preliminary thoughts but not too much. The biggest change in though is a stronger El Nino than originally thought. I was originally thinking a very weak El Nino, but looking like now a weak to weak moderate.

NOAA's departures make little sense. Has a west ridge, +PNA, -EPO look with a troughiness in the east U.S. & the have EC where trough is...lol. That's NOAA for you

Yes. I agree. I'm not worried at all about a warm winter based on 2011-12 reasons, if we had one it would be more warm Nino reasons. Everything points so much towards a great chance of some good winter periods in the east U.S. that it's almost to good to be true. I'm very optimistic but have a degree or 2 of pessimism & caution.

I really like winter. Can't help but laugh at myself. When it's a hot October I get nervous about winter. When it gets cold in October & patter looks like LR 11-15 I get nervous about winter thinking of 2011-12, which had a great October pattern. That's how subjective we can be. Objectively speaking, I've learned to deal with my subjective side with real conclusion October doesn't always mean much of anything for winter either way. Can there be some clues? Yes...but not usually the monthly 500mb mean.

A lot of blocking in AO & NAO region during JAN/FEB

The warm blob in the GOA & Bering Sea is really getting steamy. Can't really find any years where that whole region was a warm blob. Theres the GOA warm blob DJF in 2013...but ot does not compare: Of course theres 2014 where the entire east PAC was on fire: Something to keep an eye on. When there are large positive anomalies in that part of PAC during winter it's been known to bode well in east U.S. And no...I'm not saying the warmer than average anomalies drive the pattern but rather are indicative of it. The strong NW Canadian ridging UKMET, Euro, & JAMSTEC advertise for winter probably will come to fruition.

This is key. Not sure why so many think if you use an analog it means you think "carbon copy". I choose several analogs. One may chosen because of QBO, another because of ENSO, another PDO, another solar. That's how I compile an analog blend.

JAMSTEC just updated. Big improvement from last month. With no 500mb maps it's hard to tell. Nino is moderate hybrid-modoki. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/e/seasonal/outlook.html Overall not too bad but not as good as UKMET & EURO. We now await the JMA, which is taking longer than usual to update.

I can understand adding those years to a large analog blend, but not putting a large weight on them. Hard to imagine double weighting those years. I'd use late 1970's before I'd use late 1980's early 1990's. Again, with that said I'd use them all in a large analog blend.

Use caution when adding any years in the late 1980's & early 1990's as analog years. Due to volcanic eruptions & ozone depletion in the northern hemisphere those years can be skewed. I know those years are becoming popular due to +NAO, but those years had more predominant +NAO for a reason....and it was not ENSO, and very minimally because of -AMO.

UKMET Seasonal model updated...& oh my! Similar to the European seasonal but colder in U.S. overall. Everyone east of Rockies below normal temps. Above normal precip on the east coast & STJ looks to be active. UKMET is truly a winter lovers dream in the east: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean Let me add: -EPO driven; however, noticeably more blocking as winter moves along in the AO & NAO regions.

NMME page updated today. Most of the models have more of a basin wide El Nino look.

Yes. I think he's referring to the precip anomalies; however, I would point out sometimes the best snows are NW of the above normal precip until you get to the coast. QPF usually higher in the warmer sides of storms & near coast. Winter 1978 is a great example, it was one of the snowiest winters ever in my area yet we were below normal for precip for the winter. Euro precip anomalies for winter look very 2009-10ish. 500mb not very 2009-10ish....not much -NAO very -EPO driven.

Euro Seasonal update looks like porn to a winter lover. Hybrid-Modoki, Nino & moderate

Here's our last 5 Octobers: Last 5 winters:

End of September through the first week of October, 2002 So, don't read too much into October. Remember that October 2011? And who could forget the horrendous DEC-JAN pattern that winter?

East based -NAO favors plains/OV. West based favors easy coast

If October turns out as forecasted then keep in mind Oct 2002 & 2009 had western trough/east/SE ridge combo. 2002 closer than 2009, both stronger +ENSO at that point Of course ridge forecasted is on steroids.

2014-15 still seems to be a really strong analog....+NAO I think continues. As westerlies kick in & a very weak El Nino matures look for +PNA/-EPO pattern to emerge as we get close to winter. Just my opinion

Atmosphere thinks it's El Nino & forcing is in CP #modoki https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1040922607393157121?s=19

Yea...that analog scares me

So...again, you're not getting the point. I'm NOT arguing about the fact that statistically odds decrease for a cold winter in tn valley after a warm NOV. I'm arguing that your word "NEVER" (used in your original post in reaction to JMA) is wrong & you just unknowingly admitted that in your post above. Chances of a cold winter after a warm NOV may decrease significantly but they are NOT eliminated. A -PNA NOV is not a guarantee of a -PNA DJF. That's all I'm arguing. Hence my pointing out the cold winter years in your 40 years...which destroys the word "NEVER". Not sure I can break it down anymore than that.

When averaging that many years it only takes a few extremes to really mess with blend. I recommend going through all the winters you listed in the warm NOV. There were some really good winters. There were also a few extremely warm winters that skew the mean. Point is if we have a warm NOV it is not cancel winter.

2014 is a bad example. 2014 was 100% because of recurring typhoon Nuri bottoming out in the Bering Sea. Caused a monster ridge & trough. But NOV 1977, 1986, 2009 were all torch NOV. And all of those were modoki winters & 2 of them cold & snowy ones. Can't use the word "never" when it comes to weather.