stadiumwave
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Everything posted by stadiumwave
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Paul was asked that question & responded:
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Probably not...like I said for interest & fun. But his MJO tools are really good in a shorter term.
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I'll throw this out there, just for interest & fun. Paul Roundy's MJO tools showing a big -EPO in early DEC: https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/indexmjo.html
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EURO Seasonal Updated DEC JAN FEB
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Like to hear Paul kind of in line with some others. Thanks
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Did he mention any thoughts on what he thought winter would hold?
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Paul is an absolute giant of an expert. His peer-reviwed paper on this is in 2nd tweet:
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Here are the CanSip ensemble member 2m Temps from the update I posted yesterday: DEC JAN FEB
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CFS has AO going negative for entire month which is most of the time a good indicator of PV staying relatively weak. Now, there could be major decoupling & that not be true.
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No seasonal model has much skill outside of a month. So the take away is more a take away of themes & trends rather than specifics.
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CanSips Updated: DEC JAN FEB
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Surprise, surprise! Typical climo NOAA outlook, yawn. However, not all that dissimilar to the latest IRI.
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IRI Updated TEMP Probabilities Link: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/
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It's just guidance. Not a forecast for sure.
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JAMSTEC Updated...big winter like EURO, CanSips, & JMA. UKMET all alone at the moment: DJF 2m Temps DJF Precip There's 3 groups of ensembles totalling 108 members. 2 of those groups of ensembles are really cold. https://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/e/seasonal/outlook.html
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JMA updated its first DJF outlook: **Individual months only go out to DEC on the 3 month outlook. Dec is a typical warmer El Nino Dec. So the above look is very JAN/FEB weighted. **The look above is very similar to 2002-03:
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Good stuff!
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Anyone remember the December 23-26, 2010 Winter Storm? Midwest storm occluded & formed a east coast low. Brought heavy snow Midwest, light snows in OV & heavy snow in NE. One of the GFS runs kind of hints at something like that & the Ensemble mean 500mb pattern favors it. Not saying it's happening, it's pastday 10 lol. I'm just sharing: If you walk the 500mb through day by day of the 2010 Winter storm its almost exactly like above.
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Good morning! JMA new DEC 500mb
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12z Euro 10mb 50mb
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SE ridge will appear but very short lived.
