stadiumwave

The ENSO looks further west to me than the October update. When I saw that I was expecting some spectacular 500mb. So, really you're correct.

Cansips...not real good. The ENSO look is "almost" modoki-ish, yet the 500mb is much worse than last update. DEC JAN FEB MAR From the ENSO look I would've expected JAN to be much better. DEC is an improvement.... ...but JAN/Feb took a step back from October update. MAR looks good. To be honest I just dont have a lot of confidence in seasonal guidance whether it be good or bad.

Just saw this: I just wish i knew where they got it?? They are the only ones I've seen have access. ????

Yea, I was so bummed last night when it did not update on tropical tidbits. I'm just mad today because it still has not, lol.

Really good analysis! My conclusions are very similar.

Eric is very,very good! He's a good dude as well; however, if you don't see it exactly the way he does you're a blatant fo in his eyes,lol. A lot of his rhetoric is aimed at Bastardi.

I don't know where to share this, so I'm sharing here in case it becomes useful: https://phys.org/news/2023-10-volcanic-eruptions-dampen-indian-ocean.amp

I go back further with him than most on here, to a forum that no longer exists. I have no problem with him personally & he's a good forecaster in general. We've just always given him a hard time for SW bias. I was not trying to decapitate him, lol.

He's from Albuquerque, New Mexico & likes cold & snow out west. And he's predicted it when there was no rhyme or reason to. Besides that you're wrong: 2013-14, 2014-15, 2017-18, 2020-21 were good in eastern half in many places. I'm not trying to throw mud in the mix but his expectations year in & out are a rinse & repeat regardless of the factors.

I don't think I've ever seen you predict anything but warmth in the east & cold for SW for the laser decade,lol.

I know we have this westerly wind event going on, but after looking at all the data it doesn't seem to be having much effect on the SST's. In fact it even appears there's been further warming in 3.4 in the last 15 days, And some further cooling in regions 1 and 2. So the effect may be minimal when all is said and done. Last 15 days:

Typically, east based El Ninos are warm east, cold west on average. But it's also worth noting there is variation in ENSO events; nothing is cookie cutter.

He expects the El Nino to strengthen & Region 1 & 2 to warm again & Region 4 to cool, which would look more east based. My thoughts: with that said the forcing has stayed west the entirety of this El Nino. So, if that stays the way the weather pattern will not function like a typical east-based El Nino, which is good.

JAMSTEC updated... 2m Temps...all members mean Precip JAMSTEC does not produce a 500mb map. Also it uses 108 ensemble members that come from 3 groups. One of those 3 groups is really cold but is offset by one that is warm. One was unavailable. Here's the group of members that were really cold, just for giggles:

It's the combo of that & +IOD. Now, good news is +IOD is forecasted to weaken by most guidance. So, we'll just have to wait & see. Weather is never about just one thing.

If you want to worry, this is your worry:

My take away is it simply weakens the PV...for now. I will say I would rather it happen now than let's say early November. Now if occur it occurred again in a November or a December...great! Now it certainly can temporarily affect the pattern. But as far as it meaning anything for winter I don't think we could say it does. What the PV actually does has its greatest effects mid-december on whether for good or bad.

GEFS Ensemble Mean splits the strat PV at 10mb & 50mb on Day 11 The plot certainly thickens now. Pinatubo & Tonga were much different in what they spewed out. With Tonga being almost totally underwater it's largest effect will be the massive amounts of water vapor spewed into the atmosphere. We honestly don't know how much, what, or if any effect it might have. Some believe it may be a small contributor to the global spike this year in temps. Others disagree. Pinatuba spewed massive amounts of aerosols into the atmosphere that produced a massive cooling in the stratosphere that led to 6 winters of super +AO. Very few blocking episodes. Most scientists do not expect any such effect from Tonga.

I really like the strat PV showing signs of wanting to stay on the N American side. If that is a tendency this winter it would be nice. Have not had that in several winters. Obviously I would not put too much stock into it but worth noting.

This site has access to 15 day changes, if you're interested. https://cyclonicwx.com/sst.php

I don't know what impact this might have this early other than weaken the strat PV but on the European model have a split at 50mb & on its way to splitting at 10mb by day 10: 50mb 10mb

Actually you DO want 3.4 the warmest. 3 & 3.4 is fine. You don't want 1 & 2 being the warmest. While SST anomalies often indicate where the greatest forcing is in the tropics it's not always a given. That's actually what has the greatest impact on the patterns. So, overall JMA would be pretty good news if that panned out, but there's always so many variables that nothing is ever a given.