stadiumwave
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Everything posted by stadiumwave
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My Winter Outlook 2020-21
stadiumwave replied to Isotherm's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Is @Isotherm OK? I haven't seen one post from him on any forum. -
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To demonstrate what a worthless waste of time it is to post weeklies past 15 days: New NOV 30 Old NOV 30
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Well JB is JB...lol. I don't follow much. Uses too much hyperbolic language for me which will drive a literal person insane. The remnants of its life (coldest subsurface waters) is surfacing & the supply is empty after that.
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Very much so
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The coldest waters down in subsurface are in the process of surfacing but yes the Nina is dying. After the coolest waters surface in region 3 we will warm after that. Both are correct. Just look at the subsurface progression. Subsurface is warming. Coolest waters are moving to surface. Then...its over. Anyone looking at that Subsurface progression & thinking this Nina is getting stronger is smoking crack....bad....and in total denial.
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Guys, this Nina is dying fast per latest sub-surface:
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2021-2022 ENSO
stadiumwave replied to StormchaserChuck!'s topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
This La Nina is dying. Who would've thought a month ago? Lol @ CFS strong Nina forecast
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Yea it is interesting. I did the winters a year after minimum, since that is where we're at, since 1950:
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Weak signal though. Anything outside 10 days is really low skill anyway.
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I'm starting to lean away to fast start to winter. After a good 3-4th week of NOV expect a less favorable pattern. PV will strengthen until MJO wakes up. If it wakes up PV will take hits again mid-DEC leading to weakening, disruption, possibly a full blown SSW. JAN into 1st half of FEB may be the best potential before ridging takes over after that.
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Sorry, did not read any other post. Just chimed in & saw your post.
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Euro Weeklies...if it verifies close then likey. Like...good through DEC 10
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Most La Ninas have a -PDO average for DJF. Don't forget that 2010-11 was -PDO & cold. Bottom line: +PDO winters do not automatically = Cold winter -PDO winters do not automatically = Warm winter It's more complex than that.
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Right. BTW, was not saying this winter is going to be 2010-11. There are several years that serve as analogs for NPAC SST's in OCT: 1950, 1955, 1964, 1970, 1971, 2005, 2007, 2011, 2013. It's just amazing how different all those winters were...some polar opposites. BTW, 2007 is probably #1 match, but probably means zippo at this point. I'm just not a fan of typical climo, cookie-cutter predictions. It's not really yhat simple, which you of all I know...knows this.
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Of course, but then there's this: So many factors can make a massive difference.
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Later the better.
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I would not focus too much on NPAC SST's in early OCT. Rosby Wave trains in OCT/NOV often lead to great fluctuations in NPAC sst anomalies. Example...OCT 7, 2013: BTW, very close match to now. So is 2010. So is 2011. All of those years have wildly different winter outcomes. Here is NPAC SST by DEC 30, 2013: Point is early OCT NPAC SST's probably give no clue to winter. If NPAC looks like that mid-DEC then different story. It could go any number of ways right now.
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For everyone wanting to make a big deal about NPAC SST's in OCT like every year. Remember NPAC SST's are subject to large fluctuations in OCT/NOV. I give you SST's for October 7, 2013: October 7, 2021...CURRENT: Rosby wave activity in OCT/NOV leading to large fluctuations in NPAC SST's in short time periods, should prevent conclusions about winter using NPAC SST's at this point
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Unfortunately NMME page does not have 500mb.
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It's guidance. I wouldn't get too worked up yet at every detail. I would make note of a very strong cold source advertised. Keep on mind these models actually are decent only on a monthly forecast at the beginning of the month being predicted. If you've been following just about every model has not been doing well on the 2nd month out. But for sure the teleconnections stink on that update. CFS took a step in a good direction but has a longway to go for a good winter pattern.
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NMME Page...updated. Little change most notable is colder over western Canada. NMME Older NMME New CFS Older CFS New Canadian Older Canadian New NCAR Older NCAR New NASA Older NASA New
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Euro Seasonal Update....ugly NEW DEC OLD DEC NEW JAN OLD JAN NEW FEB OLD FEB Certainly it's not gospel but I do not like the trend. Hopefully NOV improves.
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Throw those in & OCT is not as currently forecasted. My blend is not a forecast. I'm simply showing which analogs come up with the best OCT forecasted match. I then simply shared what that blend would look like for winter. Ironically the blend is all 2nd year -ENSO. It's interesting & is info for others to take into account when putting together a winter outlook. Just another slice of the pie.
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An interesting blend: 1996-97, 2000-01, 2008-09, 2017-18...all 2nd year Nina's: OCTOBER That's very similar to what is forecasted by latest CANSIPS: That blend has a great first half of winter: DEC/JAN Then ridging takes over in FEB: FEB Pretty intriguing with the October if that forecast verifies.
