stadiumwave

CanSips August update 500mb is golden for winter for eastern 1/2. Too bad its CanSips https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2018080100&fh=4

JAMSTEC July update is a pretty epic DEC-FEB. Below normal temps & above normal precip for entire east. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/e/seasonal/outlook.html

Considering NMME's extreme warm bias that's a colder winter.

2009-10 of course is going to end up being at least "an" analog with solar. ENSO will probably be similar although doubt we get a moderate Nino like that winter. Summer so far 500mb is polar opposite of 2009. 2014-15 could be another possible analog simply because this just has the feel of strong west coast ridging (PDO is going to spike, signs there already) & tendency for +NAO leaves a very cold source region over east Canada & Hudson Bay. Low solar will more than likely enhance high latitude blocking, most likely in the EPO region or at least currently has that feel. I will say this, still coming out of a Nina background state, I'm not sold on super +NAO continuing just yet. I think NE ends up colder with +NAO with this setup versus having a -NAO. Of course, not exactly what you want to hear as far as big noreasters, however, all its takes is a transient -NAO block to work magic. From my standpoint smart money overall at this point is a colder than average NE. AND REMEMBER, these are very preliminary thoughts. Lots can change depending on ENSO..etc.

I'm not sure why you say that. It clearly has an east-based look currently. CFS forecasts it to remain that way in DEC.

In his defense...that is not how the media reported it. Big headlines & the words unprecedented used. I looked at the satellite data & thought "What the heck?", it's not open.

Lol...ok

Actually...to me it's pretty remarkable we don't beat 2012 considering where we started.

Anyone know where GlobalWarmer poster is? I figured he'd be all over this. Kind of concerns me he's not posting. I believe he was previously named frivolous.

Folks who were hoping for 2012 cyclone repeat forget that volume is better than that summer.

Agree on both accounts

Considering where we started I think it's remarkable that this year wasn't a record melt!

If I've learned anything before it's don't count your chickens before they hatch. Anything can happen of the next few weeks & catch everyone off guard. I'm not implying it will but unforseen weather patterns never ceases to amaze me.

Oh me....I'm scared...lol.

Some of you live in scientific lala land. Stop fantasizing

LMAO...does your mind stay in fantasy land?

It's well known that drought intensifies the heat....not vice versa

http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2014/12/08/california-drought-cause-noaa/20095869/

http://www.hindawi.com/journals/amete/2015/481834/

The warming of the last 1.5 years & the NOAA hiatus busting paper has ignited life & boldness to alarmism in every thread.

Hansen is a tool...

My abs hurt now...lol.

There is no way of knowing a %....lol

When has there ever been a period of history without extreme weather events? There hasn't been, so you're right. If PDO goes negative & we have a couple of strong La Nina's expect a couple of huge tornado years...but it's not AGW. AGW is real but is WAY over hyped in its role in extreme weather. To me extreme weather events that have always occurred has become a launching pad for sensationalists like yourself to say it's a carbon footprint. The last coue of severe winters were blamed on AGW but recent peer reviewed literature has shut that up: http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/study-climate-change-does-not-cause-extreme-winters.html