stadiumwave
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Everything posted by stadiumwave
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No seasonal model has much skill outside of a month. So the take away is more a take away of themes & trends rather than specifics.
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CanSips Updated: DEC JAN FEB
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Surprise, surprise! Typical climo NOAA outlook, yawn. However, not all that dissimilar to the latest IRI.
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IRI Updated TEMP Probabilities Link: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/
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It's just guidance. Not a forecast for sure.
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JAMSTEC Updated...big winter like EURO, CanSips, & JMA. UKMET all alone at the moment: DJF 2m Temps DJF Precip There's 3 groups of ensembles totalling 108 members. 2 of those groups of ensembles are really cold. https://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/e/seasonal/outlook.html
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JMA updated its first DJF outlook: **Individual months only go out to DEC on the 3 month outlook. Dec is a typical warmer El Nino Dec. So the above look is very JAN/FEB weighted. **The look above is very similar to 2002-03:
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Good stuff!
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Anyone remember the December 23-26, 2010 Winter Storm? Midwest storm occluded & formed a east coast low. Brought heavy snow Midwest, light snows in OV & heavy snow in NE. One of the GFS runs kind of hints at something like that & the Ensemble mean 500mb pattern favors it. Not saying it's happening, it's pastday 10 lol. I'm just sharing: If you walk the 500mb through day by day of the 2010 Winter storm its almost exactly like above.
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Good morning! JMA new DEC 500mb
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12z Euro 10mb 50mb
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SE ridge will appear but very short lived.
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Models are busting bad on the MJO. They liked to have never come around to the fact it would make it out of phase 7. But even when they came around they've had it barely in Phase 8 & headed to the COD. Well...its still chugging along. I'd disregard LR modeling with models not getting MJO correct...and that will be reflected in models. Hopefully that get a better hunch of what's MJO is going to do.
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Latest CFS Weeklies AO & NAO forecast As seen above changes begin middle of NOV. 500mb to end NOV through mid-DEC looks good on that update:
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Golden thread from Eric Webb. I highly encourage a click & read.
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Yes, it was February before winter ended.
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For the Northern Hemisphere or regional? Regional temp & precip may be misleading. I like to look for similar pieces in the entire northern hemisphere.
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September 1 - October 21 500mb Can't really find any La Nina years for the same period resembling a match.
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What happened to him? He ok?
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